Top 10 players to start a franchise with revised.
by Yankee_Country on Aug 27, 2010 12:27 AM EDT
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I made a post May 5th on here about this topic. Its based on position, age, and salary. I’m going to go back and revise a new list afterwards just based on what we’ve seen in the 2010 season. For example in my list below I have Matt Kemp. Kemp hasn’t lived up to any hype I had about him. In fact hes been only worth 0.6, but lets get into that later. Here is the old post.
“10. Tommy Hanson – Atlanta Braves
Position : Pitcher
Age : 23
2010 Salary : 435k
Hanson is a great young talented pitcher. The Braves will have one of the better rotations in the future because of Hanson and Jair. He had a great rookie year posting a 2.89 ERA and a 3.50 FIP. He was a bit lucky. He even had a 80.3 LOB%. Hanson had a 1.18 WHIP. In 127 innings pitched he has a 2.6 WAR. Hes the real deal people.
9. Matt Wieters – Baltimore Orioles
Position : Catcher
Age : 23
2010 Salary : 400k
Before taking a major league at bat Wieters was described as Joe Mauer with power. I could see him making some noise in the next few years. The Orioles filled a vital position with him and he should be signed to a new deal this off-season. Wieters first season in the show would be a success in my eyes. He had a .340 OBP, .404 SLG, and a .324 wOBA. Not bad for a rookie. He also had a 1.3 WAR in 96 games. A young power hitter like Wieters will strikeout a lot, but he is the catcher of the future. Mauer and Wieters can possibly be battling for the best catcher title in the future.
8. Zack Greinke – Kansas City Royals
Position : Pitcher
Age : 26
2010 Salary : 7.5 million
Greinke came out of no where in 2009 to win the AL Cy Young award. KC has him for two more years after 2010. His 9.4 WAR led pitchers. You have to be simply amazing to win 16 games with the Royals run support. He wasn’t great until 2009, but many people expect big things from him. Including myself. In 09′ he had a 2.16 ERA and a 2.33 FIP. His LOB% was 79.3%. That is just crazy good. To have anything near 80% is great. His WHIP was 1.07. Greinke also ate innings up. Almost 230 total innings pitched in those he had 242 strikeouts. He could be a key piece to a contender in a two years.
7. Matt Kemp – Los Angeles Dodgers
Position : CF
Age : 25
2010 Salary : 4 million
The future of the Dodgers is Matthew Kemp. Like Lincecum, Kemp avoided arbitration by signing a two-year deal. Not too bad for the Dodgers either 2010 4 million and 2011 6.95 million. Kemp is known for his hitting, but I hope he will become a better fielder. In 2009 he had a 2.9 UZR, but in 2010 he already has a -11.3. I’m positive its just him taking terrible routes to the ball. For Kemp’s sake he hopes he can change that so hes not the next Ryan Braun.
.347/.485/.360
Plus his 5.0 WAR last year don’t look too shabby either.
6. Troy Tulowitzki - Colorado Rockies
Position : SS
Age : 25
2010 Salary : 3.5 million
Another young star locked up for a long time with a solid deal for the organization. Hes with the Rockies until 2014. Tulo’s contract don’t hit over 5.5 million until 2012. Colorado has a gem here in Tulowitzki. He plays shortstop good, and hits like a mad man. I’d consider him the second or third best shortstop in the league behind Hanley. A career .355/.471/.354 OBP/SLG/wOBA. He got to learn to not strikeout so much, but as one of those rare power hitting shortstops I guess the 19.7 K% comes with it. Tulo’s career UZR is 10.4. His value is high with a 5.5 WAR a season ago. Tulo is a favorite of mine and wouldn’t mind having a great hitter and good fielder in return for this amount of dough. 5. Tim Lincecum - San Francisco Giants Lincecum is on pace to become one of the greatest pitchers the game has ever seen barring injury. He already has two Cy Young awards under his belt in four seasons as a starter. The Freak avoided arbitration by signing a two year deal for 8 million in 2010 and 13 million in 2011. Thats a ton of weed! Joking a side his stats are unbelievable. His ERA is 2.82 and his FIP is 2.71. Meaning his ERA is right around where he is supposed to be. His 75.5 LOB% is slightly above average. Lincecum also knows how to eat innings and strike people out. In 641 innings over four seasons he struck out 732 batters. Here are some other stats to check out. WHIP – 1.13 His WAR last season was 8.2 tied for the second most among pitchers. I’d love to have this guy in my staff for years to come.
Position : RF The Diamondbacks are getting a real steal here. They aren’t paying him a whole lot until I’d say 2013 where hes getting 9.75 million. He is locked in from 2010-2015. I see a great career ahead of Upton. His stat line goes… .348/.478/.355 And you can only see this 22 year old right fielder can only get better. His WAR last season was 4. Upton is also a great defense. His UZR was 8.5 and his UZR/150 was 9.0. He figured something out last year because there was a dramatic increase in his defensive numbers from 08-09. In a small sample size this year it seems he will be even better this year. A good young all-round player, and cheap too! 3. Joe Mauer – Minnesota Twins Position : Catcher Mauer is pretty expensive and after this season he’ll be getting 23 million annually until 2018. But Mauer will be much worth it. He is the best catcher in the game. Probably the second most valuable position in the MLB. His hitting numbers are crazy. Mauer’s career numbers look like this. .408/.484/.384
These are crazy numbers since his rookie season in 2004. His career WAR is 28.7 but I believe we haven’t even seen Mauer’s peak. His MVP season is just the beginning of great seasons to come. If you were starting a franchise I couldn’t say you were wrong spending a ton of money on this guy. He had 8 WAR season just by hitting because catchers do not have a defensive metric. Indicating it would be even higher. Mauer also does not strike out a lot by seeing his 11.4 K%. Get ready to pay some incentives because this guy will be winning a few MVP’s in the next 10 years. 2. Hanley Ramirez – Florida Marlins Position : SS Hanley is pretty costly, but is an amazing talent at one of the more valuable positions in the MLB. I’d say shortstop is the #1 most valuable position in baseball. He is going to be a Marlin until 2014 unless trade. Ramirez finished 7th in WAR last season with a 7.1 WAR. Hanley can straight up rake though. In his 5 years in the majors he posted a .387/.530/.397 (OBP/SLG/wOBA) Like Longoria, Ramirez strikes out a bit, but not as much. He has a career 18.2 K%. So far through this season (small sample size) he has a 12.6%. So it might seem he will strike out less this year. His career BB% is 9.6. It should get higher, but he hits so well his OBP could be .400+ again this year. Hanley isn’t the greatest field either. He only had 1 season (not including his two games in 2005) where he had a positive UZR. Ramirez is such a great hitter though he don’t need his glove too produce.
1. Evan Longoria – Tampa Bay Rays Position : 3B Longoria is the best option when it comes down to age, position and salary. He is only 24 years old and is the second best third basemen in the major leagues. Could be argued as the first best. The Rays are getting a really great deal with Longoria. He isn’t reaching the million dollar mark until next season, and is in his 2nd season of his 6 year deal. He was also had a top 10 WAR for batters last year with a 7.2 WAR. Longo is a very productive player here is his OBP/SLG/wOBA in his very short career. .359/.536/.381. It shows he gets on base. His BB% is 10%. Like other young power hitters his K% is in the mid 20′s. According to UZR (18.1) and UZR/150 (18.5) he is the best fielding third basemen in the MLB. In conclusion Evan can do it all. I expect his K% to go down as he becomes more experienced.” Now I won’t base this entirely off this season because then Hanley Ramirez would be taken off. A few guys I would like to take off follow. Matt Kemp and Matt Wieters because of their poor play. They still have a chance, but I think they need to play a little bit better. Not sure about Justin Upton either, but since hes cheap I'll give him the benefit of doubt. I also would like to take a few really expensive guys off this list. Those people being Joe Mauer, Tim Lincecum, and Zack Greinke. This leaves me with five spots to fill on my list. After selecting the players I’ll place them in order.
Stephen Strasburg – Washington Nationals Position : P Age : 22 Salary : 10 – 2million 11 – 2.5 million I wish I had some proof to back this up in May because I surely would not have missed Stephen Strasburg if I knew what he would do in his first season. Even with only pitching in 12 games. His WAR has been 2.6 and has a 2.91 ERA. His FIP shows it should be lower than that because his FIP is 2.10. If you saw his minor league appearances you would not have thought of Stras to strikeout 14 in his major league debut, and have 30+ in his first three starts. Well hes done that and some. His K/9 is 12.18 and he has 92 strikeouts over 68.0 innings pitched. Sad to say he is going on the DL again, but if he keeps it up and he stays healthy you can see one of baseball’s best pitchers in history. And an early Cy Young award. Buster Posey – San Francisco Giants Position : Catcher Age : 23 Salary : N/A Off to a way hotter start in his major league career than Matt Wieters last year’s star rookie prospect, Posey looks to carry the Giants into the playoffs. In his 306 PA Posey has a BA of .342, OBP of .386, SLG of .516, wOBA .387, and a WAR of 3.0. Scary good numbers and hes only been playing for a fraction of the season. Definite ROY candidate along with Strasburg above. I think Posey should take it. One thing that makes him very valuable is his position.
Jason Heyward – Atlanta Braves Age : 20 Salary : 2010 .4 million Heyward stepped into the box for his first plate appearance against the Chicago Cubs and you know what he did? He slammed a home run. Well thats not a logical reason for him to be on this list, but these stats are. BA/OBP/SLG/wOBA is the stat line for these. His 3.2 WAR is very good for a rookie who also was selected to the All-Star team. His fielding is also very good 3.0 UZR. He is a right fielder and though his body type doesn’t fit the prototypical center fielder I think one day he can be one and upgrade his follow. David Price – Tampa Bay Rays Position : Pitcher Age : 24 Salary : 2010 1m, 2011 1.25m Price has turned himself into the leagues younger premier pitchers. A possible, but not probable Cy Young winner for 2010. He is coming into his own in his second full season as a starter a 2.97 ERA even though his FIP indicates hes a bit lucky, but he is still doing very well. His WAR is 3.5. Price can get strikeouts his 8.33 K/9 shows and he strands runners on base 76.2 LOB%. Price, Garza, and Hellickson will be a nice head of the rotation for Tampa for a long time.
Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers Position : Pitcher Age : 24 Salary : 2010 .5m, 2011 3.5m You might think the only Brewers that could make this list would be Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Well you would be wrong. Gallardo is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. In the National League this season I’d say hes been worthy of being the 5th best pitcher there behind Halladay, Johnson, Wainwright, and Jimenez. Gallardo’s 3.28 ERA should be a bit lower like his 2.98 FIP. He has already out did his WAR from a season ago by 1.0. Going from 2.7 to 3.7. The Brewers have a nice ace that is a strikeout pitcher. Should be good to build with. Now for the rankings. 10. Justin Upton 9. Jason Heyward 8. Troy Tulowitzki 7. Yovani Gallardo 6. Tommy Hanson 5. Buster Posey 4. David Price 3. Hanley Ramirez 2. Stephen Strasburg 1. Evan Longoria And thats it so I'd love some really smart people to help me out.
Position : Pitcher
Age : 25
2010 Salary : 8 million
tERA – 2.06
WAR – 20.8
Age : 22
2010 Salary : 500k
Age : 27
2010 Salary : 12.5 million
Age : 26
2010 Salary : 7 million
Age : 24
2010 Salary : 950k
.269/
.380/
.454
/.368
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danggggggg
that came out bad.
"Enjoy your sweat because hard work doesn't guarantee success, but without it, you don't have a chance." - Alex Rodriguez
by Yankee_Country on Aug 27, 2010 12:28 AM EDT reply actions
Copy and paste doesn't work well w/ SB Nation.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Try this...
Run the post through WordOff.org, and remove weird formatting.
Formerly known as "Andersklasen."
Check out the best Twins' blog on the web: TwinsTarget.com.
This list does seem a bit too reactive to the 2010 season.
Lets pretend that you knew that Strasburg was having TJ surgery, you probably bump him down a bit if not entirely off, so no need in counting that.
In which case, David Price is that top pitcher you’d start a franchise with?
Felix Hernandez is some 8 months younger than David Price and has already passed the growing pains Price is enduring now. Price’s 3.5 WAR season currently would be Felix’s worst full-time season of his career, closest to his 3.9-WAR 2008 season.
Now, clearly you take money into account and that’s fair. And I can’t sit here and say exactly what David Price will get paid. I am also not an expert on the arbitration process. I do know that per Cot’s, Price will be cheap until he’s hit arbitration, at which point he can “void salary and file for arbitration any time he is arbitration eligible” Price is going to get paid soon, even if its in terms of a contract extension.
If I am truly starting a franchise and taking everything into account, I have to take into account that Price isn’t going to cost 1 million per season very long. And a player like Felix, I know exactly what he will cost. 10 million in 2011 and ~19 million over the next 3 years. For some, the amount of innings he’s put on his arm would be a concern, for others, it would be a blessing. He’s been one of the most reliable starters in the league since 2005, no serious injuries, 1 DL trip, and most batters faced over the last 2 years I believe. All doing it as one of the top 5 pitchers in the game.
Now, there is also the matter of being a homer. Felix is in fact my favorite player in baseball. But that set aside, David Price is 25th in FIP amonst ML Starters. He is 40th in xFIP. But because of his ERA, the good defense behind him, and a flattering wins total, he is going to be overpaid shortly in the future.
So it’s not just Felix I would take over him. It’s any number of guys; Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, Mat Latos, Ubaldo Jimenez, Clayton Kershaw, and so on. It’s not just that they’re better or more proven, but they also don’t appear to be in line to be as overpaid as he may end up being.
Evan Longoria is a solid #1 though. The rest of the list would probably go differently for me, but I’ll just make that one point about David Price.
years under team control
As i believe i mentioned in May, it is important to point out the number of years these players are under team control for along with their salaries, & number of arbitration eligible years they have left, if they are already not past that point.
All pitchers are wrong...
… replace Hanson, Gallardo, Price, Strasburg with King Felix, Josh Johnson, Wainwright, Clay Bucholtz (or Lester, take your pick). Replace Upton with Carlos Gonzalez. Joey Votto has to be on there, maybe Zimmerman too, so drop Tulo.
Bucholz is lucky, Lester is too old
Gonalez’s season is babip inflated and i would bet money on that he’s never going to repeat it. plus is home and away splits are horrible, and pretty much showcases the coors field affect. Wainwright is also too old to consider to build a franchise around (turning 30), and if you are going to go with older pitchers might as well take halladay and cliff lee. Troy belongs because it’s rare to find Shortstops that good offensively outside of hanely these days. Big drop off at the SS position after those two. Plus Troy posts decent numbers outside of Coorsfield and the split for him has not been as dramatic as Carlo’s
No ryan zimmerman?
This dude has to be the most underrated Player in the league. 2nd in the entire league in WAR and just 1 year older than Longoria. Votto maybe be a bit older but he’s worth considering as he enters his prime.
Off course pitcher wise there’s king felix, Clayton Kershaw (another vastly underrated pitcher) Liriano is also a good choice if he wasn’t injured all the time. Glavin Flyod is another pitcher who is young and dominant
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