Mid Season - MLB Awards - (Bad Edition)
by dougbies on Jul 6, 2010 12:53 PM EDT
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Sky's note: This a very good FanPost from BtB reader dougbies which I've bumped to the front page. Good stuff, man, although you're starting to earn the nickname Mr. Negative... ; )
Considering I've seen numerous posts about the good in mlb through the midway point of the season, I wanted to create a post about the bad. I'll point out a couple of poor individual performances/teams and give me some feedback on if you agree, disagree, or have someone else you want to peg into any of these roles.
Least MVPesque - AL
Chone Figgins - Seattle Mariners
Many people bought into another fine looking Jack Z move this off season by bringing in Figgins for four years & 36 million dollars. Coming off a 6.1 WAR .396 OBP season in 2009 there was little reason to doubt this acquisition. Sure Chone was going to be 32 when his contract began, and came off of a career year, but you had to think that he would produce the WAR necessary over the four years to make the deal worth while. His line thus far...
.238 avg
.336 obp
.300 wOBA
86 wRC+
23 of 27 in stolen bases
.04 ISO
.2 WAR
-2 DRS
-12.7 UZR/150
Those are pretty ugly numbers across the board. His LD% is at a career low & he has been hitting more fly balls than he has in years. He is striking out more than ever, getting on base less, & playing poor defense. You would think that in once he gets acclimated to second base again, his defense there will improve. There isn't really much to like about what he has accomplished in a Mariners uniform thus far. You would think that as his .297 babip creeps up more towards his .338 career mark, his numbers will begin looking better across the board. Till then, he looks like a blemish of Jack Z's solid off season, & a mistake signing.
Other possible candidates: Carlos Quinten, Adam Lind, Gordon Beckham
Least MVPesque - NL
Matt Kemp - Los Angeles Dodgers
Kemp came off of a monster 5.1 WAR season in 2009 at age 26 with very high expectations for 2010. Although he only makes 4 million dollars this season, the Dodgers expected him to produce much greater than he has thus far. His ugly stat line thus far...
.265 avg
.322 obp
.339 wOBA
112 wRC+
28.3% k rate
-18 DRS
-29.9 UZR/150
.2 WAR
Kemp isn't hitting terrible, even though his avg & obp are lower than his career norms. It's his defense that makes him look terrible so far this season. Kemp was considered to be a near average defensive center fielder prior to this season, but that looks like it has changed a bit. Both UZR & DRS are in agreement that he has been one of the games worst defenders. Sure it's a somewhat small sample size, but his defensive shortcomings are really beginning to affect his value. Many people considered him a top player/fantasy player entering 2010, & have been disappointed with the results.
Other possible candidates: Carlos Lee, Raul Ibanez, Hunter Pence, Pablo Sandoval
Least Cy Youngesque - AL
Scott Kazmir - Los Angeles Angels
Kazmir is under contract with Angels for 8 million this season, 12 million the next, and then will have his contract bought out for 2.5 million before the 2012 season begins. Kazmir has been good at times throughout his career, but not recently. After seeing him give up seven earned while walking five to the Chicago White Sox yesterday, I realized just how bad Kazmir is. His line...
5.68 FIP
5.98 k/9
4.74 bb/9
1.44 hr/9
16 starts with 87.1 IP
-.2 WAR
8 million dollar salary
Kazmir has a lifetime FIP of four & has struck out a batter per inning throughout his career. The Kazmir we are seeing of late isn't the same Kazmir that had some solid seasons while with the Tamp Bay Rays. His strand & babip rates aren't really too far off his career norms, but his K rate is. Currently at 5.98 per 9, he is striking out about a 1/3 less batters than he normally has throughout his career. His K rate has been trending down for a number of seasons, but 5.98 per nine is a far cry from what it could be at. Although Kazmir's HR/FB ratio is currently at 11.9%, up from his career number of 8.9%, he is somehow giving up fewer fly balls & liners than normal, which is scary. Kazmir has been bad, and in my opinion the worst starting pitcher in the AL this season.
Other possible candidates: Javier Vazquez, Wade Davis, AJ Burnett, Ben Sheets
Least Cy Youngesque - NL
Randy Wolf - Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers attempted to address one of their biggest off season needs this past summer by agreeing to a three year 29.75 million dollar deal with Randy Wolf, a 33 year old pitcher with a career record 14 games over .500. So far, he has disappointed, even though my expectations for him weren't all that high. His stat line thus far...
5.95 FIP
5.31 k/9
4.44 bb/9
1.65 hr/9
17 starts with 103.1 IP
-.7 WAR
9.25 million dollar salary
While his hr rate is quite higher than his career norm of 1.16 per 9, babip & LOB% suggest that he really isn't getting all that unlucky. Wolf is simply walking more, striking up less, giving up the long ball more. This isn't something you really want out of your number two starter. With financial problems in Milwaukee, such as Jeff Suppan being released & Prince Fielder's contract coming up, this is not the type of contract you want if Wolf continues to deliver similar results.
Other possible candidates: Wandy Rodriguez, Ricky Nolasco, Cole Hamels
Most disappointing team AL
The Seattle Mariners
They currently sit at 34-48, 14 games out of the AL West leading Texas Rangers. Many SABR minded people picked them to win the West based on great defense, & a great 1, 2 punch. These people have been disappointed with the product they've seen thus far. Although offense was a glaring need going into the season, it has not been there at all, and they really have not had any spectacular individual performances besides Cliff Lee's.
Most disappointing team NL
Although there are a number of disappointing teams in the NL this season, the Phillies have to be the leaders here. They currently sit at 43-38, four games back of the division leading Atlanta Braves. Although they've had numerous key injuries, such as Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Brad Lidge, Placido Polanco, & Joe Blanton, you had to expect the Phillies to be a better team than they've shown thus far. Going into the season, they had to be considered to favorites to make it to the World Series. If this continues, they may not even make the playoffs in 2010.
Thoughts, comments, concerns???
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Least Valuable player
You have to consider the guy who replaced Figgins. At first I wondered if this was some kind of WAR/$ metric, but if you consider Beckham, Brandon Wood’s near-minimum salary should not keep him from the award.
I continue to be surprised at people being surprised by the Mariners. I picked them for last preseason. Offense has always been more predictable and easier to measure than defense or even pitching. And they sure projected to have a stinker of an offense. Yeah, they’ve done even worse than expected, but never should have been expected to be good at all.
"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.
youth
It is hard to penalize a player that hasn’t even reached arbitration for the first time for poor performance. Although some of these players do have high expectations, their low pay make make their production not hurt as much as it would someone like Carlos Zambrano that makes a ton of dough.
Like I said
If Gordon Beckham is fair game, so is Wood. Beckham is younger than Wood.
"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.
Most dissapointing AL team...
The Orioles. I mean, I didn’t expect them to be in contenion – but was it too much to ask for a little improvement? Of course, as you can see by my username, I am kind of biased. Seriously, though this was supposed to be such an improved team, and this was coming from a number of analysts….
Oh well, there’s always next year.
"Real Orioles don't pout. Real Orioles don't gloat. Real Orioles just win."
agreed
Although their expectations weren’t all that high, it is obvious that they have been disappointing. There really hasn’t been any bright spot for them this season. Gonzo/Roberts/Wieters/Markakis/Jones…So many O’s having ugly years. Guess we just have to give it some more time.
O's aren't to blame.
They play the Yanks, Sox, Rays about 54 times a year.
"All I ever wanted to be is a Yankee. When I was a kid, I was always hoping there'd be a jersey left for me to wear with a single digit, because all of the retired numbers." - Derek Jeter
NYY Quote of the Week.
each*
"All I ever wanted to be is a Yankee. When I was a kid, I was always hoping there'd be a jersey left for me to wear with a single digit, because all of the retired numbers." - Derek Jeter
NYY Quote of the Week.
The Orioles
Have played 1/3 of the schedule against those teams every year. But this Oriole team is worse than usual. That is especially disappointing because with Jones, Markakis, Wieters, and Matusz they were supposed to have some good young players.
"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.
Yeah I don't blame the schedule so much...
as I do our coaching staff’s apparent inability to help ANY of our young talent (which was supposed to be on the verge of breaking out) make an improvment at all this year. In fact, so many of them have taken a step backward. Like dougbies said, just need to give it more time – I haven’t given up on these prospects yet.
"Real Orioles don't pout. Real Orioles don't gloat. Real Orioles just win."
by NewYorkOriole on Jul 7, 2010 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions
spell quentin right
When I was a kid, I didn't want to be a doctor or a fireman. I wanted to be Super Mario. It's the most literal pipe dream I've ever had.
Frankly, I just disagree with his presence on this post in general
His -0.3 WAR is thoroughly disappointing, but it’s also mainly a function of a truly ugly -14.1 UZR that probably doesn’t accurate reflect his skill level.
His .352 wOBA hasn’t been that bad, and he’s been red-hot since the beginning of June. Quentin absolutely would’ve deserved a spot here in late May, but not after the past few weeks that he’s had.
In the past 18 games, he’s batted .345/.449/.793 with 7 home runs, 5 doubles, 20 hits, 7 walks, 5 hit-by-pitches, 13 runs scored and 20 RBI. It’s probably not a total coincidence that the Sox are 14-4 in those games.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 7, 2010 4:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Good points
Quinten was close to being a passable defender in 2008, when healthy. In 2009, his defense sucked, which was most likely connected to his health issues. Although his defense has been real ugly this season, i expected it to be a little better as he became healthier. His recent surge has to keep him out of the negative MVP award though.
once again
QUENTIN not quinten
When I was a kid, I didn't want to be a doctor or a fireman. I wanted to be Super Mario. It's the most literal pipe dream I've ever had.
Frankly, I'm not sure I get this post at all.
I mean, where’s Pedro Feliz? Todd Helton? Cesar Izturis? Maybe you’ve listed the “most disappointing” players, but this is not a list of the least valuable.
How so?
I, like many, had some form of expectations for the players i listed. Although players like Feliz & Helton hare having poor seasons, i never thought they were going to have that solid of years, therefore keeping them off my list. Part of why i chose the players i chose was because of my expectations for them.
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