Translating SP WAR to "#1/#2/ect"
This isn't exactly something easy to google so I figured I'd ask here :)
Hitter is generally easy. ~2 is an average player, ~4-5 is all star territory, ~7+ is MVP territory.
SP though have the whole "#1, #2, #3, #4, #5" deal. So, my question is, what's the WAR of a #1? What's the WAR of a #2?
From playing around with calculating WAR (From Fangraph's primer), here's roughly what I came up with for a NL SP this season (off of 180 IP, which would be 30 starts at 6 IP per start. I believe this is the equiv of 150 games played for position players, correct me if wrong, I tried to figure it out myself):
#5 = 4.60-5.10 ERA/FIP (0-1 WAR) (aka, bad bench player)
#4 = 4.60-4.10 ERA/FIP (1-2 WAR) (aka, good bench player)
#3 = 3.70-4.10 ERA/FIP (2-3 WAR) (aka, average starter)
#2 = 3.30-3.70 ERA/FIP (3-4 WAR) (aka, above average starter)
#1 = 2.50-3.30 ERA/FIP (4-6 WAR) (aka, all star)
Cy Young/ACE/whatever = Sub-2.50 ERA/FIP (6+ WAR) (MVP candidate)
That look about right?
My main reason for asking actually has to do with prospect grades. I like John Sickel's system, but using projected WAR to give grades. So for instance, for SP, it's roughly
#5 = C
#4 = C+
#3 = B-
#2 = B
#1 = B+
ACE = A
I guess the main that is it takes a 4.10 ERA to be the equiv of a average position player is just kinda hard to take. For grading system, maybe something closer to
5/C = -0.5 - 0.5
4/C+ = 0.5 - 1.5
3/B- = 1.5 - 3
2/B = 3 - 4.5
1/B+ = 4.5 - 6
ACE/A = 6+
?
That'd instead give
5/C = 4.85-5.30
4/C+ = 4.35-4.85
3/B- = 3.70-4.35
2/B = 3.10-3.70
1/B+ = 2.50-3.10
ACE/A = Sub-2.50
Does that look better?
Obviously this is really objective, but I figured this would be a nice place for open discussion regarding it.
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Interesting
By your WAR estimates, the Rockies will have two aces, a #2 (as a rookie), a #3 and a two #4s.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Sep 18, 2010 11:51 AM EDT reply actions
Phillies-Rangers
Rangers have two #1s and Lewis is close to a #1 (3.7 WAR currently)
Phillies have two #1s and Hamels is close (3.8)
That would make an interesting matchup.
When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.
One big factor is what you mean by "a #3". Different people mean different things.
If you divide the quality of starters’ innings pitched into five quintiles, the mean ERAs are eerily close to 3.50/4.00/4.50/5.00/5.50. That was pre-2010 run scoring levels.
If you give a pitcher at each of those five levels 180 IP, that’s like .5 WAR/1.5 WAR/2.5 WAR/3.5 WAR/4.5 WAR. Of course, the better the pitcher, the more IP they tend to get, for various reasons.
What I want is WAR to define "a #3", not define "a #3" and figure out what WAR fits
Although that spits out very similar WAR values to rotation spot. Though the ERA numbers are drastically different, but I assume that has to do with 1) I only used NL and 2) I was using 2010 run scoring level. ML RA/9 was 4.66 last year, NL RA/9 this year is

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