BtB Power Rankings: Week 16 - Post All-Star Break Edition

The power rankings were on vacation last week, and have been trying to get caught up this week.  But at long last, they are ready to show their face once again!

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On Paper Playoff Rankings

American League: E=Rays*, C=Twins, W=Rangers, WC=Yankees
National League: E=Braves, C=Cardinals, W=Padres, WC=Rockies

This Week: The Rays overtake the Yankees

While they still trail by three games in reality, the Rays have overtaken the Yankees in the power rankings for the first time since very early in the season.  So how do they get to their lofty perch?  The 2010 Rays are an incredibly balanced team--essentially, they're good or great at everything.  

Offensively, their park-adjusted wOBA of .339 ranks fourth overall in baseball.  While they're well behind the Yankees (.352) and Red Sox (.347), they're still a powerful offensive club.  Their power isn't spectacular (.409 slugging ranks middle of the pack), but they get on base (.343 OBP) and they run the bases well (+9 EqBRR).  We estimate that they've scored 7 more runs than expected based on their component statistics, but this is still a good offensive team.  They could be better, of course, and if they acquire Jayson Werth without giving up any 25-man players, this could be a deadly team down the stretch (not that they aren't already).

What really sets them apart, however, is their pitching and fielding.  Their 4.17 xFIP ranks 3rd in the AL, and our composite fielding statistic rates them as the best fielding team in baseball (+31 runs; +23 UZR, +1 catching, +40 DRS, +27 BsRFIP fielding).  These things combine to give them the lowest expected runs allowed--and lowest park-adjusted runs allowed--in the American League.  Based on wins to date, and our component statistics-based winning percentage, we project them to win 99 games...which, ridiculously, would be just good enough to win the wild card.  

Under the Hood

Converting Runs to Wins

Team G RS eRS RA eRA W% pW% cW% xtW LgAdj TPI
ARI 96 409 409 509 451 0.385 0.397 0.453 67 -8 0.435
ATL 95 445 451 370 378 0.589 0.586 0.581 95 -8 0.563
BAL 95 345 376 511 503 0.316 0.323 0.367 55 8 0.383
BOS 96 495 511 434 446 0.563 0.563 0.564 91 8 0.581
CHW 94 412 403 379 401 0.553 0.538 0.502 86 8 0.520
CHC 96 393 401 428 405 0.448 0.461 0.496 76 -8 0.477
CIN 97 451 464 404 442 0.546 0.551 0.523 87 -8 0.506
CLE 95 403 408 470 467 0.421 0.427 0.437 69 8 0.454
COL 95 422 428 382 394 0.537 0.546 0.537 87 -8 0.519
DET 94 420 449 426 436 0.532 0.493 0.514 85 8 0.531
FLA 95 428 411 414 417 0.495 0.516 0.492 80 -8 0.474
HOU 95 343 312 480 447 0.411 0.349 0.339 62 -8 0.320
KCR 95 400 417 472 465 0.432 0.423 0.448 71 8 0.466
LAD 96 457 451 440 430 0.531 0.517 0.523 86 -8 0.505
LAA 98 454 414 469 469 0.520 0.484 0.441 79 8 0.459
MIL 97 463 496 525 489 0.454 0.439 0.507 77 -8 0.491
MIN 96 450 469 406 395 0.531 0.548 0.579 89 8 0.597
NYY 94 515 512 395 406 0.638 0.625 0.609 101 8 0.625
NYM 96 419 407 391 438 0.510 0.532 0.466 80 -8 0.448
OAK 95 409 409 395 398 0.505 0.516 0.512 82 8 0.531
PHI 95 424 403 398 396 0.516 0.530 0.507 83 -8 0.488
PIT 95 339 340 512 473 0.358 0.316 0.349 57 -8 0.332
SDP 94 449 422 363 349 0.585 0.598 0.587 95 -8 0.568
SEA 96 327 317 423 428 0.385 0.385 0.369 61 8 0.388
SFG 96 420 411 347 414 0.552 0.586 0.497 86 -8 0.479
STL 96 446 452 360 386 0.563 0.598 0.572 92 -8 0.554
TBR 94 491 484 378 379 0.606 0.621 0.614 99 8 0.631
TEX 96 484 482 394 432 0.583 0.596 0.552 92 8 0.569
TOR 96 442 434 428 411 0.500 0.515 0.525 83 8 0.544
WSN 96 390 405 438 436 0.438 0.447 0.465 73 -8 0.447

G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals.  If you don't like the league adjustment, click in the header and sort by this column to get an "unsullied" ranking.
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here, and modified most recently here).  The number shown is the number of runs credited to both the offense and defense of AL teams, as well as the number penalized to both the offenses and defenses of NL teams.  By season's end, each team's run differential will be altered by 28 runs.
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.

 

 

Team Offenses and Defenses

Team RS eRS wOBA OBP SLG wRC EqBRR Clutch RA eRA ERA FIP xFIP xFIPrns Field BABIP
ARI 409 409 0.321 0.328 0.419 418 -9 -29 509 451 5.25 4.86 4.51 446 -5 0.316
ATL 445 451 0.332 0.343 0.398 447 3 -1 370 378 3.61 3.88 4.04 394 16 0.292
BAL 345 376 0.313 0.317 0.385 379 -3 -6 511 503 5.07 4.77 4.81 469 -34 0.316
BOS 495 511 0.347 0.346 0.461 514 -3 -11 434 446 4.27 4.19 4.54 458 11 0.294
CHW 412 403 0.323 0.327 0.416 402 1 -10 379 401 3.94 3.71 4.10 396 -5 0.308
CHC 393 401 0.319 0.325 0.410 407 -6 -50 428 405 4.13 4.06 4.13 407 2 0.306
CIN 451 464 0.334 0.336 0.438 463 1 -22 404 442 4.18 4.35 4.54 460 18 0.294
CLE 403 408 0.321 0.325 0.384 407 1 -15 470 467 4.48 4.47 4.72 458 -9 0.307
COL 422 428 0.323 0.338 0.423 421 6 -11 382 394 4.03 3.85 4.10 403 9 0.299
DET 420 449 0.334 0.341 0.418 450 -1 14 426 436 4.33 4.12 4.56 441 5 0.304
FLA 428 411 0.321 0.322 0.394 407 4 -3 414 417 3.98 3.73 4.16 406 -12 0.310
HOU 343 312 0.294 0.296 0.350 308 4 41 480 447 4.53 3.93 4.23 410 -37 0.330
KCR 400 417 0.322 0.336 0.403 416 1 -8 472 465 4.88 4.61 4.63 452 -13 0.306
LAD 457 451 0.329 0.335 0.402 443 8 -8 440 430 4.09 3.83 4.10 407 -23 0.307
LAA 454 414 0.322 0.321 0.405 418 -4 7 469 469 4.46 4.26 4.41 443 -26 0.310
MIL 463 496 0.341 0.336 0.436 497 -1 -27 525 489 4.92 4.45 4.40 439 -49 0.329
MIN 450 469 0.338 0.346 0.420 469 0 -6 406 395 4.10 3.90 4.11 407 11 0.310
NYY 515 512 0.352 0.355 0.441 516 -4 17 395 406 3.96 4.18 4.24 410 4 0.288
NYM 419 407 0.319 0.317 0.392 402 5 -22 391 438 3.84 4.12 4.40 439 1 0.311
OAK 409 409 0.322 0.325 0.386 409 0 0 395 398 3.78 4.22 4.28 419 21 0.286
PHI 424 403 0.320 0.322 0.411 408 -5 16 398 396 4.07 4.29 4.15 406 9 0.293
PIT 339 340 0.305 0.307 0.368 344 -5 8 512 473 5.02 4.77 4.63 446 -28 0.311
SDP 449 422 0.325 0.323 0.378 420 2 -4 363 349 3.33 3.72 3.80 374 26 0.289
SEA 327 317 0.297 0.304 0.341 324 -7 15 423 428 3.94 4.08 4.43 441 13 0.295
SFG 420 411 0.321 0.326 0.404 413 -2 -1 347 414 3.38 3.85 4.33 434 20 0.292
STL 446 452 0.332 0.333 0.415 449 3 -16 360 386 3.26 3.86 4.06 405 19 0.296
TBR 491 484 0.339 0.343 0.409 476 9 -15 378 379 3.72 4.17 4.17 409 31 0.284
TEX 484 482 0.336 0.343 0.427 472 10 3 394 432 3.85 4.36 4.50 454 22 0.283
TOR 442 434 0.331 0.309 0.450 437 -3 10 428 411 4.20 3.98 4.19 414 3 0.303
WSN 390 405 0.322 0.328 0.400 411 -6 -25 438 436 4.20 4.14 4.46 437 1 0.309

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics.  We report this in runs.

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: xFIPRns - Field
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs.  Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average.  xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = Described in this post.  It is essentially an average of team UZR, DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately), and BsRFld.  BsRFld is just difference between FIP-based runs allowed and park-adjusted Base Runs, and is a less direct approach of measuring fielding.  The fielding number also includes a catcher fielding statistic, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference.  The catching methods are essentially those described here.  But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater accuracy.  If you want to know, feel free to ask!
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play.  Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although park effects and chance events can have effects as well.

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