The Top 10 Remaining Free Agents
This year's MLB free agent class didn't have as many impact names as the NBA's, but it still boasted some of the better players in the game. Lee, Beltre, Werth, Crawford... these guys are legitimate difference-makers. But they've all signed already, and we still have weeks before Spring Training even begins. Teams that were hoping to land an impact player this offseason, someone who could provide a massive upgrade, probably missed out on their last chance when the Cubs traded for the eminently available Matt Garza last week.
But that's not to say that we've ran out of free agents that can offer some serious value. Every offseason, we see guys sign after the New Year that end up being integral to their team's success. Among the bigger names that signed on January 13 or later during the previous offseason: Adam LaRoche, Colby Lewis, Jose Valverde, Joel Pineiro, Miguel Tejada, Jon Garland, Ben Sheets, Jim Thome, Kevin Gregg, Orlando Hudson, Joaquin Benoit and Johnny Damon. So we're not yet at the point where teams are peering over a wasteland of aging reserves, fringe starters, fungible relievers and Quad-A guys.
So before we get to that point in a month or two, let's a look at the top-10 free agents left on the market. Also, I'd like to note that I'm excluding Andy Pettite. Yeah, he's a free agent, but he's a free agent with only one potential destination.. at least to me, his situation just isn't that interesting to talk about. I'm also excluding guys who have agreed to deals but haven't officially signed, like Brad Penny.
10) 1B Russell Branyan
He's limited to first base, he's going to strike out one-third of the time, and he's 35-years-old, but Russell Branyan can still hit an awful lot against right-handed pitching. Over the past three seasons, he's compiled a .264/.361/.553 line against them. There are few teams in the league that couldn't use that kind of overall production and power. Most teams don't like to "clog their roster" with players like Branyan that are limited in the field and can't play every day, but Branyan is the kind of bat that should come cheap enough to make an exception, because he's going to smack 25 homers with a good OBP in part-time duty for someone.
9) RHP Jon Rauch
If you're a baseball team in need of a decent center for pick-up basketball games, the 6-11 Rauch is presumably your man. But funny enough, it also turns out that he's a pretty decent reliever. He's not going to blow you away with anything other than his height, but over the past five seasons he's been a heavily used, solid reliever. He's traded some strikeouts for grounders over the past couple years, but it hasn't hurt his performance: he set career-bests in ERA and FIP with the Twins in 2010. He's not likely to repeat ERA/FIP marks around 3, but he seems like a good bet for a solid year.
8) RHP Grant Balfour
Teams in need of a power-throwing set-up man presumably are looking Balfour's way right now. His price has dropped to the point where people are wondering if he'll have to settle for a one-year deal, which could potentially be a huge bargain. He hasn't been able to match his 2008 dominance (1.54 ERA, 2.22 FIP) in the past two seasons, but he was still a high-quality reliever in 2010. He's put up 4.6 wins over the past three seasons, a really strong mark for a non-closing reliever, so past performance isn't exactly the issue. Here are the issues, I'm guessing: his velocity (dropped from 94.6 to 92.7) and his whiff rate (11.6% to 8.9%).
7) DH Vladimir Guerrero
Vlad got a lot of attention from the mainstream media because of his strong traditional numbers and the Rangers' success last year, but it'd be prudent to remember that for all of the homers and RBIs, he was still a DH with a .340 OBP. He put in a solid 2.6 WAR season, but this wasn't the return of the old Guerrero. There are reasons to be optimistic; particularly, his low strikeout rate and the fact that he's Vladimir Guerrero. But ZiPS projects Guerrero to essentially repeat his performance from 2010, and I think that's a fairly optimistic projection.
6) LHP Brian Fuentes
Fuentes might be getting more attention than he deserves because he has 187 career saves, but that doesn't mean that he can't be a very useful bullpen piece. He's an extreme flyballer, which doesn't really help things, but he's absolutely dominant against lefties so an excellent LOOGY is basically the worst-case scenario. In 154 innings against lefties in his career, he's put up a 2.73 FIP, but his struggles against RH hitters have worsened in recent years. He shouldn't be anywhere near a closer role, and teams should really keep that in mind when considering what kind of contract to offer him. But if he's willing to take a reasonable one-year deal, he could be a really nice addition for someone.
5) OF/DH Johnny Damon
Damon's defensive progression has been interesting. He was an above-average defender in center field, but after declining he moved to left field, where he was initially above-average. But after additional decline, he's now at the point where he doesn't really belong at any outfield position for extended periods of time. What he can still offer to teams, though, is the ability to get on base: his OBP hasn't dipped below .350 since 2003. He's more of a role player now, someone who can be a decent DH and play left field in a pinch, but his OBP skills still give him value.
4) DH Jim Thome
If Damon is a sort-of DH, then Thome is definitely a full-blown DH. After playing a total of 28 innings at first base with Chicago in 2006/2007, he's become absolutely unplayable at any position but DH. That hasn't stopped him from being a valuable player, though. Since becoming a full-time DH in 2006, Thome's bat has been nearly 150 runs above average, although he's slowly began to lose value against left-handed pitching. But that doesn't really matter, though, because Thome is still an elite hitter against the majority of pitchers. In 2010, he put up a .302/.455/.698 line against right-handed pitching, a mind-blowingly strong mark. With a 1.056 OPS against RHP in his career, Thome seems like a lock to be the key portion of a very good DH platoon.
3) LHP Jeff Francis
The former Rockie seems to be entirely underrated by many who have analyzed the free agent class. I know that we're talking about a pitcher that had shoulder surgery in 2008, missed all of 2009, and put up a 5.00 ERA in 104 innings in 2010. But once you get beyond that, I think there's some massive bargain potential here. He'll never be an ace, but his stuff is pretty much all the way back, he's only 30, and his underlying numbers from last season were actually pretty strong. His FIP and xFIP marks from last season would've been full-season career-bests, primarily thanks to shockingly good command. He'll never rack up the strikeouts, but lefties that can avoid walks and induce grounders can generally end up being awfully effective. Keep an eye on Francis; he's the kind of guy that could be the bargain of the winter.
2) DH Manny Ramirez
Nobody seems to want Manny, and I'm not really sure why. I mean, yeah, he can't really field anymore, and he's not exactly the glue to keep a clubhouse together. But this guy just batted .298/.409/.460 in 320 PA.. and people were disappointed! We might not get to see the power that's produced 555 homers and 547 doubles in 17 seasons ever again, but that totally ignores the fact that even a 38-year-old Manny Ramirez is still an excellent hitter. If some team can fit him onto their roster and into their clubhouse, he could end up being a massive bargain like Thome was for the Twins last season.
1) RHP Carl Pavano
Speaking of the Yankees, I'm guessing that they didn't expect to hear, "Carl Pavano: The Offseason's Top Remaining Free Agent," any time soon after the way he finished his Yankee tenure. But that's exactly where the finesse right-hander sits after putting together consecutive, high-quality performances in the American League the past two seasons. Pavano's never been a big strikeout guy, and things aren't any different now: Pavano's value comes from limiting walks, inducing grounders and eating up innings. He's put up 7 WAR over the past two years, and should have a positive impact on somebody's rotation next season.
16 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Grant Balfour
I’m guessing Balfour’s biggest issue is his type A status. How many teams will give up a first/second-rounder for a setup man?
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 14, 2011 10:45 AM EST reply actions
Excuse me, the rumor mill is moving fast. What I meant to say was...
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
I'm typing too fast for my own good
You can exclude the A’s because their first-rounder is protected.
"Juuuuust a bit outside" - Harry Doyle
'sok
I said “second-rounder,” too, so it’s still a fair point.
Anyway, I think that the type A status still hurts Balfour on the market even if he does score a multi-year contract, by cutting down the number of suitors. I’d have like my Pirates to get in on Balfour, but not at the cost of the first pick of the second round. (Which is of course diluted by all those stupid sandwich round picks; I hate the free-agent comp system.)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 14, 2011 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
in fact
Aren’t the A’s the very last team to have a protected first-rounder? Looking at this, they pick 18th in the first round, after three comp picks for teams that didn’t sign their 2010 first-rounders, which puts them 15th. So they had the least to lose of any team that could’ve signed Balfour. (Even Tampa Bay had more to lose, since if they had re-signed him they wouldn’t have got the A’s second-round pick or the sandwich pick.)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 14, 2011 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
manny’s a joke – I hope he’s out of baseball. He’s sucked since he stopped taking roids. Who wants a dh who hits singles?
The Jruth shall be told.
I'm not really even sure what to say to this
I don’t think it’s entirely clear whether his decline is because of steroids or because of aging. Either way, he’s still an excellent hitter that would provide an upgrade at DH for the vast majority of teams. His numbers in 2009 were 48% above the league average, and in 2010 they were 41% above the league average.
You can dislike Manny baecause he cheated, and you can act like you don’t want him on your team. But please don’t act like he’s no longer a good hitter.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
Ah, shoot, that was meant to be a reply for packimop
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Jan 14, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
The only thing I can do besides say wow.
Is wonder whether that post was sarcastic or not. It seems too much.
Kicking knowledge in the face.
Just thought it was funny
that mere hours after posting this, Thome, Francis, and Balfour all signed.
by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 14, 2011 3:14 PM EST reply actions
And I had to edit this before I went to bed last night
To replace Soriano near the top (had him at No. 2) with Branyan at No. 10.
And honestly, I love the Thome and Francis signings. The fact that both of these guys signed for $3M and $2M in guaranteed money, respectively, is mind-blowing to me. I think Francis ends up becoming a nice bargain for the Royals, a good depth signing considering how ugly their rotation looks.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Jan 14, 2011 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
Do you think he's enough to hold off the
supposed avalanche of talent from exposure too quickly? Is there more than potential trade-bait here? Looks to me like DM making a somewhat safe bet.
See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp
I mean, Francoeur got more guaranteed money than Francis
So regardless of how they use Francis, I think it’s a really solid investment. I don’t think he’s a long-term piece of the team, but I do think he’ll be effective enough to lessen the team’s need to promote guys like Montgomery, Duffy and Lamb too quickly.
Part of me is wondering if teams know something about Francis that we don’t, because signing him for $2M seems like a bargain to me.
Baseball is my preferred sport. It should be yours, too.
I'm an editor for Beyond the Box Score, an SB Nation blog.
by Satchel Price on Jan 14, 2011 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
Steroids, age or whatever, in the end he is good at what he has to do, and that is hitting. While he makes that job correctly, Ok, ok, he cheated but in the end he is still a good player and for some people like me, that is what it matters.
Q&A with Michael Jordan
by dominiquecraddock on Jan 15, 2011 4:14 AM EST reply actions

by 


































