The Offseason Trade of Prince Fielder

As frequent visitors to Brew Crew Ball know, I love to use Sky Kalkman's Trade Value Calculator to determine a player's surplus value,and whether or not any trade is worthwhile for either team.  Also among my favorite topics to discuss is the trade of Prince Fielder and what it should or might take for an acquiring team to land him.  I was not a fan at all of Doug Melvin's philosophy this past July that he wanted to wait until the offseason to deal him (or Corey Hart) because there would be more suitors available, thus driving up the asking price.

I personally believe that DM's thoughts on the offseason, especially for a player like Fielder are greatly flawed.  Fielder is due a pretty big contract next year in his final year of arbitration eligiblity, and that will probably eliminate many teams from consideration.  If he had been traded this July, a small to mid market team may have taken a bite on him, overpaid for the chance, and then opted to trade him away again the following offseason to a team that could better afford him, such as the Rays, Rangers or A's, not to mention the Angels because of Kendry Morales' season ending injury, or the Red Sox with Kevin Youkilis'.

The first question to think when wondering about the Prince Fielder trade is: Who can afford, or who will want to pay the $16 million dollars he will probably be due in 2011?  The big market clubs will all qualify here, and a couple of mid market clubs that might want to spend big on a key, final piece.   This list includes the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, White Sox, Tigers, Twins, Angels, Mariners, Braves, Mets, Nationals, Giants and Dodgers.  I have not included teams like the Phillies, Cardinals or Cubs since the Brewers wouldnt trade Fielder to a division rival, and the Phillies wouldnt trade for a First Baseman with Ryan Howard under contract.

Of the teams mentioned, you then have to weed out the AL teams that already have a first baseman, but could use Fielder as a DH.  The big problem is that I dont think that any team wants to pay a DH $16 million.  This eliminates the Yankees, Tigers, Twins and Angels.  It may also eliminate the Red Sox because they would have to move Kevin Youkilis back to Third Base, and they are probably going to excercise David Ortiz' 2011 option.

So here are the teams left that might want to upgrade, or really need a First Baseman for next season:  Orioles, White Sox, Mariners, Braves, Mets, Giants and Dodgers.  I leave out the Nationals because all reports are that the Nat's are going to do all they can to re-up Adam Dunn.  Of this group, the Orioles and Mariners are probably out since they would only get Fielder for one year, and those teams are probably 2 to 3 years away from contention and would be more willing to hold onto the prospects it would take to land Fielder for a one year rental.

Using the Trade Value Calculator, Prince Fielder's 2011 Surplus Value is approximately $9 million.  That's not too much in the grand scheme of things.  Considering that Fielder is a big run producer and bats from the left side, any team that tries to acquire him will probably be willing to pay a premium to acquire him.  I would even venture to say that that premium could be as high as 100% above Surplus Value for the priveledge to use Fielder for one year. 

So that's a top pitching prospect with a few dollars left over to throw in a mid level prospect to land Fielder.  And if you use Mark Teixiera as an example, as most people like to do when talking about dealing Fielder, it means an established major leaguer, a decent prospect, and a throw in (the Braves received Steven Marak and Casey Kotchman for 1/2 year of Teixiera).

Can the teams that might be in the running for Fielder for 2011 pull off a trade?

The White Sox could probably get him for John Danks, Dayan Viciedo and a throw in.  Personally I was pushing for the Hudson/Viciedo deal last month for Corey Hart for the Brewers and as a starting point for the Fielder trade, but Doug Melvin seems headstrong about wanting back major league level talent back in return for Fielder/Hart and Hudson was probably too inexperienced for his tastes, and talk was out there that the key piece for the Brewers was Gordan Beckham.  Hudson is proving me right so far with his performance with the Diamondbacks this 2nd half of 2010.

The Braves could probably pull off the trade with Jair Jurrjens and a throw in.  Last season I wondered whether Jurrjens was worth as much as Fielder with a post on this site, and have also felt that a prospect package involving guys like Randall Delgado or Julio Teheran (before they really turned into big time prospects) would have been a great pickup for Fielder.  The Braves are probably a little gun shy with prospect laden deals since the Teixira/Rangers trade a while back and that 2nd idea probably would never have happened, plus DM just doesnt believe that the Brewers are in, or need to undertake a 3 year rebuild project that a trade like that would indicate.

The Mets are an interesting thought here.  They might want to upgrade at First Base this offseason since Ike Davis hasn't blown off the doors in his debut, and he could be a key part of any deal with the Brewers that involves Prince Fielder.  The Mets could probably get Fielder if they made an offer of Ike Davis and Mike Pelfrey.  they could also proably pull off the deal with a Jenry Mejia and Ike Davis package, but I'm willing to bet that DM would prefer Pelfrey over Mejia.

The Giants would love Prince Fielder, and with him they would be in the lead right now in the NL West.  But the package that it would take to land him has been reportedly rejected by the Giants (Jonathan Sanchez and Thomas Neal plus a throw in).  Another possibility would be Madison Bumgarner and Thomas Neal but I would be shocked if the Giants dealt Bumgarner.  Who knows?  If they were to miss the playoffs this year by a game or two they might be motivated to give up one of those pitchers in a trade involving Prince Fielder.

Lastly, the Dodgers.  The Dodgers could probably land Prince Fielder if they were willing to give up Chad Billingsley and a prospect.  The Dodgers have a multitude of prospects that could make a Fielder deal look very good for them, but again, DM and his owner, Mark Attanasio want premium return that will help for the 2011 season, and a package of Chris Withrow, Josh Lindblom and Trayvon Robinson is not one the Brewers will be willing to make. 

The Brewers could possibly get 2 top prospects and another decent one in return for Fielder, but only if the acquiring team was able to sign him to an extension, which is something Fielder's agent, Scott Boras is not going to let him do.  Each of the deals listed above are extreme overpayments for one year of Prince Fielder's services, and in the end, probably dont improve the Brewers that much if at all.  At best, the deals mentioned above, simply fill one hole by creating another, and in 2 years, they would be left with nothing.

My personal opinion is that the Brewers could have traded Prince Fielder this past July to the pitching stocked Rays for a 2010 playoff push/run and have recieved a package including at least Alexander Colome, Jake McGee and Nick Barnese.  The Rays would have then turned around during the offseason and trade their star rental for 3 prospects in return of equal or greater value to the teams mentioned here.  The Brewers would have greatly restocked their depleted farm system with high upside arms that would be ready by the 2012/13 season, have 6 years of control of those players at reasonable prices, and get perhaps 10 wins per year or more and only give up 6 at the most with the loss of Fielder.

Did Doug Melvin make a mistake by not dealing Prince Fielder before the July 31, 2010 trading deadline, or is there still hope that he can improve the Brewers for the present and future when he trades Prince Fielder?