Could Miguel Cabrera Win The Triple Crown?

by Satchel Price on Jul 21, 2010 1:00 PM EDT in History & Hall of Fame

It's a question that's being asked at a surprisingly small rate this season, given what Cabrera's been doing in Motown. Maybe it's a testament to the fact that people are becoming less focused on the big three stats they used to put on baseball cards, but I'm still surprised that a guy is getting so little pub with such a legitimate shot at a pretty rare feat.

Currently, Miguel Cabrera is second in the AL in home runs with 24, first in the AL in RBI with 82, and third in the AL in batting average with a .342 mark.

Right now, I think it's entirely in the realm of possibility that we'll be seeing the first Triple Crown since Carl Yastrzemski accomplished the feat with Boston in 1967. In the years preceding that season, the majors saw a total of 13 Triple Crowns, but we're in the midst of a 43-year drought.

Let's take a look at how ZiPS projects each AL leaderboard to look when the season concludes in October.

Home runs

1. Miguel Cabrera - 40

2. Jose Bautista - 36

3. Carlos Pena - 35

4. Josh Hamilton - 33

5. Paul Konerko - 33

Seems like Cabrera is a solid bet to end up with the most home runs in the AL.

RBI

1. Miguel Cabrera - 134

2. Vladimir Guerrero - 120

3. Alex Rodriguez - 118

4. Mark Teixeira - 110

5. Evan Longoria - 108

Looks like another solid bet in Cabrera's favor. That shouldn't be too surprising though, as Guerrero is currently the only AL player within 8 RBI of Cabrera's league-leading mark.

Batting average

1. Josh Hamilton - .341

2. Miguel Cabrera - .330

3. Justin Morneau - .326

4. Robinson Cano - .322

5. Adrian Beltre - .320

First off, where the hell is Ichiro Suzuki? (He's sixth, tied with almighty All-Star Omar Infante with a .319 BA)

Secondly, it becomes abundantly clear that batting average will be the statistic where Cabrera finds the most competition. He's already behind Hamilton by 15 points and Morneau by 3, while Beltre and Cano have outside shots at each is hitting .333 or better.

But while Cabrera is certainly going to get a fight from Hamilton and Morneau, among others, I think there's a very realistic chance that we're witnessing the first Triple Crown in 43 years.

Take that, Year of the Pitcher.

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Comments

love the final conclusion.

"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial

by Shi on Jul 21, 2010 1:10 PM EDT reply actions

No.

Because Josh Hamilton is winning it.

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by philkid3 on Jul 21, 2010 1:20 PM EDT reply actions

That's what I was thinking.

Isn’t a 7 HR deficit easier to make up than an 11 pt BA deficit? (Assuming Hamilton’s RBI come around with the extra power)

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by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 21, 2010 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions

"Take that, year of the pitcher"

winning a triple crown has nothing to do with batting being better than pitching
its an award based on the best batter compared to other batters, year of the pitcher is irrelevant

by Eugene Brown on Jul 22, 2010 2:07 AM EDT reply actions

I assume it was meant in jest.

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by philkid3 on Jul 22, 2010 2:55 AM EDT up reply actions

You know, I thought exactly the same thing.

But I’m pretty sure Satch knows that.

“But Satch, it’s all relative”, we cry. Thanks for a neat article.

I hope he wins it, and they lose the division to the Twins.

Go Twins!

by Patrick42 on Jul 22, 2010 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I was just excited to write an article about a hitter doing something special

It seems like the vast majority of brilliant performances so far this season have come from pitchers, and much of the attention has been focused in that direction.

I mean, when you’re listing accomplishments from a supposed Year of the Pitcher, would “Miguel Cabrera won the AL Triple Crown for the first time in 43 years” really fit into what you’re doing?

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by Satchel Price on Jul 22, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

It would be awesome if Cabrera won it

However, I don’t think he’ll catch up in batting average.

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by Chris McKeown on Jul 22, 2010 11:07 AM EDT reply actions

I think he has a shot, as I think it’s a bit optimistic to think Hamilton sustains a .393 BABIP, or even the nearly .350 BABIP that Zips grants him in the projection. Miguel, on the other hand, is very near his career average right now.

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by Bettman's Nightmare on Jul 22, 2010 11:22 AM EDT reply actions

Hamilton always has a high batting average.

I also expect Miggy to at least make it really close.

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by Yankee_Country on Jul 22, 2010 12:15 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, but his .393 BABIP is way higher than his .340 career mark

And I don’t think it’s crazy to believe that Cabrera can bat .340 on the season.

I don’t think it’s particularly likely to happen, but it’s been a while since somebody’s had such a good shot.

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by Satchel Price on Jul 22, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmmm... would would a saber-friendly triple crown be?

wOBA, UZR, & WAR?

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by adarowski on Jul 22, 2010 1:11 PM EDT reply actions

saber triple crown

basement, beer, badass laptop

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by t ball on Jul 22, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

1967: Year of the Pitcher

The last time there was a triple crown winner in the AL was another Year of the Pitcher. Consider.

BA: Yaz .326 (No one else was over .311, only 3 others were over .300, 5 over .290)

HR Yaz 44 (tied with Killebrew) No one else over 36.

RBI Yaz 121 Only Killer (113) was over 100.

Conclusion: it’s easier to win the crown when pitchers dominate because you have fewer rivals trying to take away one category. Aside from Harmon K., Yaz had no worries.

by fjm235 on Jul 22, 2010 2:38 PM EDT reply actions

That's a really good point

I suppose you could argue that you’re less likely to see something like Freddy Sanchez winning the batting title by hitting .345 when the entire league’s scoring is down.

Although to be fair, you can also argue that people are actually somewhat underrating Yaz’s 1967, because not only did he accomplish the Triple Crown, but he did it with strong numbers while the entire league was struggling to score runs.

According to Rally, Yaz was worth slightly over 12 wins in 1967. He didn’t just stumble his way into that Triple Crown because the entire league sucked at hitting and he didn’t.

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I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jul 22, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with you.

He had an amazing season. According to baseball reference Yaz ’67 is tied with some guy named Bonds (2002 version) for 10th all-time in WAR. The Top 9 are Ruth (4 times), Mantle (twice), Bonds (twice) and Hornsby (once). Only Ruth (twice) beat Yaz by more than one full win.

by fjm235 on Jul 22, 2010 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions

It seems as though your stats are updated, but your writeup isnt. I get the picture though. It is a definite possibility.

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by GrahamCrakalaka on Jul 25, 2010 10:20 PM EDT reply actions