Kelly Johnson Cleared Waivers; I Think That's Weird
by Satchel Price on Aug 27, 2010 11:03 AM EDT
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PrintI certainly don't have any compelling news or anything here. But this morning, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reported that Arizona second baseman Kelly Johnson cleared waivers.
And frankly, I think that's odd. We're talking about a second baseman that's on pace to put up a roughly 5-win season, and nobody would even put in a claim on this guy?
He's making $2.35M this year! Even with a raise through arbitration, he'd almost seem to be a lock to be a bargain in 2011 given his strong track record outside of 2009. It's not like this is some weird, unpredicted breakout; Johnson put up respective WAR marks of 3.4 and 2.5 in 2007 and 2008, and he's done little this season to make one think that his true talent level is anywhere near how he played in 2009.
I'm sure that the Diamondbacks would expect some talent in return for Johnson, which makes perfect sense given how good he's been and how little he's been paid. But why wouldn't somebody want to claim this guy? I mean, Cody Ross gets claimed but Kelly Johnson doesn't?
Unless I'm missing something here, which I suppose could be a possibility, I really don't understand how Kelly Johnson cleared waivers.
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This is so bizarre that I actually think it's more likely that the report is wrong than that it's correct
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Product of the "BOB"
Kelly Johnson was not claimed, and probably will not be moved this season, because of his extreme home/road splits. His performance this year, while stunning, is a result of his environment, not just his ability.
At this point in the season, we should be able to make inferences using rate statistics; there should be enough observations for the law of large numbers to hold true. To begin with, Kelly’s OPS is .985 at home, .717 on the road. Sure, he’s slugging much higher at home than on the road (.581 vs .389), but his batting average is higher at home, too (.309 vs .245). This probably due to his BABIP splits: Kelly’s BABIP is higher at home than on the road (~.350 vs~ .306, respectively). I’m not going to discount his ability by saying he’s been lucky, but he’s gotten his fair share of good bounces around the old “Bank One Ballpark” this year.
If you’re a GM of another team, you probably see those splits and think “this guy can’t help us”. So Kelly will finish the season where he started. If he’s smart, he’ll try to re-sign with the Diamondbacks.
Consider his stats from last year (20 ABs at Chase Field, 283 ABs at all other parks):
OPS at Chase Field (1.000) vs all other parks (.587).
SLG at Chase Field (.650) vs all other parks (.371).
BA at Chase Field (.350) vs all other parks (.213).
BABIP at Chase Field (~.500) vs all other parks (.233).
Pretty similar, no? Granted, there are not enough observations for this comparison to be credible, but given this in combination with the current season, it stands to reason that Kelly is benefitting from playing in Chase Field 81 games this year.
Talk about a home field advantage.
by mark.d.mccluskey on Aug 28, 2010 1:31 AM EDT reply actions
All kinds of "no"
People said the same things about Matt Holliday 14 months ago and he’s still a great hitter. Removing him from Coors Field didn’t change that. Johnson was an above average hitter with the Braves and he’d be an above average hitter for anyone else. He’s not a great defender at the keystone and that reduces his value somewhat but he can hit and someone should’ve put in a claim on him.
I'm surprised the Red Sox haven't claimed him
With Pedroia likely out for the year, he could help them quite a bit, even if he isn’t quite as good as his stats look. They could either Non-tender him or offer arbitration and try to deal him in the off-season. I guess they must believe in Lowrie quite a bit.
- Matt Sullivan
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while. - Nuke LaLoosh
Perhaps it would have to do with asking price, no?
IIRC, it is common practice to place players on waivers to get a sense of what teams will trade for them. I’d imagine that anyone who thought the D-backs would actually trade Johnson called their front office and found the price to be too high.
It’s taken years of practice to be such an asshole.
by Chiburb on Jun 1, 2010 10:35 AM PDT
But what's the risk in claiming him?
I just think it’s odd that some team wouldn’t even stick a claim in there. I mean, what if there’s a change of heart in the Arizona front office and they decide to lower their asking price? Wouldn’t some team wish that they had claimed him then rather than have him available to all 30 teams? And it’s not like there’s any risk involved: they either get Johnson on the cheap and under contract for 2011 as well, which would be great, or he gets pulled back and we’re back at step one.
I just find it to be curious that somebody who’s clearly a bargain would get through waivers.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Aug 31, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
The Cardinals definitely should've claimed him
Instead they continue to run out their Skippy-Flippy-AaronMiles hybrid hoping against hope that one of them turns into a halfway valuable asset when they should’ve signed Johnson in the offseason. I tend to think that teams decided not to claim him b/c the D-backs were going to ask too much in return but someone should’ve taken a chance that the D-backs would just dump him in order to avoid going to arbitration with him this winter.
Even if...
… Johnson’s .717 road OPS were all he’d do going forward, he’d still be a pretty huge upgrade for the Cards. Replacing Schumaker with Johnson nets 40-50 points of OPS and 10-15 runs saved on defense. Johnson’s “crappy” 2009 was a damn site better than Schumaker’s 2010.
What the hell was Mo thinking?
Seems to me the Diamondbacks are a good bullpen away from maybe competing next year.
They should definitely hold on to him in my opinion, but yes it is quite odd that nobody put a claim on him. No matter how you quantify what he has done this season, he’s one of the best bargains in baseball.
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