2010's Best Base Runners

by Justin Bopp on Jan 10, 2011 12:01 PM EST in Visuals Above Replacement

Enlarges upon clickage.

Equivalent Base Running Runs. Measures the number of runs contributed by a player's advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table.

EqBRR is calculated as the sum of various baserunning components: Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR), Equivalent Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR), Equivalent Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR), Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs (EqHAR) and Equivalent Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR).

Thoughts & Notes:

1. My favorite thing about EQBRR is that stealing bases is always revealed to be not the most important component of a good base runner. While for most of our readers this is a known, the important part for those new to sabermetrics is the realization that stealing bases is a risky proposition that can (and often) hurt the team more than it can help. In fact, the generally accepted rate of base stealing success (SB/CS) required to make the effort worth it is north of 70%.

2. The next best realization is that the most value (at least in this amount of selected data) comes from a player stretching his own hits into extra-base affairs. A great example of this is Elvis Andrus, who hurt his value by getting caught stealing a touch too much (SB/CS = 32/15 = 68%) but more than made up for those few blunders by stretching his singles into more.

3. Michael Bourn: the preeminent base runner. He runs out weak grounders and beats the throw, he stretches his hits as far as possible while knowing when to pull up (and avoid an out), he times his tag up after a fly-ball out impeccably, and he takes advantage of his opponents mistakes with his blistering speed. It's a shame he's not a better hitter.

4. Notably absent from this list: Jose Reyes.

Data: Baseball Prospectus

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=69261

Tweet Comment 15 comments | 1 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Not surprising to see Reyes so far down the list (he's 29th at +3.3 runs)

He missed some time (and most of Spring Training) this year to injuries, and, coming back from his leg problems last year, he was notably more conservative on the base paths. It’ll be interesting to see if he can get back to being the guy who averaged +8 EQBRR from 2005 to 08.

by psiogen on Jan 10, 2011 12:36 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Michael Brantley

Brantley needs to be a good base-runner if he is going to be of value for Cleveland going forward. Looking at BP’s list, he registers at 19th in just 72 games (+4.5). Double that for a full season and he would be among the top 5.

by APV on Jan 10, 2011 12:50 PM EST reply actions

This looks really great.

The stolen base component really stands out to me, too. Love that we can now track other areas of baserunning skills.

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Jan 10, 2011 1:08 PM EST reply actions

Totally awesome

Question: are some of these components more predictive than others?

by Xave on Jan 10, 2011 2:23 PM EST reply actions

What do you mean?

None of these are necessarily predictive without other measures. These are measures from last year’s performance.

If you wanted something like that, you might look at a two or three year cycle of these and then regress for aging. If you were to do that, we might be able to predict that Andrus makes better decisions when stealing next year, for example.

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Jan 10, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions

I think what Xave means

is whether these components do a good job of predicting themselves in future years, and if they are therefore legitimate components.

Blogger and Editor, Rational Pastime Blog. Twitter: @RationalPastime.

by J-Doug on Jan 10, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions

Comment #2 appears wrong

The component that Elvis Andrus scored so well on is advancing bases when the batter (not Andrus, one of his teammates) gets a hit.

See http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=469 and the EQBRR definition you quoted to double-check my thinking.

by Detroit Michael on Jan 10, 2011 2:47 PM EST reply actions

You know, you may be right.

But it may also include both. Let’s see if we can get a BP person to comment and clarify.

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Jan 10, 2011 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

Looks like EqHAR was first described here

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5495

by Detroit Michael on Jan 11, 2011 8:43 AM EST up reply actions

The quote in question:

Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs. The number of theoretical runs contributed by a baserunner or baserunners above what would have been expected given the number and quality of opportunities. EqHAR considers advancement from first on singles, second on singles, and first on doubles and is adjusted for park and based on a multi-year Run Expectancy Matrix.

See Data Differently: Beyond the Box Score | @justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Jan 10, 2011 2:52 PM EST reply actions

Thanks for posting this, Justin.

Also, anything that recognizes Brett Gardner’s brilliance is awesome, in my book.

by Lucas Apostoleris on Jan 10, 2011 3:42 PM EST reply actions

Anything that promotes baserunning as a skill distinct from “being fast” or “a base stealing threat” is welcome in my book. Also, glad to see Andres Torres getting some more love.

A question, though: what falls under the “Other” category?

Et tu, Ribe?

by Solidarity on Jan 11, 2011 1:10 AM EST reply actions

Andrus and pickoffs

Does this deduct what it should regarding PKs? I think Andrus was 32/15, but then you add in ELEVEN pickoffs, and you got some really harmful baserunning.

by William.Hatheway on Jan 11, 2011 12:40 PM EST reply actions

I would be especially interested to see this list with some sort of “raw speed” factor included. That way we could differentiate between guys that are just “fast” and guys that actually have huge base-running skill. While Bourn obviously has both, I’ll bet there are plenty of guys out there with just as much base-running smarts but that will never show up on a list like this because they don’t have as much natural speed.

Identifying the players and teams that maximize their natural speed the best would be both interesting and potentially useful when trying to figure out how to get all players to be better at a “base-running skill”.

by TKilbane on Jan 11, 2011 1:32 PM EST reply actions