BtB Power Rankings: Week 22 -- We're into September
Look! A National League team in the top 5!
"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (*=new this week)
American League: E=Yankees*, C=Twins, W=Rangers, WC=Rays
National League: E=Braves, C=Cardinals, W=Padres, WC=Rockies
Under the Hood
Converting Runs to Wins
Click in the header to sort the tables
| Team | G | RS | eRS | RA | eRA | W% | pW% | cW% | SoS | cW%s | xtW | LgQ | TPI |
| ARI | 135 | 587 | 579 | 680 | 645 | 0.415 | 0.430 | 0.449 | 0.524 | 0.473 | 68 | 0.482 | 0.456 |
| ATL | 135 | 646 | 637 | 520 | 526 | 0.578 | 0.600 | 0.588 | 0.505 | 0.593 | 94 | 0.482 | 0.575 |
| BAL | 135 | 498 | 534 | 687 | 692 | 0.363 | 0.354 | 0.381 | 0.510 | 0.390 | 59 | 0.518 | 0.407 |
| BOS | 134 | 655 | 670 | 590 | 601 | 0.567 | 0.549 | 0.552 | 0.499 | 0.550 | 91 | 0.518 | 0.568 |
| CHW | 133 | 617 | 599 | 543 | 569 | 0.549 | 0.560 | 0.524 | 0.477 | 0.501 | 88 | 0.518 | 0.519 |
| CHC | 135 | 566 | 574 | 647 | 614 | 0.430 | 0.438 | 0.468 | 0.490 | 0.458 | 71 | 0.482 | 0.440 |
| CIN | 134 | 645 | 648 | 553 | 581 | 0.582 | 0.572 | 0.551 | 0.481 | 0.532 | 93 | 0.482 | 0.514 |
| CLE | 135 | 552 | 561 | 668 | 661 | 0.400 | 0.411 | 0.423 | 0.500 | 0.423 | 65 | 0.518 | 0.441 |
| COL | 134 | 579 | 594 | 544 | 541 | 0.522 | 0.529 | 0.543 | 0.507 | 0.550 | 85 | 0.482 | 0.532 |
| DET | 135 | 606 | 628 | 616 | 611 | 0.496 | 0.492 | 0.513 | 0.491 | 0.504 | 81 | 0.518 | 0.522 |
| FLA | 133 | 616 | 603 | 585 | 583 | 0.511 | 0.525 | 0.516 | 0.516 | 0.532 | 83 | 0.482 | 0.514 |
| HOU | 134 | 508 | 500 | 610 | 585 | 0.463 | 0.417 | 0.428 | 0.505 | 0.433 | 74 | 0.482 | 0.416 |
| KCR | 134 | 534 | 547 | 690 | 706 | 0.418 | 0.381 | 0.381 | 0.501 | 0.382 | 67 | 0.518 | 0.399 |
| LAD | 135 | 601 | 596 | 595 | 570 | 0.511 | 0.505 | 0.521 | 0.511 | 0.532 | 83 | 0.482 | 0.514 |
| LAA | 135 | 590 | 559 | 624 | 636 | 0.481 | 0.473 | 0.440 | 0.496 | 0.436 | 77 | 0.518 | 0.454 |
| MIL | 134 | 635 | 661 | 718 | 664 | 0.463 | 0.441 | 0.498 | 0.492 | 0.490 | 76 | 0.482 | 0.472 |
| MIN | 135 | 648 | 644 | 545 | 549 | 0.578 | 0.580 | 0.574 | 0.486 | 0.560 | 93 | 0.518 | 0.578 |
| NYY | 135 | 740 | 712 | 554 | 596 | 0.630 | 0.636 | 0.584 | 0.491 | 0.575 | 101 | 0.518 | 0.593 |
| NYM | 135 | 550 | 567 | 549 | 585 | 0.489 | 0.501 | 0.486 | 0.517 | 0.503 | 79 | 0.482 | 0.486 |
| OAK | 134 | 553 | 554 | 529 | 536 | 0.493 | 0.521 | 0.515 | 0.488 | 0.502 | 80 | 0.518 | 0.520 |
| PHI | 135 | 605 | 587 | 529 | 561 | 0.570 | 0.561 | 0.521 | 0.514 | 0.535 | 91 | 0.482 | 0.517 |
| PIT | 134 | 473 | 497 | 735 | 695 | 0.336 | 0.304 | 0.348 | 0.505 | 0.353 | 55 | 0.482 | 0.337 |
| SDP | 133 | 636 | 601 | 518 | 512 | 0.571 | 0.595 | 0.574 | 0.500 | 0.574 | 93 | 0.482 | 0.557 |
| SEA | 135 | 444 | 459 | 587 | 586 | 0.393 | 0.378 | 0.392 | 0.498 | 0.390 | 64 | 0.518 | 0.408 |
| SFG | 135 | 595 | 586 | 528 | 574 | 0.548 | 0.555 | 0.510 | 0.511 | 0.521 | 88 | 0.482 | 0.503 |
| STL | 132 | 616 | 611 | 527 | 549 | 0.530 | 0.573 | 0.550 | 0.490 | 0.540 | 86 | 0.482 | 0.522 |
| TBR | 134 | 670 | 637 | 523 | 548 | 0.619 | 0.614 | 0.570 | 0.503 | 0.573 | 99 | 0.518 | 0.590 |
| TEX | 134 | 636 | 628 | 552 | 591 | 0.560 | 0.566 | 0.528 | 0.480 | 0.508 | 90 | 0.518 | 0.526 |
| TOR | 134 | 623 | 637 | 592 | 557 | 0.515 | 0.524 | 0.563 | 0.504 | 0.567 | 85 | 0.518 | 0.585 |
| WSN | 135 | 550 | 559 | 630 | 593 | 0.422 | 0.437 | 0.473 | 0.509 | 0.482 | 70 | 0.482 | 0.464 |
G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals. If you don't like the league adjustments or strength of schedule adjustments, click in the header and sort by this column to get an "unsullied" ranking.
SoS = Strength of Schedule. This is an iterative weighted average of the component-based winning percentages of a team's opponents. Described in this post.
cW%s = Schedule-adjusted Component Winning Percentage. Calculated by applying SoS to cW% with the log5 method, as described in this post.
xTW = Extrapolated wins. Based on current real wins to date, and extrapolated wins over the rest of the season. Extrapolations are based on an average of cW% and cW%s, as justified in this post.
LgQ = League Quality. The AL has superior talent to the NL (justification here and here, and modified most recently here. A good introduction to the topic is this post). The number shown is an estimated true talent level (in winning percentage) of the two leagues were they to be able to play one other for a large number of games. It's based on the last two years of interleague, with a small adjustment toward 0.500 to account for the fact that the leagues do play one another and thus have already had a small effect on one another's performance.
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on cW%s, after adjustment for league quality. Think of this as the W% we'd expect teams to have if they were all in one big league and were allowed to play 10,000 games vs. every team.
Team Offenses and Defenses
| Team | RS | eRS | wOBA | OBP | SLG | HitRns | EqBRR | RA | eRA | ERA | FIP* | xFIP | PitRns | Field | BABIP | |
| ARI | 587 | 579 | 0.321 | 0.329 | 0.422 | 587 | -8 | 680 | 645 | 4.96 | 4.66 | 4.54 | 651 | 5 | 0.311 | |
| ATL | 646 | 637 | 0.334 | 0.342 | 0.408 | 636 | 0 | 520 | 526 | 3.54 | 3.66 | 3.90 | 537 | 11 | 0.295 | |
| BAL | 498 | 534 | 0.311 | 0.313 | 0.387 | 538 | -4 | 687 | 692 | 4.80 | 4.45 | 4.74 | 648 | -44 | 0.312 | |
| BOS | 655 | 670 | 0.341 | 0.339 | 0.453 | 673 | -3 | 590 | 601 | 4.15 | 4.21 | 4.30 | 607 | 6 | 0.298 | |
| CHW | 617 | 599 | 0.326 | 0.334 | 0.431 | 602 | -3 | 543 | 569 | 3.98 | 3.69 | 4.12 | 551 | -18 | 0.307 | |
| CHC | 566 | 574 | 0.320 | 0.323 | 0.415 | 579 | -5 | 647 | 614 | 4.45 | 4.11 | 4.25 | 591 | -23 | 0.318 | |
| CIN | 645 | 648 | 0.336 | 0.339 | 0.438 | 647 | 1 | 553 | 581 | 4.08 | 4.14 | 4.42 | 609 | 29 | 0.294 | |
| CLE | 552 | 561 | 0.317 | 0.321 | 0.378 | 560 | 1 | 668 | 661 | 4.51 | 4.70 | 4.74 | 661 | 0 | 0.305 | |
| COL | 579 | 594 | 0.324 | 0.335 | 0.425 | 589 | 6 | 544 | 541 | 4.11 | 3.66 | 4.01 | 542 | 1 | 0.306 | |
| DET | 606 | 628 | 0.332 | 0.340 | 0.417 | 629 | -1 | 616 | 611 | 4.32 | 4.18 | 4.55 | 621 | 10 | 0.302 | |
| FLA | 616 | 603 | 0.326 | 0.323 | 0.407 | 594 | 9 | 585 | 583 | 3.98 | 3.81 | 4.17 | 559 | -24 | 0.309 | |
| HOU | 508 | 500 | 0.303 | 0.303 | 0.360 | 496 | 4 | 610 | 585 | 4.08 | 3.74 | 4.15 | 558 | -28 | 0.316 | |
| KCR | 534 | 547 | 0.314 | 0.329 | 0.394 | 555 | -8 | 690 | 706 | 5.06 | 4.90 | 4.63 | 669 | -38 | 0.317 | |
| LAD | 601 | 596 | 0.325 | 0.329 | 0.387 | 592 | 4 | 595 | 570 | 3.99 | 3.76 | 4.08 | 559 | -10 | 0.298 | |
| LAA | 590 | 559 | 0.316 | 0.316 | 0.398 | 572 | -13 | 624 | 636 | 4.34 | 4.28 | 4.45 | 613 | -23 | 0.307 | |
| MIL | 635 | 661 | 0.339 | 0.335 | 0.428 | 660 | 1 | 718 | 664 | 4.91 | 4.31 | 4.34 | 608 | -56 | 0.326 | |
| MIN | 648 | 644 | 0.335 | 0.345 | 0.427 | 647 | -3 | 545 | 549 | 3.85 | 3.90 | 4.11 | 573 | 24 | 0.304 | |
| NYY | 740 | 712 | 0.350 | 0.352 | 0.446 | 711 | 1 | 554 | 596 | 3.87 | 4.11 | 4.29 | 594 | -1 | 0.285 | |
| NYM | 550 | 567 | 0.318 | 0.313 | 0.378 | 554 | 14 | 549 | 585 | 3.73 | 3.95 | 4.26 | 587 | 2 | 0.309 | |
| OAK | 553 | 554 | 0.315 | 0.322 | 0.374 | 545 | 9 | 529 | 536 | 3.55 | 4.19 | 4.20 | 586 | 50 | 0.280 | |
| PHI | 605 | 587 | 0.323 | 0.325 | 0.406 | 587 | 0 | 529 | 561 | 3.76 | 4.03 | 3.96 | 574 | 14 | 0.298 | |
| PIT | 473 | 497 | 0.302 | 0.303 | 0.370 | 504 | -6 | 735 | 695 | 5.19 | 4.69 | 4.58 | 637 | -58 | 0.321 | |
| SDP | 636 | 601 | 0.326 | 0.322 | 0.378 | 599 | 2 | 518 | 512 | 3.37 | 3.98 | 3.81 | 553 | 41 | 0.288 | |
| SEA | 444 | 459 | 0.293 | 0.300 | 0.340 | 467 | -8 | 587 | 586 | 3.88 | 4.14 | 4.38 | 604 | 18 | 0.290 | |
| SFG | 595 | 586 | 0.323 | 0.325 | 0.404 | 585 | 0 | 528 | 574 | 3.66 | 3.94 | 4.30 | 594 | 21 | 0.298 | |
| STL | 616 | 611 | 0.328 | 0.333 | 0.409 | 614 | -3 | 527 | 549 | 3.50 | 4.09 | 4.05 | 571 | 22 | 0.297 | |
| TBR | 670 | 637 | 0.334 | 0.336 | 0.402 | 625 | 12 | 523 | 548 | 3.66 | 3.94 | 4.16 | 577 | 29 | 0.284 | |
| TEX | 636 | 628 | 0.332 | 0.337 | 0.421 | 622 | 6 | 552 | 591 | 3.89 | 4.25 | 4.36 | 612 | 21 | 0.290 | |
| TOR | 623 | 637 | 0.334 | 0.313 | 0.453 | 639 | -2 | 592 | 557 | 4.15 | 3.95 | 4.16 | 571 | 14 | 0.300 | |
| WSN | 550 | 559 | 0.316 | 0.322 | 0.399 | 563 | -4 | 630 | 593 | 4.26 | 4.12 | 4.35 | 597 | 4 | 0.310 |
RS = Actual Runs Scored RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: HitRns + EqBRR
wOBA = The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both HitRns and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
HitRns = Base Runs-estimated runs scored, ignoring all base running, using the equation in this post.
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: PitRns - Field
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP* = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates. HR/FB rates are park adjusted using these park factors.
xFIP = Expected Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs. Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average. xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
PitRns = Pitching Runs Allowed, the expected runs allowed based on the average of FIP and xFIP. Described in this post.
Field = Described in this post. It is essentially an average of team UZR, DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately), and BsRFld. BsRFld is just difference between FIP-based runs allowed and park-adjusted Base Runs, and is a less direct approach of measuring fielding. The fielding number also includes a catcher fielding statistic, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference. The catching methods are essentially those described here. But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater accuracy. If you want to know, feel free to ask!
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play. Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although park effects and chance events can have effects as well.
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How unusual is it
that when you sort this by wOBA, basically the entire NL West is clustered together?
"These are thin mints. I put them in the freezer. My favorites. So good."
--Reds outfielder Adam Dunn, on the girl scout cookies he keeps in his locker
The Padres have 581 Runs scored, not 636. Maybe that how you get a garbage that says the Padres are the best offense in the NL. That was like saying that Andres Torres is the best hitter in the NL.
Aside from the fact that Mike is being awfully rude...
He is right about the # of runs scored, per MLB.com
JayZ, what’s up with that? Am I misreading the chart?
Go Twins!
What's 'a garbage'?
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
by PWHjort on Sep 6, 2010 6:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 3 recs
That's a park adjusted runs scored total
Since my estimated runs scored is also park adjusted, I park adjust the actual runs scored to make for an apples to apples comparison.
PETCO is brutal on runs. 50 runs does seem like a lot, but that’s what the park factors say is an appropriate adjustment.
j-been peeling wallpaper and painting all weekend.
P.S. Sorry for being so late to respond
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
Ahhh, OK! Thank you!
Sorry, I probably just didn’t read carefully enough. Thank you.
And I hope the paint and wallpapering went well. Ugh. :P
Go Twins!
What park factors are you using?
I noticed that AT&T park actually ends up with less runs scored in your spreadsheet, suggesting a positive run environment, whereas these park factors show it being very similar to Petco.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
I'm guessing you're using the same ones at BBRef
And I would guess as well that ESPN’s are regarded as laughable.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
I'm using Patriot's
Described here:
http://gosu02.tripod.com/id103.html
And found here:
http://walksaber.blogspot.com/2009/10/end-of-season-statistics-2009.html
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
AL East is too damn tough………4 of the top 6 and the top 3 belonging to the same division.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Nowhere to go but up!
I'm pro-realignment
The more radical it is, more the more I tend to like it. :)
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
Let's not be hasty in using this as proof of anything
While I favor measures to level the playing field (mostly because the two top spenders by far are in the same division),and while JinAZ has been more than kind in addressing my numerous complaints, I think it’s important to recognize this as an information-based hypothesis about strength of teams across the league relative to each other.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
Sorry for the "miss" last week
Didn’t get it done all week, and then the Reds were on t.v. over the weekend.
There will be a power rankings this week.
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds





















