The Cy Young Award is awarded to the best pitcher in each league each year. However, 'best' has two possible definitions: best results (Rally WAR) or most talent (FIP). Some years it's not a factor, as the same guy leads both categories. When 2 different pitchers lead a category, what mode of thinking have the voters tended to select?
Here are the NL Cy Young Award winners, along with 4 other categories. A 'y' indicates the award winner leading that category. FIP Leader is the lowest FIP amongst qualified starters, and the number in parentheses is the difference between the leader and the winner of the award. Below 2nd is the margin between the FIP leader and the 2nd lowest FIP. The same concept applies to the Rally side.
| NL | Winner | FIP Leader (Diff) | Below 2nd | Rally Leader (Diff) | Above 2nd |
| 2009 | Lincecum | y | 0.43 | y | 0.3 |
| 2008 | Lincecum | y | 0.39 | y | 0.5 |
| 2007 | Peavy | y | 0.37 | y | 0.1 |
| 2006 | Webb | y | 0.12 | y | (Arroyo) 0 |
| 2005 | Carpenter | Clemens (0.03) | 0.02 | Clemens (2.4) | 0.8 |
| 2004 | Clemens | Johnson (0.81) | 0.35 | Johnson (2.2) | 1.1 |
| 2003 | Gagne | Prior | 0.17 | Prior (1.9) | 0.3 |
| 2002 | Johnson | Schilling (0.26) | 0.26 | y | 2 |
| 2001 | Johnson | y | 0.92 | y | 1.1 |
| 2000 | Johnson | y | 0.64 | y | 1.1 |
| 1999 | Johnson | y | 0.38 | y | 1.8 |
| 1998 | Glavine | Brown (1.27) | 0.48 | Brown (2.8) | 1.9 |
| 1997 | Martinez | y | 0.04 | y | 0.9 |
| 1996 | Smoltz | y | 0.09 | Brown (1.4) | 1.2 |
| 1995 | Maddux | y | 0.61 | y | 3.9 |
| 1994 | Maddux | y | 0.37 | y | 2.6 |
| 1993 | Maddux | y | 0.08 | Rijo (2.4) | 2.4 |
| 1992 | Maddux | y | 0.12 | y | 2.4 |
| 1991 | Glavine | Cone (0.54) | 0.01 | y | 1.9 |
| 1990 | Drabek | Gooden (0.84) | 0.39 | Whitson (2.3) | 0.2 |
| 1989 | Davis | Hershiser | 0.18 | Hershiser (2.5) | 0.3 |
| 1988 | Hershiser | Ojeda (0.82) | 0.18 | y | 1.5 |
| 1987 | Bedrosian | Ryan | 0.47 | Hershiser (4.1) | 0.1 |
| 1986 | Scott | y | 0.62 | y | 1.7 |
| 1985 | Gooden | y | 0.45 | y | 4.2 |
| 1984 | Sutcliffe | Gooden | 0.92 | Gooden (1.7) | 0.2 |
| 1983 | Denny | Hammaker (0.30) | 0.08 | y | 0.5 |
| 1982 | Carlton | y | 0.01 | Rogers (2.7) | 1.3 |
| 1981 | Valenzuela | Gullickson (0.33) | 0.17 | y | (Carlton) 0 |
| 1980 | Carlton | y | 0.47 | y | 3.4 |
| 1979 | Sutter | Richard | 0.9 | Niekro (2.1) | 0.7 |
| 1978 | G. Perry | Richard (0.12) | 0.08 | Niekro (4.4) | 2.6 |
| 1977 | Carlton | Rogers (0.55) | 0.02 | Reuschel (2.9) | 0.2 |
| 1976 | Jones | Seaver (0.70) | 0.29 | Montefusco (1.6) | 0.3 |
| 1975 | Seaver | y | 0.07 | y | (Jones) 0 |
| 1974 | Marshall | Matlack (0.17) | 0.17 | Matlack (5.5) | 1.1 |
| 1973 | Seaver | y | 3.3 | ||
| 1972 | Carlton | y | 4.6 | ||
| 1971 | Jenkins | y | (Seaver) 0 | ||
| 1970 | Gibson | y | 0.6 | ||
| 1969 | Seaver | Gibson (3.4) | 2 | ||
| 1968 | Gibson | y | 4.4 | ||
| 1967 | McCormick | Bunning (3.4) | 1.6 |
The FIP leader was chosen 18 of the 36 years and the Rally WAR leader was chosen 25 out of the 43 years. If a pitcher led both categories, they won the award 15 of the 22 years, and the award winner led neither category 13 of the 36 years. For the NL, the Rally WAR leader was chosen 58% to FIP's 50%. The American League has the same trend.
| AL | Winner | FIP Leader | Below 2nd | Rally Leader | Above 2nd |
| 2009 | Greinke | y | 0.47 | y | 2.2 |
| 2008 | Lee | y | 0.2 | y | 0.8 |
| 2007 | Sabathia | Beckett (0.06) | 0.06 | y | 0.2 |
| 2006 | Santana | y | 0.25 | y | 1.6 |
| 2005 | Colon | Santana (0.95) | 0.3 | Santana (1.9) | 0.8 |
| 2004 | Santana | y | 0.19 | y | 1 |
| 2003 | Halladay | Martinez (1.02) | 0.84 | y | 0.1 |
| 2002 | Zito | Martinez (1.63) | 0.73 | Halladay (0.4) | 0.3 |
| 2001 | Clemens | Mussina (0.37) | 0.1 | Mussina (1.1) | 0.6 |
| 2000 | Martinez | y | 1.33 | y | 4.5 |
| 1999 | Martinez | y | 1.86 | y | 2.6 |
| 1998 | Clemens | y | 0.75 | y | 0.6 |
| 1997 | Clemens | y | 0.57 | y | 2.6 |
| 1996 | Hentgen | Appier (0.55) | 0.04 | y | 0.7 |
| 1995 | Johnson | y | 1.4 | y | 1.6 |
| 1994 | Cone | Johnson (0.62) | 0.19 | y | 0.2 |
| 1993 | McDowell | Appier (0.71) | 0.15 | Appier (4.3) | 0.4 |
| 1992 | Eckersley | Clemens | 0.06 | Clemens (4.9) | 0.3 |
| 1991 | Clemens | y | 0.18 | y | 0.5 |
| 1990 | Welch | Clemens (2.01) | 0.56 | Clemens (7.0) | 2 |
| 1989 | Saberhagen | y | 0.06 | y | 2.8 |
| 1988 | Viola | Clemens (0.78) | 0.63 | Gubicza (0.3) | 0.3 |
| 1987 | Clemens | y | 0.34 | y | 0.8 |
| 1986 | Clemens | y | 0.3 | Higuera (0.5) | 0.5 |
| 1985 | Saberhagen | y | 0.27 | y | 0.2 |
| 1984 | Hernandez | M. Witt | 0.09 | Stieb (2.9) | 1.5 |
| 1983 | Hoyt | Righetti (0.46) | 0.25 | Stieb (2.7) | 1.1 |
| 1982 | Vuckovich | Koosman (0.96) | 0.11 | Stieb (4.1) | 1.6 |
| 1981 | Fingers | Barker | 0.37 | Blyleven (0.8) | 0.7 |
| 1980 | Stone | May (1.05) | 0.16 | Burns (2.9) | 0.9 |
| 1979 | Flanagan | Guidry (0.22) | 0.07 | Eckersley (3.2) | 0.3 |
| 1978 | Guidry | y | 0.52 | y | 1 |
| 1977 | Lyle | Guidry | 0.03 | Ryan (4.7) | 0.4 |
| 1976 | Palmer | Blue (0.76) | 0.15 | Fidrych (2.1) | 0.8 |
| 1975 | Palmer | Tanana (0.47) | 0.47 | Tanana (0.2) | 0.2 |
| 1974 | Hunter | Blyleven (0.80) | 0.39 | G. Perry (1.8) | 0.6 |
| 1973 | Palmer | Blyleven (3.1) | 1.3 | ||
| 1972 | G. Perry | y | 0.8 | ||
| 1971 | Blue | Wood (1.9) | 1.9 | ||
| 1970 | J. Perry | McDowell (4.4) | 1.8 | ||
| 1969 | Cuellar/McLain | McLain (3.2) | 1.2 | ||
| 1968 | McLain | Tiant (1.3) | 1.3 | ||
| 1967 | Lonborg | Merritt (1.7) | 0.5 |
Winners: FIP 15/36 (42%), Rally 19/43 (44%), Both 14/20, Neither 17/36
Here are the ML winners. Fangraphs only has pitching leaderboards back to 1974, so that is why the FIP section stops then.
| ML | Winner | Rally Leader (Diff) | Above 2nd |
| 1966 | Koufax | y | 1.8 |
| 1965 | Koufax | Marichal (1.0) | 0.9 |
| 1964 | Chance | y | 0.7 |
| 1963 | Koufax | y | 0.5 |
| 1962 | Drysdale | Farrell (1.7) | 0.2 |
| 1961 | Ford | Cardwell (2.1) | 0.1 |
| 1960 | Law | Drysdale (2.5) | 0.4 |
| 1959 | Wynn | Wilhelm (4.7) | 0.1 |
| 1958 | Turley | Jones (3.2) | 0.2 |
| 1957 | Spahn | Sullivan (1.4) | 0.2 |
| 1956 | Newcombe | Wynn (4.1) | 0.6 |
It's fun to see how bad some of the picks were: McDowell in '93, Welch in '90 (27 wins, I know), any reliever... We can also see how dominant Randy, Roger, and Pedro were. We see forgotten pitchers to many, such as Dave Stieb and Kevin Appier. Also, how long ago would Blyleven have been elected to the HOF if he had won a couple of the awards he probably deserved?
This confirms what I thought to begin with: fewer runs allowed is more important to the voters than true talent. As much as I love FIP, I think the results, lucky or not, should be the more important part of the voting process.
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