Jack Morris, Dave Stieb and Most Wins/WAR of the 1980s

by adarowski on Aug 27, 2010 10:01 AM EDT

We've all had "the talk" with one of our friends.

You know, the one where we tell them Jack Morris wasn't as good as they thought he was.

Look, Jack Morris was a good pitcher. You know what? I wouldn't even care if he was inducted into the Hall of Fame. But there are a lot of pitchers I'd rather see inducted before him.

One of the popular "gotchas" in the case for Jack Morris in the Hall is "but dude, he had the most wins in the 1980s"—to which, we reply with something like "but wins are a team statistic and don't adquately reflect the effectiveness of the blah blah blah blah" and then that friend makes a crack about the last time we had a physical relationship with a member of the opposite sex.

Now that we're armed with not just wins, but wins above replacement, where does ol' Jack stand now? The answer is—not first. It's twelfth.

Most Wins Above Replacement of the 1980s (Pitchers)
Rk	Player	WAR	From	To	Age	W	L	IP	WAR/200
1	Dave Stieb	45.2	1980	1989	22-31	140	109	2328.2	3.88
2	Bob Welch	35.1	1980	1989	23-32	137	93	2082.1	3.37
3	Fernando Valenzuela	34.8	1980	1989	19-28	128	103	2144.2	3.25
4	Bert Blyleven	34.0	1980	1989	29-38	123	103	2078.1	3.27
5	Orel Hershiser	32.8	1983	1989	24-30	98	64	1457.0	4.50
6	Roger Clemens	32.3	1984	1989	21-26	95	45	1284.2	5.03
7	Nolan Ryan	30.8	1980	1989	33-42	122	104	2094.0	2.94
8	Dwight Gooden	30.2	1984	1989	19-24	100	39	1291.0	4.68
9	John Tudor	29.7	1980	1989	26-35	104	66	1622.2	3.66
10	Bret Saberhagen	29.0	1984	1989	20-25	92	61	1329.0	4.36
11	Charlie Hough	28.7	1980	1989	32-41	128	114	2121.2	2.71
12	Jack Morris	27.9	1980	1989	25-34	162	119	2443.2	2.28
13	Mario Soto	27.3	1980	1988	23-31	94	84	1614.1	3.38
14	Teddy Higuera	27.3	1985	1989	26-30	78	44	1085.0	5.03
15	Rick Sutcliffe	26.7	1980	1989	24-33	116	93	1860.0	2.87
16	Rick Reuschel	25.7	1980	1989	31-40	97	82	1616.1	3.18
17	Steve Carlton	25.6	1980	1988	35-43	104	84	1732.1	2.96
18	Ron Guidry	25.5	1980	1988	29-37	111	72	1639.2	3.11
19	Frank Viola	25.1	1982	1989	22-29	117	98	1858.0	2.70
20	Dan Quisenberry	24.6	1980	1989	27-36	53	43	996.2	4.94
21	Mark Gubicza	24.6	1984	1989	21-26	84	67	1313.1	3.75

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/20/2010.

The data comes from Baseball-Reference, but I added the WAR/200 innings column so that we can normalize some of the guys who only played part of the decade. The best WAR/200s on the list:

Rk	Player	WAR	WAR/200
1	Teddy Higuera	27.3	5.03
2	Roger Clemens	32.3	5.03
3	Dan Quisenberry	24.6	4.94
4	Dwight Gooden	30.2	4.68
5	Orel Hershiser	32.8	4.50
6	Bret Saberhagen	29.0	4.36
7	Dave Stieb	45.2	3.88

Why the random cutoff at #7? Because I wanted to get Dave Stieb on the list, of course!

Yes, Teddy Higuera is percentage points ahead of Rocket. I always like the big guy, but only now do I realize how awesome he was. Higuera debuted at age 26, meaning he was already in his prime and had no ramp-up. He then obliterated the competition until he got hurt, and then he was quickly done. Therefore, no dropoff at the end of his career. Hence the awesome WAR rate. Quiz is the only reliever on the first list and shoots up to #3. Gooden, Hershiser, and Saberhagen all looked like like Hall of Famers at some point in their careers. Dave Stieb is like the Tim Raines of pitchers. He was really freakin' good but nobody realized it. Blame Canada, again.

And the worst WAR/200 on the list:

Rk	Player	WAR	WAR/200
1	Jack Morris	27.9	2.28
2	Frank Viola	25.1	2.70
3	Charlie Hough	28.7	2.71
4	Rick Sutcliffe	26.7	2.87
5	Nolan Ryan	30.8	2.94
6	Steve Carlton	25.6	2.96
7	Ron Guidry	25.5	3.11

Again, these are the worst of the best of the 1980s, so everyone one of these pitchers is pretty darn good. The gap between Morris and #2 is quite large, though.

Well, maybe Morris is the best among pitchers who played the entire decade then? Not so much.

Best by total WAR:

Stieb (45.2)
Welch (35.1)
Valenzuela (34.8)
Blyleven (34.0)
Ryan (30.8)
Tudor (29.7)
Hough (28.7)
Morris (27.9)

Nope. Among all the pitchers who pitched in the entire decade, Stieb is also tops among starters in WAR/200 (though Quisenberry's is higher than his). It's pretty clear to me that the pitcher who should get the credit for being the best of the 1980s is not Jack Morris, but instead Dave Stieb.

If you're curious, Dave Stieb was second in wins (140) to Morris (162).

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Comments

the thing that bugs me about the Morris “winningest pitcher of the 1980s” thing — aside from the fact that Stieb was just so, so much better — is that even if you DO care about “wins” for some reason, there’s no particular reason to care about the number of “wins” accumulated from a year ending in 0 to a year ending in 9.

So Morris had those 162 wins in the ten years from 1980 to 1989. Frank Viola had 163 in the ten years from 1984 to 1993, and Ron Guidry had 163 from 1977 to 1986. So if you think Morris belongs in the Hall of Fame (and assuming you agree with the rest of the world that those other two guys don’t), you’re not only giving Morris credit for getting to play with Trammell and Whitaker and Lemon and Evans, you’re also giving him credit for happening to do most of his best work in years with the same number in the tens place.

http://www.theplatoonadvantage.com

by billp on Aug 27, 2010 10:15 AM EDT reply actions

i hate how people (who do not have considerable knowledge in baseball) ignore great players that come from the Blue Jays

For Example: OMG WHO IS THIS HALLADAY GUY. HE’S SO FREAKIN GOOD BUT I’VE NEVER HEARD OF HIM BEFORE
that’s a bit exagerated, but it seems to happen a lot

To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!

by YunelTheLazyLatino on Aug 28, 2010 7:00 PM EDT reply actions