Batter Bounce-Back (or Fall-Off) Tool

by Bill Petti on Jan 26, 2011 2:57 PM EST in Visuals Above Replacement

Building on my previous article on the impact of BABIP, K's, and BB's on hitters in 2010, I put together this interactive tool for folks to quickly examine the bounce-back (or fall-off) potential of hitters (best viewed in Wide format. Alternatively, you can view the tool here). The gist of the findings was that abnormal changes in BABIP have the biggest impact on performance followed by K% and BB%. The tool allows you to select a player and see what their performance in 2010 would have looked like had their BABIP, K% and BB% been in line with their previous 3-year averages.

The reference line marks the league average wOBA based on the weights that I used (see previous article). The table shows the % change between 2010 and players' 3-year average for each of the three measures so you can get a sense of what drove their performance.

While not a perfect tool, it should give you some idea as to how players might perform in 2011.

I've embedded a version below the fold.

Enjoy!

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Excellent!

A DRaysBay writer from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on Jan 26, 2011 3:19 PM EST reply actions

Looovvvvvvvve

This is incredible.

Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.

by J-Doug on Jan 27, 2011 2:27 PM EST reply actions

Yeah, this is bad ass.

Definitely needs more attention.

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Jan 27, 2011 2:34 PM EST reply actions

Thanks guys!

I’m finding it’s opening up lots of avenues for research—just makes it easier to do some quick, back-of-the-envelope calculations to see whether someone is at risk for negative regress or the opposite. If someone’s BABIP was ridiculously low or high relative to their career you can quickly zoom in on those numbers and see if you think it’s a fluke or if there’s more to it. Would love any suggestions for improvement.

Beyond the Box Score

by Bill Petti on Jan 27, 2011 2:46 PM EST up reply actions