How Will Busch Affect Berkman?

by Chris Spurlock on Jan 12, 2011 12:50 PM EST in Visuals Above Replacement

When a player moves from team to team, and thus from one home stadium to another, some funky things can happen. Sometimes he performs better than he ever has, and other times his numbers tank. What will happen to Lance Berkman in 2011?
Click to embiggen, if you please
When the St. Louis Cardinals signed Berkman, I initially shrugged it off and thought little of the deal. To me, he seemed old and on the decline, but I thought he might fit into Tony La Russa's lineup much in the same way Larry Walker did in 2004-2005 where he posted a combined 3.9 rWAR. (Walker is actually Berkmans #5 comp. in terms of other players of the same age [click to see graph of creepy similarity].)
But, after a few weeks, I decided to give it another look. My first thought? He played most of his career in a really funky stadium, and I wonder how that might affect him going forward. So, I checked out his spray chart from the last three seasons at Minute Maid, and then overlaid that on his new digs at Busch Stadium III.

The thing that struck me is that no matter how often I watch games played in Houston, I always underestimate just how strangely that park is shaped. 435' in center and only 315' down the left field line? It's not quite The Polo Grounds, but it's still pretty messed up (and don't even get me started on the hill and the flag pole).

Anyway, it turns out that what I expected is true: Berkman hits better at Minute Maid than he does at Busch. In Berkman's career in games at Minute Maid, these were his numbers: .976 OPS .327 BABIP 105 tOPS+. And in contrast, his career at (new) Busch looked like this: .932 OPS .286 BABIP 94 tOPS+.

Now, Berkman has only played 28 games in St. Louis since the new stadium opened in 2006, and it's dangerous to draw conclusions from a small sample. But, I'm worried about him losing his power to left in a bigger stadium (Bill James predicts him to slug .486 this season, which is down from his career average of .530), and I don't think his legs are young enough for him to turn those gappers into many doubles or triples.

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I wonder how much, if at all, he played to Minute Maid park?

That is to say does the distribution of BIP skew toward LF in Minute Maid when compared to his BIP away from Minute Maid. I don’t know how much players really control distribution of their BIP but I’d be intrigued to see a comparison.

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by azruavatar on Jan 12, 2011 12:54 PM EST reply actions

I don't have stadium-specific numbers...

…but b-ref shows his BABIP on balls pulled as a right-handed batter (meaning pulled to left) at .400, and his BABIP on balls pulled as a left-handed batter (meaning pulled to right) at .333. However, his slugging numbers in those situations were reversed, showing .533 pulling as a righty and .649 pulling as a lefty. I’d love to see those numbers applied just to Minute Maid.

by Chris Spurlock on Jan 12, 2011 1:00 PM EST up reply actions

Cromulent article

Sorry, had to say it

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by Mish on Jan 12, 2011 1:31 PM EST reply actions 2 recs

the encouraging thing to take away

as a cardinals fan is that there’s a decent chance he ends up in a platoon. his decline as a RH batter predates known knee issues, so he may just be naturally declining there. but if he has a net loss of 13 HRs over three seasons switching to busch and we assume for simplicity’s sake that half of the 16 he hit to LF were as a RH batter, then we’re probably only losing about 2 or 3 HRs per 600 PAs by switching him to busch

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by prophetjohn on Jan 12, 2011 3:49 PM EST reply actions

how will he hit in busch

not facing cardinals pitching? of those 28 games, how many were started by CY candidates?

by ball in play on Jan 12, 2011 4:23 PM EST reply actions

That would be zero.

If you’re on an opposing team, you can’t not face Cardinal pitching when in their stadium.

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by perfectstrat on Jan 12, 2011 8:08 PM EST up reply actions

I think you're missing his point

To wit, I think he’s trying to argue that Berkman’s numbers at Busch look worse than they otherwise would because of the number of games hitting against Carpenter and Wainwright — that it’s only part park factor, and part the Cards’ staff.

by The Ancient Mariner on Jan 12, 2011 10:20 PM EST up reply actions

Besides that 28 random games mean nothing

Skip Schumaker is a scapegoat

by vivaelpujols on Jan 12, 2011 11:17 PM EST up reply actions

agree, and the author gives a small sample size alert.

if the park dimensions difference in MM / Enron vs Busch III, and how it affects berkmans HR power, is the focus……..

2006 to date……
MM…..HR/AB every 15.68 AB (76 / 1192)
Busch III…..HR/AB every 14.57 AB (7 / 102)

the quality of pitching faced is still a factor, but the raw accumulative totals point to a better HR ratio at busch III in the same timespan.

by ball in play on Jan 13, 2011 9:15 AM EST up reply actions

Well, in general he's done pretty well against them both

Carpenter: 1.329 OPS (50 PA)
Wainwright: .930 OPS (34 PA)

Overall, he has a 1.104 OPS against current Cardinal pitchers over 221 PA.

Beyond the Box Score

by Bill Petti on Jan 13, 2011 7:07 AM EST up reply actions

Spray charts are SO nice looking. Love these.

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by Mike Rogers on Jan 12, 2011 4:55 PM EST reply actions

Agreed.

Great work, Chris. This is exactly the purpose of spray charts to begin with. “What happens if we put him … here?”

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Jan 13, 2011 10:20 AM EST up reply actions

I love that this is so simple and so gorgeous.

It’s easy to get overwhelming when creating something like this. This, instead, is perfect.

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by adarowski on Jan 13, 2011 11:39 AM EST reply actions

Thank you, kind sir.

I even hesitated to make it interactive, fearing that it could take away from the basic point I was trying to make, but I think it turned out nicely.

by Chris Spurlock on Jan 13, 2011 11:54 AM EST up reply actions

Good point, and it turn out nicely.

That said, I think a static version with the two side-by-side could be effective as well (for our other, non-interactive visual artists out there).

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Jan 13, 2011 11:58 AM EST up reply actions

In this case, I think the interactivity helps.

There’s so much detail in the spray charts that it would be hard to visually line them up if they were side by side. I was having the same problem with the WAR/WAE/WAM bullseyes, so that’s why I allowed you to drag them on top of each other.

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by adarowski on Jan 13, 2011 1:22 PM EST up reply actions