Cliff Lee: No longer invincible

by JoshuaR on Sep 4, 2010 4:40 PM EDT

I went to see Cliff Lee pitch in Baltimore on August 21. I expected to see a dominant performance from my favorite pitcher but was left disappointed as Lee gave up 8 runs, including 4 HRs. This led me to notice that since Lee was traded to Texas, he has been a very mortal pitcher.

But why is he struggling? What I find interesting is that he still seems to have his control but is giving up runs more frequently. His K/9 with Texas is 8.0 and his K/BB ratio is 12. He is throwing 71% strikes which is up a little from his career strike ratio of 66.6%. Obviously this is a smaller sample size so I expect him to regress to 66% or so soon, but it seems as though he still has control.

Is he just being unlucky? His BABIP is .325 compared to an average of .272. Also, his FIP is 3.19 with Texas while his ERA is 4.69 (xFIP of 3.25) .

So does anyone have any insight into why Lee is struggling? Is it anything more than just a string of bad luck? Thanks for all insight.

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My best guess, pitching in Texas compared to pitching in Safeco = more home runs.

HR/9 is up from .43 with Seattle to 1.12 with Texas. HR/FB% is up from 4% to 10.1%. Additionally, more men are scoring on those home runs perhaps as LOB% is down from 73.6% to a meager 59%.

According to pitchfx, Lee is pitching nearly the exact same in Texas as he was in Seattle (FB’s are up 5% in lieu of CH) but more balls are going out of the park, more people are scoring when they get on. His xFIP is nearly the same as it was in Seattle, but the HR’s are popping up his FIP a full run.

by Kenneth Arthur on Sep 9, 2010 1:25 PM EDT reply actions