Friday Night Li- Notes...

by Satchel Price on Aug 13, 2010 8:08 PM EDT

We had a pretty big day today. The Giants traded for Jose Guillen and announced that he'd be their regular right fielder. Rocco Baldelli has officially gone from special instructor to Triple-A Durham in the course of less than a month. Chipper Jones told the media that he plans to play in 2011. Reports came out that Francisco Rodriguez beat up his girlfriend's father inside CitiField. You know, baseball stuff.

But there's actual stuff going on in actual games, too, and I thought I'd mention a couple passing thoughts I've had of late.

Did the Giants just make themselves worse?

I'm just saying, I think this is a question worth asking in regards to the Guillen acquisition.

Three of the teams five best hitters this season have been Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell and Travis Ishikawa. But now the Giants are benching Ishikawa, moving Huff back to first base, and installing Guillen in the outfield. Not only does this downgrade the team's defense at first base while maintaining the team's awful corner outfield defense, but I think that it's questionable whether or not Guillen can improve on the .339 wOBA that Ishikawa's put up so far. ZiPS projects Ishikawa to put up a .329 wOBA through the rest of the season, one point higher than Guillen's rest-of-season .328 wOBA.

I mean, I know they didn't give up much of anything to get Guillen in the first place. I'm just not sure if getting Guillen for free would even be worth it for San Francisco.

Miguel Cabrera's officially having a special season.

The Tigers first baseman is currently projected by ZiPS to finish with 35+ homers, 50+ doubles, 85+ walks and a batting average over .330 for the season. These are numbers that have been reached within a single-season on only seven occasions in MLB history, with five of them coming since 2000. Todd Helton is the only place in history to accomplish the feat twice (2000, 2001), while Hank Greenberg, Lou Gehrig, Carlos Delgado, Derrek Lee and David Ortiz have also done it once.

We're witnessing a truly impressive career when it comes to Miguel Cabrera.

Another example of why ERA is flawed

Tim Hudson peripherals: 1.57 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 65% groundball rate, 4.06 xFIP

Justin Masterson peripherals: 1.73 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 63% groundball rate, 4.11 xFIP

Tim Hudson BABIP: .235

Justin Masterson BABIP: .347

Tim Hudson ERA: 2.24

Justin Masterson ERA: 5.47

He may not qualify for the batting title, but he's been by far the most valuable shortstop in baseball this year.

No, no, it's not Troy Tulowitzki. Why, you haven't seen what Rafael Furcal's been doing this season?

Raffy's line currently sits at .316/.380/.492 with 20 doubles, 5 triples and 8 homers in 76 games. Factor in his above-average defense (+6.3 UZR, +5 DRS) and base-running value (18-for-22 on SB attempts), and you're looking at some elite-level performance from the Dodgers shortstop.

Yeah, there's been a peculiar lack of star-quality performance from shortstops this year. But when you've played in only 76 of your team's 112 games and you're still the most valuable player at your respective position in all of baseball, you're obviously having a damn good season.

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Comments

Nice write up.

I knew Raffy had been the leading SS in WAR, but only 76 games played? Special. I would have guess Tulo or Han Ram would be getting that title but Tulo got hurt and Hanley is having a not so Hanley year.

I checked the WAR standings on fangraphs and I see Zimmerman jumping up to 5.3 I think. Not sure if thats the exact number. I knew he would finish better than David Wright.

"Enjoy your sweat because hard work doesn't guarantee success, but without it, you don't have a chance." - Alex Rodriguez

by Yankee_Country on Aug 13, 2010 8:30 PM EDT reply actions

Interesting note on Huddy and Masterson

ERA is certainly flawed but Hudson has outperformed DIPS his entire career. ERA of 3.40 to a FIP of 3.80. He might be a special case, a la Johan Santana.

by James Kannengieser on Aug 14, 2010 12:42 AM EDT reply actions

Flawed stat?

Just pointing out their numbers you can make just as good a case that xFIP is flawed.

"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.

by RallyMonkey5 on Aug 16, 2010 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Looking a bit deeper on Masterson

He continues to struggle mightily against lefthanders. He’ll have to come up with something to handle lefties if he’s ever going to succeed as a starter. I can see why the Indians are giving him a try starting – they are going nowhere this year so they can afford some development time, and he seems to have the arm/stamina to be a starter. It would be a waste to use him as a roogy. But if he were on a contending team, that is the only role he’d be effective in, at least for now.

"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.

by RallyMonkey5 on Aug 16, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, his struggles with LH hitters are definitely a major issue

He could really use another weapon, but some improvement against lefties could go a long way given how strong he is against right-handers.

I certainly wasn’t saying that Masterson is significantly better than his ERA, because the massive platoon split does make stats like xFIP far less reflective of their actual skill level. But there are a lot of people calling for Masterson to move to the bullpen, and I just see a guy who could take some absolutely huge strides if his changeup shows improvement. When you’re not contending, and Cleveland obviously isn’t, I think it’s entirely reasonable to keep giving Masterson chances.

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I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Aug 16, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Why would a large platoon split make xFIP less refelctive of a player's skill/expected ERA?

by vivaelpujols on Aug 16, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Travis Ishikawa is not that good. I’m certainly not saying that Guillen is better than he is, and taking defense into account, it is probably an overall downgrade (though it’s not like Huff in RF is such a great idea). But I’m not sure I’d even trust Ishikawa to put up a .329 wOBA for the rest of the season. And I’d say Huff, Torres, Posey, Burrell, Uribe; Ishikawa’s riding a .340 BABIP, and Uribe’s got a .275 mark. Uribe’s got a higher BB%, lower K%, higher ISO, and better Spd; pretty much the only thing Ishi’s got is a better LD rate. Ishikawa’s wOBA is higher than Uribe’s, but that’s likely a function of the BABIP IMO.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Aug 14, 2010 4:23 AM EDT reply actions

Just a heads up to Giants/NL West fans,

just wait until you get to watch Jose Guillen play RF. I can’t think of anyone with less range than him. Heck, watching him try to run the bases is worth the price of admission.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Aug 14, 2010 7:19 AM EDT reply actions

Heck, watching him try to run the bases is worth the price of admission.

I didn’t see/hear the game today, but apparently this aspect of Guillen’s game was on full display.

-sad Giants fan is sad

"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.

by hairball on Aug 16, 2010 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions

It was really bad. I was shocked to see how slow he was out of the box. He’s easily the slowest guy on the Giants now barring an injury.

by dogdays on Aug 16, 2010 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions

After watching him for 2 1/2 years and he was on full display this year,

I’m not surprised. It really is amazing isn’t it?

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Aug 16, 2010 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions

What’s incredible is that this is coming from someone who has watched Bengie Molina for a few years. This is bad news for Giants fans…

by dogdays on Aug 19, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I can’t think of anyone with less range than him

Well, we do have Pat Burrell in the OF, so I think I can picture something pretty close to what you’re describing…..

I’m just not sure if getting Guillen for free would even be worth it for San Francisco.

I think Guillen starting for us does make us a worse team. Guillen for free as a bench player would be fine, and an upgrade over someone like Manny Burriss….

by Missing Barry on Aug 16, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions