Jeff's Special Sauce - Easy Formula for Evaluating Pitchers

I am always looking at ways to make complex formulas simpler. For pitchers, I started using just K/9 minus BB/9 to measure how good they were. It has not been a bad to evaluate pitchers from one season to the next, but I haven't been able to take into account any batted balls. I really wanted to include ground ball rate since it prevents home runs and correlates decent from year to year as seen from this information from "Baseball: Between the Numbers":

 

Winning percentage - .204
Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) - .272
ERA - .380
Home runs per batter faced - .470
Hits allowed per batter faced - .499
Walks (W) per batter faced - .676
Strikeouts (SO) per batter faced - .790
Ground ball (GB) percentage - .807

 

Using the numbers that are somewhat easy to find and correlate easy from season to season, I came up with the following formula:

 

Jeff's secret pitching sauce = K/9 – BB/9 + [(Ground ball Percentage in Decimal format)*10]

 

The values doesn't represent any existing number, but correlates decent with FIPs (r-squared = -0.67) and xFIPs (r-squared = 0.91) when looking at all the qualified starters over the past 5 years.

Here is a list of how often values showed up for the starters I looked at:

 

Sauce Percent of Qualified Starters
12 0.7%
11 6.2%
10 10.2%
9 15.6%
8 18.5%
7 22.5%
6 18.2%
5 6.4%
4 1.7%

 

 

An equation that could be used to compare it to ERA is the following:

ERAs = -0.31*(sauce) + 6.78

I used the equation recently to look at some minor league pitchers over at RoyalsReview.com.


I never expect it to catch on, but it is an easy number to figure in your head given the 3 values.  Also, It should be relatively constant from season to season. Let me know what you think.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Beyond the Box Score

You must be a member of Beyond the Box Score to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Beyond the Box Score. You should read them.

Join Beyond the Box Score

You must be a member of Beyond the Box Score to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Beyond the Box Score. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker