Should Reds Fans Worry About Jay Bruce Regressing?

by Bill Petti on Jan 27, 2011 1:01 PM EST in Player Profiles

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Jay Bruce had a career year in 2010, and as a result the Reds extended their young outfielder's contract for 6 years at a cost of $51M.

The question arises whether Bruce's 2010 was the result of a maturing hitter or simply an outlier year. There is evidence on both sides.

Bruce's .366 wOBA in 2010 was driven largely by two factors: 1) a 22% increase in his BABIP relative to his career average, and 2) a 9% inrease in his K% relative to his career average. If we adjust for his career average BABIP, Bruce winds up with a wOBA in 2010 of .313--over 50 points lower than what he actually posted. Adjusting his K% lower based on his career average prior to 2010 only boosts his expected wOBA to .317. So from an outlier perspective the case looks pretty strong given that Bruce's BABIP was 73 points higher than his career average.

If Bruce regresses in terms of his BABIP he'll likely become more volatile as well. Volatility simply refers to his range of performance over any 10-game stretch during the season. In 2010, he had an estimated volatility score of .248, which ranked him about 33rd for batters with >=520 plate appearances. Since BABIP seems to have the largest effect on volatility (I'm still working on the research), a significant regression would not only drive down his wOBA but also the consistency of his performance (volatility of .281 up from .248).

But fear not, Reds fans, there is more to the story. Yes, Bruce's BABIP was up 20% relative to his career average, but that career encompassed only two major league seasons and ~750 plate appearances. Bruce always had high BABIP numbers in the minors and many are projecting him to once again post a solid BABIP (Bill James - .314).

Bruce also made strides in terms of his ability to hit more than just fastballs. According to Fangrahs, Bruce made significant progress in his ability to drive off-speed pitches--well, except for sliders--they still eat him up. (Of course, there is a bit of chicken-and-egg here with BABIP and pitch values).

Season	wFB	wSL	wCT	wCB	wCH	wSF
2008	4.8	-4.3	-0.4	0.8	2.1	-0.5
2009	8.2	-3.2	-1.0	-0.2	-1.8	1.4
2010	5.8	-3.7	2.5	4.3	4.2	1.3

Moreover, he's making more contact on pitches outside of the zone (53.7%, likely off-speed pitches) and generally getting ahead in the count more often (his first-pitch strike % has decreased from 60.4% to 54.6% since 2008).

If James and others are right, that we can count on Bruce's improvement in BABIP to remain relatively stable, he might regress a bit, but he'll certainly turn in a solid offense year. However, if his BABIP drops back below .300 be prepared for a more average year in 2011.

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His career BABIP is low because last year his BABIP was atrocious.

by jsl413 on Jan 27, 2011 2:16 PM EST reply actions

Actually...

His BABIP last year was pretty good (.334). In 2008 it was .296 and in 2009 it was .221, which was the atrocious year. Given his minor league BABIP was high it’s likely he’ll hover around .300—so he’ll regress a little, but should still be solid.

Beyond the Box Score

by Bill Petti on Jan 27, 2011 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

What do you think about Votto in 2011?

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Jan 27, 2011 2:28 PM EST up reply actions

Votto also looks solid

His BABIP was only 3.3% better in 2010 than his average so far (.349 prior to this year), and his XBH% is a solid 11.5%. He’s been awesome since day one. His K’s were up about 10%, but he’s still relatively low for a slugger (under 20%).

The only risk is he’s going to see less fastballs next year. In 2010 he saw 56.4% fastballs but he crushed them for 40 RAA (more than double 2009). Given his only real weakness seems to be on curveballs (.9 RAA down from 8.0 in 2009) I can imagine pitchers throwing more his way.

Problem is he makes contact almost 70% of the time outside the zone. Damned if you do…

Beyond the Box Score

by Bill Petti on Jan 27, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

He also posted the highest HR/FB% in the league last season at 25%

In his career, he is at 19.9% and his HRs will drop as a result.

Let’s say he hits 148 flyballs again, but this time only 20% go out, then the HRs drop from 37 down to 30. Those 7 extra flyballs may become outs as the standard average on flyball BABIP is .188, so that would drop his average slightly.

So, let’s say he loses 7 HRs from last season and only records hits on two of those balls. Then he has 172 hits instead of 177. It would drop his average from .324 down to .314.

So, if you think his HR/FB% will drop like I do, back to 18-19%, then unless he grows in other areas, the HRs and Avg. will take a hit.

Anyway, back to Bruce.

Roy Halladay just woke up in a cold sweat. He had a dream about this rodeo clown with a stick...

by The Czar on Jan 31, 2011 12:15 PM EST up reply actions

Right

So the question is whether you believe his ’09 or his ’10 season is closer to his actual skill level. I tend to believe in his ’10 more.

by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 27, 2011 2:47 PM EST up reply actions

By last year, I mean 2 years ago, sorry.

by jsl413 on Jan 27, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

I think it's more likely that he'll BABIP .320+ as he matures as a hitter.

He’s gonna hit 30+ bombs a year though, so that’ll help.

by jsl413 on Jan 27, 2011 5:03 PM EST up reply actions

Its kind of like the Rickie Weeks argument

If you ask me. Sure he will regress a bit, but his over performing babip isnt as up there as his awful one was down there. Id say a fair estimate for Jay Bruce would still be an all star type season at 4.6 WAR or so.

Weeks had some of the very same issues helping him that Bruce did last year, a bit of luck, health, and more walks. The sheer amount of performance gained by both players was helped by a full season. As a side note I have Weeks doing the same as Bruce next year, but falling more steeply, but still to an All Star level (4.3 WAR).

by backtocali on Jan 27, 2011 2:27 PM EST reply actions

I don't think this is complete without giving his xBABIP's.

2010: .303
2009: .294
2008: .315

So his xBABIP’s have been stable.

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by Mike Rogers on Jan 27, 2011 8:37 PM EST reply actions

Great point, Mike

So this would seem to back up the general conclusion that while he’ll regress, he’ll still have a BABIP at around or above .300. So we should still expect a solid season in 2011 if not the same performance as 2010.

Beyond the Box Score

by Bill Petti on Jan 27, 2011 8:58 PM EST up reply actions

I still don't buy this :)

He was hitting the ball harder each month he got away from that broken wrist. The home runs at the end of the year were a little fluky, but I’m still convinced he can BABIP .315. And I think he’s gonna hit more home runs – so maybe the average drops a smidge, but wOBA probably won’t!

by jsl413 on Jan 28, 2011 12:49 AM EST up reply actions

So let's say...

…Bruce’s actual BABIP was .299 last year (which was his expected BABIP). That would give him about a .340 wOBA. Let’s assume he does have a BABIP of .315 next year. That would give him an approximate wOBA of .352. If that’s the case he would need to hit about 28 home runs to match his wOBA from last year (.366). So it isn’t a stretch, since his XBH% would be in-line with his career average (between 9-10%). But if he’s more of a natural .300 BABIP guy he’d have to hit more HR’s as a percentage of all hits. It’s possible, since he’s a lifetime 21% HR/H guy and last year he was at 17%.

Beyond the Box Score

by Bill Petti on Jan 28, 2011 9:16 AM EST up reply actions

Thanks for humoring my stubbornness.

My reaction was mostly to the suggestion that Bruce might ever wOBA .320 or something. He’s much better than that. Plus – he’s going to be like… 24? this year. He’s shown improvement in his approach to the plate each year, and as he got healthy/further away from the wrist injury, the power numbers jumped up. 28 home runs is only 3 more than last year, so that shouldn’t be hard for Jay.

The big question for me (for Bruce) is if he can become more of a line drive hitter. Most of his seem to be 1-hop singles (line drives), decently hit grounders, or home runs. He didn’t hit a ton of doubles and I’d love to see him just hit more XBH generally.

This got rambly, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bruce be a .370 woba guy. Everyone is talking about Jay Bruce regressing because they’re looking at his MLB numbers, but he was a really early arrival at age 21. As this article points out, Bruce BABIP’d .373 in the minors and had a really bizarre sophomore year. I tend to believe in that article, but maybe that’s just because I’m a fan.

by jsl413 on Jan 28, 2011 9:42 AM EST up reply actions

Thanks for humoring my stubbornness.

by jsl413 on Jan 28, 2011 9:42 AM EST up reply actions

If I use the same thing I did with Votto above and looked at HR/FB%

instead of just his BABIP, it might suggest that he might actually be better next season.

His HR/FB% last season was 15.3% and he is at 17.1% in his career.

He hit 163 flyballs. If he would have put 17.1% out of the park, it would have resulted in 3 more HRs. Since HRs don’t factor into BABIP, it would not have changed that. If he gets 3 more hits/HRs, he would have finished with 28 last season and a .287 average.

Given his size and propensity to hit flyballs, I see Bruce as a guy that is more likely to push a 20% HR/FB ratio (he was actually that high as a rookie!) over a 15% ratio. If that happens and you see that growth as he goes into his power years, then he will improve dramatically.

A 20% guy with 163 flyballs would hit 32.6 HRs. I think that is coming for him, especially in that stadium. Those extra 7-8 hits will also raise his average, even if his BABIP falls a little bit.

Roy Halladay just woke up in a cold sweat. He had a dream about this rodeo clown with a stick...

by The Czar on Jan 31, 2011 12:41 PM EST reply actions