Star Shortstops, Where Art Thou?
Before I start, let's just look at how the WAR leaderboards stack out right now:
C : 10 players at 2+ WAR, 4 players at 3+ WAR
1B: 14 players at 2+ WAR, 9 players at 3+ WAR, 6 players at 4+ WAR, 2 players at 5+ WAR
2B: 10 players at 2+ WAR, 8 players at 3+ WAR, 2 players at 4+ WAR, 1 player at 5+ WAR
3B: 12 players at 2+ WAR, 7 players at 3+ WAR, 4 players at 4+ WAR, 1 player at 5+ WAR
SS: 9 players at 2+ WAR, 1 player at 3+ WAR, 1 player at 4+ WAR
LF: 10 players at 2+ WAR, 6 players at 3+ WAR, 5 players at 4+ WAR, 2 players at 5+ WAR
CF: 10 players at 2+ WAR, 3 players at 3+ WAR, 2 players at 4+ WAR
RF: 15 players at 2+ WAR, 7 players at 3+ WAR
If you ask me, that's a startling lack of top-level performance from the game's shorstops.
Rafael Furcal is currently by far the best shortstop in baseball in terms of WAR, as his 4.0 mark absolutely dwarfs the second-place 2.7 WAR marks posted by Alexei Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki. Furcal is currently on pace for 6.1 WAR, while Ramirez and Tulowitzki are on pace for 4.1 WAR. That means the three best shortstops in baseball are on pace to put up 14.3 WAR total this year.
Let's do another quick comparison here of the combined WAR accumulated by the top-3 shortstops in MLB each year, I say:
2010: 14.3 WAR (current pace)
2009: 29.4 WAR (Jeter, H. Ramirez, Tulowitzki)
2008: 18.8 WAR (H. Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins)
2007: 17.4 WAR (Rollins, H. Ramirez, Reyes)
2006: 17.7 WAR (Jeter, Guillen, Reyes)
2005: 14.5 WAR (Tejada, Furcal, F. Lopez)
2004: 16.8 WAR (Tejada, Guillen, Jeter)
2003: 21.1 WAR (A-Rod, Renteria, Garciaparra)
2002: 20.1 WAR (A-Rod, Jeter, Hernandez)
We're looking at easily the biggest down year for top-level shortstop performance since 2005. Although it's worth noting that eight different shortstops put up 3.9+ WAR in 2005, while only four are on pace to do that in 2010.
Obviously this was some pretty quick-and-dirty research, but I simply found the lack of star-level play from this year's shortstops to be both surprising, and as someone who loves a good shortstop, disappointing. I think there are a few things that can explain the drop, which come nicely after the hip-hop.
- Two of guys who have been playing really, really well at shortstop this year, Furcal and Tulowitzki, have missed significant time this season due to injuries. They're still in the top-3 in WAR among shortstops despite this.
- Multiple other guys who have been near or at the top in the past, primarily Reyes and Rollins, have also missed time this season due to injuries. And it wouldn't shock me if those lingering injuries could be affecting their performance somewhat, too.
- Derek Jeter is showing some of his age. He's already 36, and it doesn't look like he has enough in the tank to toss out a 7+ win season again like he did last year. His numbers look an awful lot like they did in 2008, except with a slightly lower BABIP. Then again, people were saying similar things about Captain Jetes after that season, too.
- The one shortstop who has essentially been a lock for elite-level performance the past few years, Hanley Ramirez, is finally having a down-year offensively. His line still puts him among the best offensive shortstops in baseball, but with a -8 UZR factored in he's on pace for by far his worst performance since his rookie season.
- Luck. These things happen. Maybe next year Ramirez and Tulowitzki will battle for the NL MVP while Derek Jeter has a resurgent age-37 season and Starlin Castro emerges as the next great shortstop. Maybe the entire lot is rather disappointing again like this season. I wouldn't bet on it though; a lot of really good shortstops haven't played up to their potential this year, while only Furcal and Alex Gonzalez are clearly playing over their heads. Plus, I really, really like Starlin Castro.
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Elvis Andrus put up a 3.1 WAR last year
and currently sits at 1.5 this year. His defense, based on the eye test, appears to be on par with 2009. But his UZR has declined considerably.
Is it possible that defense at the position has improved thus deflating player’s UZR which in turn lowers thier WAR?
Theoretically, yes that's possible, I believe.
But with that said, I have a hard time believing that it would account for his UZR/150 dropping 13.5 last year to 2.2 this year.
I have to imagine that at this point it’s maybe partially because of what you said, and also because the distribution of batted balls hasn’t been as generous to him this year. He’s probably not a +13 to +15 defender, but he’s better than +2 or +3.
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I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Aug 3, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
# chances effects UZR?
Ranger pitchers are striking out more this season and also getting fewer ground outs.
# of chances will affect UZR
as raw UZR is a counting stat. It will also could affect the uncertainty around UZR/150, but not UZR/150 itself.
by stevesommer05 on Aug 3, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder if
the strength at second base has anything to do with it. It seems that there is a large number of very offensively productive 2B right now and since a number of them were moved off short, I wonder if that has something to do with it (Pedroia comes to mind as an example).
Though, that assumes that the numbers above for 2B WAR are better than normal- are they? I don’t know but it seems like there is a dearth of SS talent and an upswing in 2B talent right now, at least on casual glance.
- Matt Sullivan
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while. - Nuke LaLoosh
Well regarding Reyes,
And I know this is sort of arbitrary, but since he missed all of spring training and part of the season with his thyroid condition, if you take away his first 32 games of the season (April 10 – May 14) and make that his “spring training,” he has a .315/.349/.480 line in the 59 games since then. His walk rate his down from where it was in his peak 06-08 years, but really everything else is where it should be. I think he’ll end up being a 5 win player again next year should he stay healthy.

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