Carlos Gonzalez Is Doing Something Special
I've been spending the past couple days trying to find a reason to write about Colorado's Carlos Gonzalez. There was just something about his statistical line, which is loaded with shiny numbers, that kept me coming back to him.
Well, guess what? Thanks to Baseball Reference's Play Index, otherwise known as crack to anyone who loves baseball stats, I've found something that Gonzalez is on pace to do that's truly unique, and in my opinion, pretty awesome. And this makes me particularly excited, because now I don't feel like an idiot for staring at his 2010 line for an hour thinking, "There's just gotta be something special about this. I can sense it!"
But, alas, I figured it out: Gonzalez is racking up doubles, triples, homers and steals like nothing we've ever really seen before. He's quite legitimately on pace to put up numbers that haven't been matched in damn near 90 years. Heck, even if he got eaten by a bear today, he'd still finish with numbers in those respective categories that have only been matched 16 times in history by 13 different players - Willie Mays has matched/bested those numbers on four occasions.
I don't know about you, but there's always been a part of me that's been fascinated by guys that put up an impressive spread of doubles, triples, and homers on his way to a huge isolated power. You know, rather than merely hitting 50 homers and 25 doubles, a guy would hit 30 homers, 10 triples and 35 doubles, and he'd be awfully close to putting up similar power production to the guy who's killing him in the HR category. When you throw in base-stealing ability too, which is often present when you're talking about guys that can rack up 10+ triples, you're talking about some truly exciting, historically unique power-speed combinations. Plus, if you're kinda wacky like me, there's just something fun about the absence of single-digit numbers on a player's basic statistical line.
This is where Carlos Gonzalez comes in. He's proving to be an absolute master of this trade. On the season, he's got 29 home runs, 8 triples, 26 doubles and 20 steals. Pretty spiffy. And when compared to other players from this season, you can see that he's going to be in some pretty unique company. So after all that, I thought I'd put it up to the Player Index, using ZiPS' updated full-season projection. Basically, I wanted to know, "Within a single season, has everyone ever hit 34 homers, 10 triples and 32 doubles, while stealing 24 bases?"
And the results? It's happened once, and that was 88 years ago. In 1922, a 32-year-old Ken Williams batted .332/.413/.627 with 34 doubles, 11 triples, 39 homers and 37 steals. It's truly a sight to behold, Williams' 1922 line. Beyond all those extra-base hits and steals, he tossed in a league-leading 155 RBI, 128 runs scored, an unreal 74-31 walk-to-strikeout ratio, and he even got caught stealing on 20 occasions. The lowest figure in his entire basic statistical line from Baseball Reference is the 11 triples. Seriously, that stuff is bananas.
So while it's easy to point out the reasons why Gonzalez won't be able to maintain this kind of performance going forward, such as his .370 BABIP, huge home/road splits, and very weak walk-to-strikeout ratio, for now let's just marvel at what's proving to be a truly unique performance from the man who's doing a really damn good job of making Colorado forget Matt Holliday.
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How much of this is the Coors effect?
His .269/.289/.420 line away from Denver isn’t exactly impressive.
by Zach (maestro876) on Sep 1, 2010 2:09 PM EDT reply actions
What's startling is that BABIP has nothing to do with the differences in his home/road splits
Home: .379 BABIP, 7.7% walk rate, 16.3% strikeout rate, .395 isolated power
Away: .360 BABIP, 3.2% walk rate, 30.9% strikeout rate, .152 isolated power
But the weird thing is that the park factor for left-handed hitters in Coors is only 107. I’d love to read something about his splits from somebody who’s smarter than me, that’s for sure.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 1, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
That is ridiculous.
Giambi is also interesting:
Home: .367 BABIP, 19.5% walk rate, 16.1% strikeout rate, .197 isolated power
Away: .267 BABIP, 14.0% walk rate, 31.0% strikeout rate, .080 isolated power
He’s the only other Rockies hitter this year with such massive home/away splits, as far as I can tell.
As far as what’s causing it, elcroata wrote a fantastic piece on the Coors Effect and Carlos Gonzalez on AN. It’s worth a read.
Miguel Olivo has some extreme splits:
Home: .462 BABIP, 4.9% BB rate, 29.7 K rate, .250 ISO
Away: .262 BABIP, 8.8% BB rate, 30.1% K rate, .111 ISO
But it seems like the whole offense crawls under a rock during road trips. I think the conclusions in elcroata’s piece were pretty good.
Ask and you shall receive.
Seriously, this is some awesome stuff.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Sosa had me caught up in the magic, and I feel like an idiot. I don’t say that often, but I feel like an idiot because of Sammy Sosa." -Jay Mariotti
Oops, Hillstop already posted that.
A's Fan in Sweden
"Sosa had me caught up in the magic, and I feel like an idiot. I don’t say that often, but I feel like an idiot because of Sammy Sosa." -Jay Mariotti
Hopefully CarGo realizes this is where his work to get better at hitting starts, not where it ends.
If he relies on the tools he has, he’s going to be a sad boy. He needs to work on being a better all-around hitter. But good for him, unique seasons are still something fun to watch.
The good news for Cargo is that he did something atypical in August:
He posted a BB/K ratio of 0.53. That might not seem like much, but it’s twice his rate for the season as a whole, and came from an increase in walks and decrease in strikeouts. Whether he can keep it up remains to be seen, but I’ve noticed him being more selective. Also, I wish we had some hit f/x data, because I suspect his average batted ball velocity is near the top. That could be part of his high BABIP all season long.
Ken Williams in 1922
He achieved these milestones apparently with a lot of help from his home ballpark. Home: 32 HR, 8 3B.
Road: 7 HR, 3 3B.
Well said...
It’s easy to look at a great line & pick apart things like luck, low walk rates, & splits. I like how you compared his production to some historical lines.
I absolutely loved 2007, between Rollins and Curtis Granderson.
You got Rollins going 38 2B, 20 3B, 30 HR, 41 SB, and then you got Granderson going 38 2B, 23 3B, 23 HR, 26-for-27 SB. Crazy stuff.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 5, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

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