Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Jeremy Lin And How The Pac-12 Missed Him

Star Shortstops, Where Art Thou?

Before I start, let's just look at how the WAR leaderboards stack out right now:

C : 10 players at 2+ WAR, 4 players at 3+ WAR

1B: 14 players at 2+ WAR, 9 players at 3+ WAR, 6 players at 4+ WAR, 2 players at 5+ WAR

2B: 10 players at 2+ WAR, 8 players at 3+ WAR, 2 players at 4+ WAR, 1 player at 5+ WAR

3B: 12 players at 2+ WAR, 7 players at 3+ WAR, 4 players at 4+ WAR, 1 player at 5+ WAR

SS: 9 players at 2+ WAR, 1 player at 3+ WAR, 1 player at 4+ WAR

LF: 10 players at 2+ WAR, 6 players at 3+ WAR, 5 players at 4+ WAR, 2 players at 5+ WAR

CF: 10 players at 2+ WAR, 3 players at 3+ WAR, 2 players at 4+ WAR

RF: 15 players at 2+ WAR, 7 players at 3+ WAR

If you ask me, that's a startling lack of top-level performance from the game's shorstops.

Rafael Furcal is currently by far the best shortstop in baseball in terms of WAR, as his 4.0 mark absolutely dwarfs the second-place 2.7 WAR marks posted by Alexei Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki. Furcal is currently on pace for 6.1 WAR, while Ramirez and Tulowitzki are on pace for 4.1 WAR. That means the three best shortstops in baseball are on pace to put up 14.3 WAR total this year.

Let's do another quick comparison here of the combined WAR accumulated by the top-3 shortstops in MLB each year, I say:

2010: 14.3 WAR (current pace)

2009: 29.4 WAR (Jeter, H. Ramirez, Tulowitzki)

2008: 18.8 WAR (H. Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins)

2007: 17.4 WAR (Rollins, H. Ramirez, Reyes)

2006: 17.7 WAR (Jeter, Guillen, Reyes)

2005: 14.5 WAR (Tejada, Furcal, F. Lopez)

2004: 16.8 WAR (Tejada, Guillen, Jeter)

2003: 21.1 WAR (A-Rod, Renteria, Garciaparra)

2002: 20.1 WAR (A-Rod, Jeter, Hernandez)

We're looking at easily the biggest down year for top-level shortstop performance since 2005. Although it's worth noting that eight different shortstops put up 3.9+ WAR in 2005, while only four are on pace to do that in 2010. 

Obviously this was some pretty quick-and-dirty research, but I simply found the lack of star-level play from this year's shortstops to be both surprising, and as someone who loves a good shortstop, disappointing. I think there are a few things that can explain the drop, which come nicely after the hip-hop.

Star-divide

  • Two of guys who have been playing really, really well at shortstop this year, Furcal and Tulowitzki, have missed significant time this season due to injuries. They're still in the top-3 in WAR among shortstops despite this.
  • Multiple other guys who have been near or at the top in the past, primarily Reyes and Rollins, have also missed time this season due to injuries. And it wouldn't shock me if those lingering injuries could be affecting their performance somewhat, too.  
  • Derek Jeter is showing some of his age. He's already 36, and it doesn't look like he has enough in the tank to toss out a 7+ win season again like he did last year. His numbers look an awful lot like they did in 2008, except with a slightly lower BABIP. Then again, people were saying similar things about Captain Jetes after that season, too.
  • The one shortstop who has essentially been a lock for elite-level performance the past few years, Hanley Ramirez, is finally having a down-year offensively. His line still puts him among the best offensive shortstops in baseball, but with a -8 UZR factored in he's on pace for by far his worst performance since his rookie season. 
  • Luck. These things happen. Maybe next year Ramirez and Tulowitzki will battle for the NL MVP while Derek Jeter has a resurgent age-37 season and Starlin Castro emerges as the next great shortstop. Maybe the entire lot is rather disappointing again like this season. I wouldn't bet on it though; a lot of really good shortstops haven't played up to their potential this year, while only Furcal and Alex Gonzalez are clearly playing over their heads. Plus, I really, really like Starlin Castro.

Comment 7 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Elvis Andrus put up a 3.1 WAR last year

and currently sits at 1.5 this year. His defense, based on the eye test, appears to be on par with 2009. But his UZR has declined considerably.

Is it possible that defense at the position has improved thus deflating player’s UZR which in turn lowers thier WAR?

by RangerMad on Aug 3, 2010 3:44 PM EDT reply actions  

Theoretically, yes that's possible, I believe.

But with that said, I have a hard time believing that it would account for his UZR/150 dropping 13.5 last year to 2.2 this year.

I have to imagine that at this point it’s maybe partially because of what you said, and also because the distribution of batted balls hasn’t been as generous to him this year. He’s probably not a +13 to +15 defender, but he’s better than +2 or +3.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Aug 3, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

# chances effects UZR?

Ranger pitchers are striking out more this season and also getting fewer ground outs.

by RangerMad on Aug 3, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wonder if

the strength at second base has anything to do with it. It seems that there is a large number of very offensively productive 2B right now and since a number of them were moved off short, I wonder if that has something to do with it (Pedroia comes to mind as an example).

Though, that assumes that the numbers above for 2B WAR are better than normal- are they? I don’t know but it seems like there is a dearth of SS talent and an upswing in 2B talent right now, at least on casual glance.

- Matt Sullivan
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while. - Nuke LaLoosh

by Mattsullivan on Aug 3, 2010 5:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Well regarding Reyes,

And I know this is sort of arbitrary, but since he missed all of spring training and part of the season with his thyroid condition, if you take away his first 32 games of the season (April 10 – May 14) and make that his “spring training,” he has a .315/.349/.480 line in the 59 games since then. His walk rate his down from where it was in his peak 06-08 years, but really everything else is where it should be. I think he’ll end up being a 5 win player again next year should he stay healthy.

by Evan_S on Aug 3, 2010 8:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
Prince Fielder in Comerica Park
Crystal_ball_small
Sparky vs Buck
Img_3830_small
BtBS Fantasy League
Small
Context Neutral Run and RBI projections
Small
Free Agent Compensation
Img_0001_small
Value of Various Plate Approaches
Strike_three2_small
Effect of Foul Area on Strikeouts: AL 1954-68: Erratum
Small
Baseball on a stick
Small
Player Evaluating Statistic
Baseball_small
Rays Outfield: Cheap but Extremely Productive

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Follow us on Facebook!

Follow us on Twitter!

SaberGraphics

MLB Daily Dish

Get the latest MLB Trade Rumors, Transactions, and News at MLB Daily Dish!


Managing Editor:

Jbopp-kc_small Justin Bopp

Columnists:

Adam_small adarowski

Dme_small Satchel Price

Closeup4_small J-Doug

Carlosicon_small Julian Levine

Billy_and_daddy_4th_of_july_small Bill Petti

Featuring:

Dayton_small Jeff Zimmerman

12475953_small Jacob Peterson

Picture-6_small Chris St. John

Btbpro_small Dave Gershman

229331_10150183361996591_674441590_6760167_6637860_n3_small Lewie Pollis

Img_3830_small David Fung