Ted Williams - Greatest HR Hitter ever?

by PTPBob9 on Jan 24, 2011 8:02 PM EST

Hey fellow baseball bloggers,

This is my first Baseball Blog but I have been a very passionate baseball fan for six, nearly seven decades. I was born in the Boston area in 1941 when "The Kid" hit .406! How many .400 hitters since? Zero!

I also believe with one new headline and one changed headline, Ted is the new Home Run King! What is the new headline? Seventy Years Ago, today (January 24, 1940) - Red Sox-Yankees announce blockbuster trade, Ted for Joe!!!! The impact of that trade, conservatively increases Williams HRs by 7 HRs/year 140 HRs

Changed Headline (December 7, 1941) - USA and Japan sign a long term free trade agreement (25 years)! The impact of this deal adds four + years to Ted's career which adds 156 more HRs. There is no Korean war if we have peace with Japan.

Result - Ted goes from 521 HRs to 817 HRs #1. Hank Aaron is now 2nd with 755. Barry Bonds drops to third because they keep 154 game schedule and Barry loses 5% down to 723. The Babe will be fourth with 714. How many HRs would Bonds have lost if he did not do steroids? If 10% he drops 72 more to 651. If 20% he drops to 579!

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This post contains some of the strangest reasoning I’ve seen on this site. I’ll leave it at that.

by Delicious Cake on Jan 24, 2011 8:50 PM EST reply actions 3 recs

Thats a lot of 'ifs'

I'm Buck Melanoma. Moley Russell's wart. Not her wart. Not her wart! I'm... I'm the wart. She's my tumor. My... my growth. My... uh, my pimple. I'm Uncle Wart. Just old Buck "Wart" Russell. That's what they call me, or Melanoma Head. - Uncle Buck

by Andiamo Cuccioli on Jan 25, 2011 8:08 AM EST reply actions

What if the deadball era ended ten years earlier and Babe Ruth was always a position player?

That adds a few homeruns to Ruth’s career total.

"The Mets are gonna be amazin'!" - Casey Stengel
"Bounding and astounding!" - Clyde Frazier

by Russ on Jan 27, 2011 10:35 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

If I understand what you're saying...

You’re saying that if Ted Williams had played for the Yankees he would have hit an additional seven home runs per year. I don’t understand the reasoning behind this. A quick glance at the park effects on baseball-reference.com tells me that during Williams playing days Fenway favored batters by five to eight percent while Yankee Stadium was basically neutral. So presumably the change in home ball parks would not help Williams. So this does not make sense to me.

If you could explain where those home runs would come from I would appreciate it.

by Indian Bob on Jan 27, 2011 12:04 PM EST reply actions

It's based on the idea that Yankee Stadium was beneficial to lefty HR hitters

Whereas Fenway was beneficial to righty HR hitters. Which didn’t help Ted so much.

by psiogen on Jan 27, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions

Okay

I don’t know any historical data on park effect splits. The best data I know of is from statcorner which indicates that in the last years of old Yankee Stadium (2007-2008) the difference in park effects on left-handed home runs between Yankee Stadium and Fenway is about 10 percent. If you assume that Williams would play half of his games on the road this would boost his home runs by about five percent.

What is suggested in the OP is that a move to the Yankees would boost Williams home run rate by roughly 20 percent (assuming 650 PA/year) it is further stated that this 20 percent boost is a conservative estimation. This 20 percent boost would imply a 40 percent split for left-handed home runs between Fenway and old Yankee Stadium (assuming park effects alone would account for this boost). To me this seems to be a considerable overstatement of the difference in ballparks and not a conservative estimation at all.

by Indian Bob on Jan 28, 2011 8:06 PM EST up reply actions

Are the 07-08 numbers relevant?

The major renovation in the 70s meant that it was a completely different stadium from the one in the 40s and 50s. But overall, yeah, that seems to be a very aggressive estimation of the splits.

by mookstra2 on Jan 29, 2011 7:40 PM EST reply actions

reply fail

see Indian Bob’s comment directly above from 1/28.

by mookstra2 on Jan 29, 2011 7:41 PM EST up reply actions

He is right about Ted but didn't mention Joe

Very good post.Had that deal been made,and without the wars, Ted would have hit those HR’s. Most younger fan are not aware that all of Ted’s HR’S were to right or center.He never took advantage of the Monster. Had he played in Detroit, it might have been a thousand. The other side of the coin is what Joe D might have done at Fenway? The Stadium, with those ridiculous dimensions robbed Joe of plenty. If he had been at Fenway,and, had he not retired early, he could have approached 800 plus. Sure,there are alot of what ifs,but thats part of the fun of baseball.

by Robert57 on Jan 30, 2011 5:15 PM EST reply actions

There would be no reason for the Yankees to trade DiMaggio

He was in his prime as his 56-game hitting streak of 1941 shows. His defense far outstripped Williams, so what would the Yankees gain? It would be like St Louis trading Albert Pujols one-for-one. It just would not happen.

Japan and American were going to war, eventually. The real problems surfaced way way earlier. Japan invaded China in 1931, took over Manchuria, and had sights on US territory (the Philippines) for years. If you want to rewrite history, easily, take away the 1923 Great Kantō earthquake and the 1924 Japanese Exclusion Act by the US Congress. Those laid the groundwork for war.

Officially awaiting the 2011 MLB season

by One won lost won on Jan 31, 2011 2:12 PM EST reply actions

I’m perhaps the biggest DiMaggio fan I know, and I would trade DiMaggio for Williams straight up.
Joe D was several years older than Williams, more injury prone, and a constant hold out headache for the front office.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Feb 4, 2011 11:06 PM EST up reply actions

Ruth any day and twice on Sunday

Although they played in different eras, Ruth’s power numbers are overwhelming. Ruth lead the league in Slugging 13 times in 14 years. Insane. Had he been a hitter earlier on in his career, Ruth may have surpassed 800 HR. Even if you give Williams 5 more years due to the wars, he may not have been at 700 HR. Williams was an amazing player and perhaps the greatest “pure” hitter, but Ruth combined average and power and his greatness is undeniable. Just remember, foul poles were added to gauge the distance on Ruth’s homers. PS – Neither he nor Mantle hit weak homers to right.

by Jpyanks on Feb 9, 2011 5:06 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

Joe D at Fenway

Nice post. All of what you said may have been,but, had that trade been made, how many HR’s would that have given Joe D? Playing in the “Death Valley” that was Yankee stadium at the time,Joe had many a long fly die at the warning track. In Fenway, they would have been HR"s. I believe Joe lost some time to the military and to injuries. He would have had at least 500 HR’s had the trade been made and there had been no war.Had Joe played his whole career with Boston,he might have had 800. Ted’s favorite place to hit was actually Tiger Stadium.

by Robert57 on Feb 18, 2011 8:36 AM EST reply actions