Leaving 'Em Stranded

by Daniel Moroz on Jul 26, 2010 8:00 AM EDT in Visuals Above Replacement

This post was inspired by Jonah Keri's comment on Twitter during their game last Thursday that "Only the Royals can turn 24,000 baserunners into 4 runs" (they had 4 runs on 19 hits and walks), to which I responded "I beg to differ. O's seem pretty adept at that as well." That was based only on watching most Orioles' games, writing up a game wrap on the majority of those, and too often having to mention that the O's scored only X runs on Y baserunners (with X << Y). Figured it was worth actually looking at instead of just going with my gut, so here's a graphic by team of baserunners (in this case non-home run hits plus walks plus HBP) per run scored. Also added in each team's ISO, since power production is one way of getting more for less.

(Click to embiggen.)

Few teams of note:

The Royals - while bad - aren't particularly close to being the worst in baseball in this regard.
The Orioles are indeed terrible - nice to know I'm not crazy.
It's actually the Mariners who take the top spot (#6org!). The M's have scored a major league low 321 runs on 700 non-HR hits (they've also hit an ML low 61 homers), 311 walks, and 22 HBPs (all stats as of Saturday).
The Rays - who I've seen fans often complain about not turning runners into runs - are towards the better end of the spectrum.
The Blue Jays and their absurd 144 home runs are able to score a decent number of runs without having many people hanging out on the bases (their .309 OBP is fourth worst in the majors).

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I’m surprised the Giants aren’t higher on the list. It always feels like they leave a ton of men on base.

"Dodger fans aren’t happy when foul balls get into their section, because it interferes with their playing with the beachball"- Mike Krukow

by 49er16 on Jul 26, 2010 9:16 AM EDT reply actions

To a point...

Daniel, I’ve been one of the more vocal whiners about the Rays problems and they’re more apparent when you move to the arbitrary point of May 23rd to today. The 1st 44 games when the club went 32-12 terribly skewed their data because the club has been a much different offense. They’re showing more signs of life since mid July but end of May until just before the break was a terribly stretch. They hit .230 with RISP for about a 7 week stretch.

Dockoftherays.com

by Jason Collette on Jul 26, 2010 11:12 AM EDT reply actions

to my point

1st 44 games, the Rays hit .297 with RISP. Since then, they are 126 for 525 which computes to a .240 average and is a big part of why they went from being a club 20 games over .500 in the 1st 44 to a team that is just 1 game over .500 since.

Dockoftherays.com

by Jason Collette on Jul 26, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Fair enough

Just pointed them out since I was specifically asked about the Rays. Luckily those early runs/games still count, and I imagine their RISP numbers will pick up a little going forward.

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by Daniel Moroz on Jul 26, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions

It definitely has

.278 over their last 22. I’ve been tracking the progress on my own little sheet to watch the regression. I’ve done a few posts on it myself related to the Rays and their misuse of Zobrist in the middle of the lineup this season. His average w/RISP has always been below his overall BA but there is a 30 pt difference between the two this season. I would prefer if they just let him leadoff most games because he’s drawing a ton of walks and working counts and is still turning walks and singles into doubles.

Dockoftherays.com

by Jason Collette on Jul 26, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Zobrist at the top

Makes a lot of sense, especially if he’s not going to be hitting nearly as many homers as he did last year.

Orioles blogging at Camden Crazies | Follow on Twitter at @CamdenCrazies

by Daniel Moroz on Jul 26, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions

You do know...

…that I’m purposely drunk and incoherent in my Tweets, right? The kids love it – or so I’m told.

Really good post.

by Jonah Keri on Jul 26, 2010 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs

I didn't, but I'll keep that in mind

Thanks.

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by Daniel Moroz on Jul 26, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Another factor to consider

I think there’s another component to take into consideration here besides ISO. I suspect there’s a pretty severe OBP gradient from left to right as well. Not sure how to quantify it, but what I’d want to know is how much worse these teams are than one might expect based on their overall stats. If there were no difference at all in a team’s season-to-date performance with and without runners on, you should still see a reverse correlation with both OBP and ISO.

In other words, I get annoyed too when Tejada, Jones, Wigginton, Patterson, etc leave runners stranded, but what should I expect when none of those guys make outs less than 67% of the time?

by APBaker on Jul 26, 2010 1:00 PM EDT reply actions

Does getting caugh stealing/picked off subtract a baserunner?

in terms of “Baserunners” in the graph?

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by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 26, 2010 1:24 PM EDT reply actions

I didn't include baserunning

Once the guy made it on. If he was on then he was on – getting erased by a pick-off or whatnot is part of the problem, I’d think. Not a big part, but a cbntributing factor.

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by Daniel Moroz on Jul 26, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions

OK, thanks, that's what I figured

Probably only really matters for the teams at the good and bad extremes of baserunning. But as a Royals fan, I get up close and personal with a baserunning extreme every day (I’ll let you guess which extreme).

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by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 27, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

You know that giddy feeling you get when you look at a graph that's informative, elegant, and altogether awesome?

Nice one, Daniel.

by danmerqury on Jul 26, 2010 1:39 PM EDT reply actions

Toronto is frigging beast

man with that ability to score without baserunners, they must be leading their division! right?

It's like one of those planetarian laser light shows

In your mouth

by YunelTheLazyLatino on Jul 26, 2010 2:54 PM EDT reply actions

AL East

Takes the Gold, Silver, and Bronze

I’m not surprised

by Sveet on Jul 26, 2010 2:54 PM EDT reply actions

#6org!

Any chances they will drop to #7org! next year? Thoughts? :)

by Xeifrank on Jul 26, 2010 3:34 PM EDT reply actions

Or another question.

Any thoughts on when you can come up with cheap shots funnier than the ones you steal from Fangraphs commenters?

MALE

by lailaihei on Jul 26, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

This is the first chance I've had

To use #6org, so I had to take advantage of the opportunity. It’s not just FanGraphs – I picked them to go to the World Series this year (losing to the Braves) on the strength of an awesome run prevention unit. Looks like I grossly underestimated the bad-ness of the offense.

Orioles blogging at Camden Crazies | Follow on Twitter at @CamdenCrazies

by Daniel Moroz on Jul 26, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

#6org jokes are childish and lame

Otherwise nice piece.

by scottg02 on Jul 26, 2010 4:14 PM EDT reply actions

I see it as self-deprecating humor

It wasn’t just Dave Cameron who saw the M’s as a great organization-in-waiting. I did. Sounds like Daniel did. After Jack Z’s first year, things were looking great. Anyone with that viewpoint could use #6org to poke fun at themselves. Did we overreact? Probably. Do I think the M’s will still be really good going forward? Yes.

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by Sky Kalkman on Jul 26, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

#6org! jokes never get too old

Don’t worry about it. Only LoLers are complaining.

by Xeifrank on Jul 26, 2010 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm betting it will get old when the team actually looks good.

But there’s always the #5org Mets jokes that nobody cashed in on last year.

by ThundaPC on Jul 26, 2010 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, we’ll have to sit in the corner with a dunce cap on the year the Mariners win the AL West. Until then…

by Xeifrank on Jul 27, 2010 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions

I see what your saying, but the way its being made fun of

makes it seem like the logic behind it was incorrect. In my opinion it wasn’t. Noone could have imagined nearly every single Mariners batting way below their career averages. Even Ichiro isn’t the same. Were the Mariners a little overrated going in? Maybe so, but there was no way anyone could have predicted them to be this bad, and as you said, they should not be going forward.

by scottg02 on Jul 26, 2010 5:31 PM EDT reply actions