2004 MLB Draft Results: Career WAR to Date

by Justin Bopp on Jan 28, 2011 10:02 AM EST in Visuals Above Replacement

Enlarges.

Notes, Thoughts, and Questions:

1. 168 out of 1500 players in this draft have reached the Majors at least once and played enough to earn WAR (which could be negative, zero, or positive).

2. 796 pitchers were drafted. 236 of them were lefties, 560 righties.

3. Six years in, players looking toward the Hall of Fame should be somewhere around 18-24 WAR and are probably close to peak production. Only 10-15 more years for them to possibly earn enough to justify their candidacy.

4. Zobrist is having himself a nice little career. But better (even marginally) than Hunter Pence and David Price? I had no idea.

5. Each of the Top 24 picks has seen the biggs except for two: Matthew Bush (Padres, #1 overall) and Wade Townsend (Orioles, #8 overall).

6. Four of the top 8 picks were drafted out of the state of Texas. Three of them played for Rice -- and one of the Rice players just happens to be Townsend, mentioned in previous point.

7. Billy Butler has somehow managed 5 WAR, despite platooning at 1st and DH'ing it much of the time. He was picked two slots after Jered Weaver (19.9 WAR) and one place above Stephen Drew (8.9 WAR).

8. I think Dustin Pedroia might be underrated. And that's playing in a town that isn't very good at underrating things, except when describing how bad they are at underrating things. "We'ah awfully hawd on ah playahs! YOUKAAAAH!!" Is he underrated? Is that even possible?

9. It could be the slightly different scale, but 2004 looks like it has less noise than the 2005 draft. What gives? Is this something where just an extra year has helped the guys in the negatives back up a little bit? Or did they just not get as many chances as the guys that came a year later?

Top 25 to Date:

Player	Pos	WAR
Jered Weaver	RHP	19.9
Justin Verlander	RHP	18.5
Dustin Pedroia	SS	17.7
*Huston Street	RHP	9.7
Yovani Gallardo	RHP	9.6
Stephen Drew	SS	8.9
Kurt Suzuki	C	8.6
Ben Zobrist	2B	8.2
Hunter Pence	OF	6.7
**David Price	LHP	6.7
Mark Reynolds	SS	5.9
J.A. Happ	LHP	5.2
Dallas Braden	LHP	5.1
Billy Butler	3B	5
*Phil Hughes	RHP	4.9
*Adam Lind	1B	4.7
Chris Iannetta	C	4.6
Jonathan Sanchez	LHP	3.8
*J.P. Howell	LHP	3.6
Will Venable	OF	3.6
Seth Smith	OF	3.5
Brad Bergesen	RHP	3.3
Jesse Litsch	RHP	3.3
Jeff Niemann	RHP	3.2
*Blake DeWitt	2B	3.1

*comp pick.

**didn't sign, drafted in 2007. (thanks @rsaggiadi for the heads up)

Data compiled via B-Ref.

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Comments

Yes, Pedroia is underrated

Because the point that guys around here like to make about him is that he’s short and gritty. I think people often forget that he’s a really good ballplayer.

by Lucas Apostoleris on Jan 28, 2011 10:05 AM EST reply actions

Exactly.

People tend to lump him in with the little guys. But he’s far more Chase Utley than he is Nick Punto.

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Jan 28, 2011 10:16 AM EST up reply actions

+1

Beyond the Box Score

by Bill Petti on Jan 28, 2011 12:00 PM EST up reply actions

Regarding this:

1. 168 out of 1500 players in this draft have reached the Majors at least once and played enough to earn non-zero WAR.

What about guys with a WAR of exactly zero who did play in the bigs?

Out of curiosity:
Most PAs, exactly 0 WAR – Willie Montanez (6407)
Most IP, exactly 0 WAR – Bill Carrick (1324.2)

Carrick happened to be nicknamed “Doughnut Bill”, which (obviously) is awesome.

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Jan 28, 2011 10:19 AM EST reply actions

You know what? That's a misstatement on my part.

I was trying to say “played at the MLB level long enough to earn WAR.”

Still, cool facts, Mr. Darowski.

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Jan 28, 2011 10:31 AM EST up reply actions

I remember having a Willie Montanez baseball card

I have no trouble understanding why I’ve never remembered that fact before now.

by The Ancient Mariner on Jan 28, 2011 10:43 AM EST up reply actions

Corrected the OP.

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Jan 28, 2011 10:45 AM EST up reply actions

What about WAR/season?

Some of these guys reach the bigs before others, so by default they have a bit of an edge on career WAR. Would it be worth taking a look at for these visuals?

Beyond the Box Score

by Bill Petti on Jan 28, 2011 1:09 PM EST reply actions

There might be some value there, I guess.

But it’s been 6 full seasons, long enough at least for the youngest members that will ever contend for HoF consideration to reveal themselves.

I started with 2005 and am going backward from there, so we’ll eventually see what a fully-retired draft will look like. Thanks to Jamie Moyer, it might be several more iterations of this before we get there. ;)

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Jan 28, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

I am thinking here of David Price

He was selected in 2004 but went to college and didn’t appear in the bigs until 2008. In only 55 starts he’s accumulated 6.7 WAR while Weaver has had 144 starts to accumulate 19.9 WAR. Weaver has a starts per WAR of 7.24, Price 8.2. Also, Zobrist has had more opportunity than Price to accumulate. Just a thought.

Beyond the Box Score

by Bill Petti on Jan 28, 2011 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

Great points.

Let me consider.

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Jan 28, 2011 2:32 PM EST up reply actions

I think if you make it WAR/700 PA for hitters and /200 IP for pitchers, it'd help the context.

Everyone’s getting to the bigs in different paths and times, so adding that rate stat with the counting stat will help. For instance, once we get to the 2007 draft, Rick Porcello may have accrued more WAR but that’s because Dombrowski put him in High-A and then the bigs by 2009.