Projections Update: Brewers Climb the Ladder

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One game into the NLCS, the Brewers made the first move to establish themselves as the representatives of the National League, likely to face the Rangers in the 2011 Fall Classic. Milwaukee is now 3:7 to win the NLCS and 3:1 to win it all.

So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus. Raw numbers and figures of note after the jump.

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Figures of Note:

  • Milwaukee increased their WS% by 4.7 points with their win last night over the Cardinals.
  • The Cardinals suffered a WS% drop of 4.1 points.
  • They are now 7:3 to win the NLCS and 10:1 to win it all.
  • The Rangers lost 1.5 WS% points due to Milwaukee's win.
  • Most likely World Series match-ups, in order: Texas vs. Milwaukee: 52.6%; Texas vs. St. Louis 22.5%; Detroit Tigers vs. Milwaukee: 17.5%; Detroit vs. St. Louis 7.4%.
Probability of Postseason Series Victory 10/10/11
Inputs Outputs
Team Seed Talent LCS% WS% WS HFA
TEX 2 0.640 75.1% 51.8% -1.6%
DET 3 0.589 24.9% 14.5% -0.6%
MIL 2 0.554 70.1% 24.6% 1.6%
STL WC 0.530 29.9% 9.1% 0.6%
AL 66.3% -2.2%
NL 33.7% 2.2%

 

Methodology: Our simulator predicts the outcome of every possible single-game match-up in every potential five- and seven-game series match-up between the eight teams currently in line for a playoff berth. Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Hit List serves as proxy for true talent. We use the Log5 method to predict single-game match-ups, adjusting each number to reflect a 0.540 home field advantage (based on Matt Swartz's findings). The simulator does not adjust for roster discrepancies, pitching rotations, or any stadium-specific home field advantages that may or may not exist.

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