BtB Power Rankings: Week 14 - Before the All-Star Break

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Allrank-070810_medium

"On Paper" Playoff Rankings

American League: E=Yankees, C=Twins,  W=Rangers, WC=Rays
National League: E=Braves, C=Cardinals, W=Padres, WC=Rockies*

* New this week

This Weeks' Breakdown

First, a quick methods update: I opted to change the new fielding term that debuted last week so that it uses FIP instead of xFIP.  This way, I'm not crediting/penalizing fielders for differences in typical HR/FB rate.  I am park-adjusting the HR term in FIP used in this calculation.  For the most part, it doesn't make a huge difference.

The Rockies are the latest team to enter the power rankings.  They are always a tough team to evaluate because of the strong influence of their home park, but last year we had them ranked higher than most other power rankings for most of the year...and they did ultimately make the playoffs.  This week, they have finally risen into the wild card slot.  

Last year's team won with their pitching, which many didn't recognize for being as good as it was because of the park factors.  This year's team is more balanced in its attack: the offense is average (8th in NL in park adjusted wOBA, .324), the fielding is a bit above average (+8 in fielding by our metric), and their pitching is a bit above average as well (6th in xFIP at 4.15, 6th in FIP at 3.89).  They're an interesting team moving forward.  The injury to Helton could let them move Hawpe's horrid fielding to 1B, and might get Seth Smith--who has fabulous projections and has been above-average in the field--get more PT.  Add to that a return by Tulowitzki late in the season, and this team could make a big push...even despite the inevitable(?) regression from Jimenez.

 

Under the Hood

(for the curious amongst you)

Converting Wins to Runs

Team G RS eRS RA eRA W% pW% cW% xtW LgAdj TPI
ARI 85 365 366 463 407 0.376 0.388 0.449 67 -7 0.431
ATL 85 402 400 335 336 0.588 0.583 0.581 95 -7 0.563
BAL 84 301 330 454 444 0.298 0.316 0.365 53 7 0.382
BOS 85 446 462 383 393 0.576 0.573 0.577 93 7 0.593
CHW 83 353 346 345 355 0.542 0.512 0.488 84 7 0.507
CHC 85 330 342 367 352 0.447 0.451 0.488 76 -7 0.469
CIN 86 411 425 363 396 0.570 0.558 0.533 90 -7 0.516
CLE 84 351 352 431 414 0.393 0.404 0.425 66 7 0.442
COL 84 375 385 337 354 0.548 0.549 0.539 88 -7 0.521
DET 83 380 406 373 378 0.554 0.509 0.534 88 7 0.551
FLA 84 395 387 371 373 0.476 0.530 0.517 80 -7 0.499
HOU 85 302 273 421 400 0.400 0.351 0.330 59 -7 0.312
KCR 85 366 379 397 410 0.459 0.462 0.463 75 7 0.480
LAD 84 413 407 389 380 0.548 0.529 0.533 88 -7 0.516
LAA 87 407 372 414 425 0.529 0.492 0.438 79 7 0.455
MIL 85 404 427 456 431 0.435 0.442 0.496 75 -7 0.479
MIN 84 394 412 347 347 0.536 0.559 0.580 90 7 0.597
NYY 84 456 450 347 357 0.631 0.627 0.609 101 7 0.625
NYM 85 399 382 346 384 0.553 0.566 0.498 85 -7 0.480
OAK 86 351 358 363 362 0.477 0.484 0.495 79 7 0.513
PHI 83 383 358 342 349 0.518 0.553 0.513 83 -7 0.494
PIT 84 275 283 466 430 0.357 0.272 0.313 54 -7 0.296
SDP 84 385 356 310 307 0.583 0.598 0.567 93 -7 0.548
SEA 84 296 297 366 371 0.405 0.405 0.401 65 7 0.420
SFG 84 365 362 312 363 0.524 0.571 0.499 83 -7 0.481
STL 84 388 397 332 336 0.536 0.571 0.578 90 -7 0.560
TBR 84 430 416 326 332 0.607 0.627 0.605 98 7 0.623
TEX 84 432 425 349 377 0.595 0.600 0.556 93 7 0.573
TOR 85 382 368 384 362 0.494 0.498 0.508 81 7 0.527
WSN 85 347 360 390 392 0.447 0.445 0.460 73 -7 0.442

G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals.  If you don't like the league adjustment, click in the header and sort by this column to get an "unsullied" ranking.
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here, and modified most recently here).  The number shown is the number of runs credited to both the offense and defense of AL teams, as well as the number penalized to both the offenses and defenses of NL teams.  By season's end, each team's run differential will be altered by 28 runs.
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.

 

 

Team Offenses and Defenses

Team RS eRS wOBA OBP SLG wRC EqBRR Clutch RA eRA ERA FIP xFIP xFIPrns Field BABIP
ARI 365 366 0.323 0.328 0.421 374 -7 -16 463 407 5.39 4.93 4.60 400 -7 0.320
ATL 402 400 0.330 0.342 0.394 396 5 9 335 336 3.66 3.85 4.03 349 13 0.292
BAL 301 330 0.312 0.318 0.380 331 -1 -12 454 444 5.14 4.80 4.83 412 -32 0.318
BOS 446 462 0.351 0.350 0.466 464 -2 -8 383 393 4.33 4.14 4.51 400 7 0.298
CHW 353 346 0.320 0.324 0.406 346 0 1 345 355 4.10 3.82 4.12 351 -4 0.306
CHC 330 342 0.314 0.322 0.399 347 -5 -39 367 352 4.00 4.00 4.10 356 4 0.305
CIN 411 425 0.338 0.340 0.448 424 1 -6 363 396 4.25 4.34 4.54 406 10 0.303
CLE 351 352 0.319 0.323 0.381 353 -1 -14 431 414 4.65 4.52 4.72 403 -10 0.308
COL 375 385 0.324 0.340 0.426 380 5 -21 337 354 4.04 3.89 4.15 362 8 0.299
DET 380 406 0.338 0.344 0.422 407 -1 25 373 378 4.29 4.13 4.58 388 10 0.303
FLA 395 387 0.327 0.328 0.403 382 5 -21 371 373 4.04 3.81 4.22 363 -10 0.308
HOU 302 273 0.291 0.295 0.347 270 3 39 421 400 4.48 3.94 4.27 368 -32 0.330
KCR 366 379 0.324 0.338 0.406 379 0 -9 397 410 4.59 4.50 4.61 402 -7 0.301
LAD 413 407 0.332 0.337 0.407 400 7 -10 389 380 4.10 3.86 4.07 353 -27 0.308
LAA 407 372 0.323 0.323 0.402 374 -2 12 414 425 4.39 4.28 4.46 398 -27 0.311
MIL 404 427 0.339 0.333 0.429 427 0 -25 456 431 4.87 4.35 4.42 387 -44 0.329
MIN 394 412 0.338 0.344 0.423 413 -1 -15 347 347 3.96 3.91 4.14 359 12 0.306
NYY 456 450 0.350 0.354 0.434 456 -5 21 347 357 3.90 4.18 4.26 367 10 0.281
NYM 399 382 0.326 0.324 0.402 378 5 -6 346 384 3.83 4.12 4.41 389 5 0.308
OAK 351 358 0.318 0.323 0.376 359 -1 -1 363 362 3.89 4.27 4.29 378 16 0.288
PHI 383 358 0.323 0.325 0.416 365 -7 14 342 349 4.03 4.26 4.17 354 5 0.293
PIT 275 283 0.299 0.303 0.355 288 -5 16 466 430 5.13 4.77 4.72 401 -30 0.316
SDP 385 356 0.319 0.318 0.366 354 2 3 310 307 3.16 3.72 3.83 337 30 0.283
SEA 296 297 0.302 0.309 0.348 300 -3 7 366 371 3.93 4.11 4.49 388 17 0.292
SFG 365 362 0.321 0.324 0.403 361 1 -11 312 363 3.46 3.89 4.38 384 22 0.290
STL 388 397 0.334 0.334 0.414 399 -2 -17 332 336 3.42 3.94 4.03 350 15 0.298
TBR 430 416 0.335 0.339 0.403 410 6 -16 326 332 3.58 4.08 4.14 361 29 0.285
TEX 432 425 0.338 0.345 0.430 416 9 9 349 377 3.90 4.32 4.51 394 16 0.288
TOR 382 368 0.326 0.305 0.438 371 -3 10 384 362 4.30 4.03 4.17 364 2 0.301
WSN 347 360 0.322 0.328 0.402 364 -4 -15 390 392 4.18 4.18 4.50 391 -2 0.313

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics.  We report this in runs.

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: xFIPRns - Field
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs.  Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average.  xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = Described in this post.  It is essentially an average of team UZR, DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately), and BsRFld.  BsRFld is just difference between FIP-based runs allowed and park-adjusted Base Runs, and is a less direct approach of measuring fielding.  The fielding number also includes a catcher fielding statistic, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference.  The methods are essentially those described here.  But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater accuracy.
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play.  Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although park effects and chance events can have effects as well.

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