The Low End of the Major Milestones

by adarowski on Jul 25, 2010 9:00 AM EDT

I've been hearing quite a bit about milestones lately and how they just don't mean as much anymore. So I figured I'd take a look at some of the big milestones and see who ranks the lowest in that group, by Rally's WAR (courtesy of Baseball-Reference).

3000 Hits

Name	Hits	WAR
Lou Brock	3023	39.1
Dave Winfield	3110	59.7
Rafael Palmeiro	3020	66.0
Craig Biggio	3060	66.2
Eddie Murray	3255	66.7

Lou Brock is the lowest—and by a lot. Heck, his WAR is even lower than Jim Rice. And he wasn't even feared as much as Jim Rice!

500 Home Runs

Name	Home Runs	WAR
Sammy Sosa	609	59.7
Harmon Killebrew	573	61.1
Mark McGwire	583	63.1
Gary Sheffield	509	63.3
Ernie Banks	512	64.4

There's no Lou Brock on this list. These guys were all legit monsters. Sure the 500 Home Run club has grown lately. But it's welcomed some of the greatest power hitters of all time.

300 Wins

Name	Wins	WAR
Early Wynn	300	52.0
Mickey Welch	307	56.5
Tom Glavine	305	67.0
Pud Galvin	365	70.5
Don Sutton	324	70.8

Wynn also has the lowest ERA+ of the group (107). Worth noting is that only 78 pitchers in history have 50+ WAR (Andy Pettitte just joined the group) while 168 position players have accomplished the feat.

3000 Strikeouts

Name	Strikeouts	WAR
John Smoltz	3084	63.9
Curt Schilling	3116	69.7
Don Sutton	3574	70.8
Pedro Martinez	3154	75.9
Fergie Jenkins	3192	81.3

Only 16 players in history have done this, and this is an incredibly exclusive group. Each of these pitchers is among the top 38 all time by WAR.

300 Saves

Name	Saves	WAR
Todd Jones	319	11.1
Jose Mesa	321	11.4
Randy Myers	347	16.9
Robb Nen	314	17.0
Troy Percival	358	18.1

Remember when 300 saves was a big deal? If there's one milestone that's been cheapened, it's this one. Also, if pitchers have lower WAR compared with hitters, relief pitchers are even lower. It's tough to pick up value an inning at a time. Especially when you threw 1549 innings with an ERA+ of 101 (like Mesa did).

So what's your view on milestones?

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The 3700 strikeout club

Roger Clemens 128.4 WAR
Randy Johnson 91.8 WAR
*Bert Blyleven 90.1 WAR
Nolan Ryan 84.8 WAR
Steve Carlton 84.4 WAR

*denotes eligible for HOF but not inducted

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Jul 25, 2010 11:25 AM EDT reply actions

They're cool.

I like milestones. I think they can be overdone, but they’re cool. As we see here… Even the worst players who’ve hit 500 home runs or gotten 3000 hits were HOF quality. Well, except Brock, who was merely good to very good.

To me, this gives credence to those traditional milestones.

Go Twins!

by Patrick42 on Jul 25, 2010 1:34 PM EDT reply actions

WAR

Interesting that more than twice as many hitters have passed 50 WAR milestone. I’m not sure what to make of it. Is it a function of great pitchers being THAT much more infrequent and thus that much more relatively valuable? Or is it a sign that WAR doesn’t quite correctively evaluate hitters vis-a-vis pitchers?

by BWOzar on Jul 25, 2010 2:09 PM EDT reply actions

My offhand guess

Which I haven’t tried to research at all, so I may be shortly proven wrong here, but I suspect pitchers tend to have shorter careers/burn out faster, due to injuries, etc.

Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?

by Lefti on Jul 25, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Good thought

I think that is sound logic – so is an explanation about opportunity (once every 5 days, etc). But by that standard something seems a bit abstract to me about comparing hitters and pitchers via WAR. I mean is the 168th best hitter of all time that much more valuable than the 168th best pitcher of all time? Like is Gabby Hartnett that much better than Paul Derringer (the respective 168th place hitter and pitcher)?

Though I have to say that seeing Javy Vazquez at #156 for pitchers and Ichiro Suzuki at #152 for hitters makes me think that, yes, maybe good hitters are simply better and more valuable than good pitchers over the course of a career. Or that WAR is rather flawed for pitchers when compared to hitters…

by BWOzar on Jul 25, 2010 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Also worth keeping in mind

Is that teams typically have 8 starting position player slots available, vs. only 5 starting pitcher slots; admittedly, teams almost invariably use more than 5 starters a year, but the 6th and 7th starters are rarely guys you see on the WAR leaderboards. There just aren’t as many openings for pitchers to rack up lots of WAR

Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?

by Lefti on Jul 25, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Hitters contribute to two aspects of the game

Consider the split as 50/50 between offense and defense. Hitters contribute to run scoring (offense) and run prevention (defense, via fielding). Pitchers just pitch (with obviously a little fielding as well), which constitutes the other subset of run prevention. The split would not surprisingly be close to 60/40, which is about where WAR splits on a seasonal basis between position players and pitchers (IIRC).

Along with the fact that, logically, pitchers do tend to pitch less because it’s a more strenuous exercise than being a position player, and that probably explains most of this phenomenon.

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by SFiercex4 on Jul 26, 2010 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions

This is exactly why I think catchers have lower career WAR

Even though they’re rated on the same scale as other hitters. They just can’t last as long.

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on Jul 25, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions

OK, this may be totally unrelated but your comment reminded me of something

Dewan made that post a while back (I think it was Dewan) where he looked at the difference in runs between the best and worst offenses, and the best and worst defenses, per year, and found that the different in defense was about half the difference in offense. This was a consistent trend in the last few years. Could there be a similar relationship going on with position player WAR and pitcher WAR? Is this even remotely similar? Does my comment make everyone else stupider, awarding me no points, and may God have mercy on my soul?

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Jul 26, 2010 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Found the article I was remembering:

http://www.actasports.com/sow.php?id=203

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Jul 26, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I like some milestones.

I don’t see the big deal in milestones that end with 50 though. Usually the 300 game winner will be a solid pitcher unless he gets 6+ runs every time he heads out to the mound. I don’t like 300 saves. I mean the all time saves leader isn’t the best all time. The 500 HR club means something. A HR is obviously worth more than a single with no one on. Also as you seen most all time HR hitters have a solid WAR. 3,000 SO’s is a great accomplishment. A pitcher can control a strikeout. Unlike a ground ball. So I think its a solid achievement.

"Enjoy your sweat because hard work doesn't guarantee success, but without it, you don't have a chance."

by Yankee_Country on Jul 25, 2010 2:43 PM EDT reply actions

Psychology

I think there’s an element of psychology to it. Now, that’s something that’s far from my expertise but I’d imagine it would tap into the same sort of psyche that gets retailers to knock a penny or a nickel off a price. A consumer is more likely to buy an identical product priced at $19.99 then at $20.00. Perhaps because the initial digits impact the way the rest of the number is considered…

Either way, I think it’s fair to guess that the opposite would be true. Someone with 493 home runs (sorry, Crime Dog) has, I imagine, something aesthetically and psychologically less pleasing about their career. They didn’t QUITE make it to the ‘real’ milestone.

Now of course we know that those sort of things are silly. We recognize that a guy who hits .298/.397/.499 is an awesome player even his numbers don’t reach that magical .300/.400/.500 plateau – but to the casual fan I can sort of understand why those distinctions would arise. He still had great years, but something feels a bit saddening to me (someone who loves advanced stats) about the 3 years Jeter hit under .300.

by BWOzar on Jul 25, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

About McGriff...

He only had 50.5 WAR, which is almost 10 wins worse than Sosa, so he ends up not belonging in that group. Lou Gehrig also finished with 493 HR, and he more than doubled McGriff in WAR.

HS team nickname: Redmen, College team nickname: Warriors, Amateur team nickname: Chiefs, Favorite MLB team: Braves. Holy political incorrectness...

by LeeTro on Jul 25, 2010 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions