BtB Power Rankings: Week 10

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Allrank-060910_medium

"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (based on rankings above)

American League: E=Yankees, C=Twins, W=Rangers, WC=Rays
National League: E=Braves, C=Cardinals, W=Padres, WC=Reds

 

This Week's Feature: The Oakland Athletics

The A's surged a bit in the rankings this week, up five places and 26 points.  They posted an 0.836 team OPS over the past week to go with a 4.02 ERA and a 0.711 OPS allowed, much of which seems to have manifested in the 10-1 drubbing they put on the Angels last night.  The AL West has seemed surprisingly weak this year thanks to the struggles of the Angels and the Mariners, and as I write this the A's are a game back in the west and only 14 points behind the Rangers in these power rankings.

Offensively, the A's haven't been very good, ranking ahead of only four teams in the American League according to our park-adusted wOBA.  They don't get on base particularly often (0.324 OBP), don't hit for a ton of power (0.387 SLG), and don't even run the bases particularly well (-3 EqBRR).  Fielding-wise, they rate right about average: +3 runs.  The replacement of Eric Chavez with Jack Cust, and the return of Coco Crisp and Mark Ellis should help the position player value a bit.

If the A's have a strength, however, it's their pitching: they rank 6th in the AL in xFIP.  The losses of Brett Anderson and Justin Duchscherer have hurt badly, but they still have a serviceable staff including Dallas Braden (4.08 xFIP), Gio Gonzalez (4.25 xFIP), and Trevor Cahill (4.49 xFIP).  And while Henry Rodriguez has been unquestionably awful, Vin Mazzaro has decent rest-of-season projections and could be a solid #4 until Anderson returns.

Overall, the A's aren't a very inspiring team.  But it might not take an inspiring team to win this division, especially if they luck into a few extra wins here and there.  I certainly still favor the Rangers or Angels to take the NL West, but the A's could make those other two teams sweat a bit this season.

 

Converting Runs to Wins

Team G RS eRS RA eRA W% pW% cW% xtW LgAdj TPI
ARI 59 266 255 326 258 0.390 0.402 0.493 74 -7 0.465
ATL 59 292 290 237 247 0.576 0.596 0.574 93 -7 0.549
BAL 58 193 204 305 300 0.276 0.300 0.329 50 7 0.354
BOS 60 312 323 269 280 0.583 0.570 0.568 93 7 0.591
CHW 57 230 224 278 256 0.421 0.413 0.438 70 7 0.466
CHC 58 233 242 245 227 0.448 0.476 0.529 81 -7 0.501
CIN 59 284 301 263 269 0.559 0.537 0.554 90 -7 0.529
CLE 57 230 227 298 296 0.368 0.379 0.377 61 7 0.402
COL 58 249 252 210 254 0.517 0.576 0.495 82 -7 0.469
DET 57 251 274 245 258 0.526 0.513 0.529 86 7 0.553
FLA 59 272 268 259 263 0.475 0.523 0.508 80 -7 0.482
HOU 59 195 172 291 264 0.390 0.325 0.314 55 -7 0.287
KCR 59 249 257 285 305 0.407 0.435 0.420 67 7 0.445
LAD 59 289 282 275 284 0.593 0.523 0.496 86 -7 0.471
LAA 61 288 260 301 296 0.525 0.479 0.437 76 8 0.463
MIL 58 284 301 329 305 0.414 0.427 0.493 75 -7 0.470
MIN 58 274 286 223 233 0.586 0.594 0.593 96 7 0.618
NYY 58 329 338 237 236 0.621 0.652 0.666 105 7 0.688
NYM 58 264 263 242 265 0.534 0.541 0.498 83 -7 0.472
OAK 60 251 253 258 260 0.517 0.487 0.489 81 7 0.516
PHI 57 255 248 219 233 0.544 0.569 0.528 86 -7 0.501
PIT 58 191 199 328 297 0.397 0.266 0.321 56 -7 0.296
SDP 58 267 256 209 200 0.586 0.611 0.609 97 -7 0.581
SEA 58 212 209 255 256 0.397 0.417 0.408 65 7 0.436
SFG 57 239 248 198 230 0.561 0.584 0.534 88 -7 0.507
STL 59 273 282 220 228 0.559 0.599 0.597 94 -7 0.571
TBR 58 308 289 209 226 0.655 0.674 0.613 102 7 0.638
TEX 58 278 270 261 267 0.534 0.531 0.505 83 7 0.530
TOR 59 295 276 255 259 0.559 0.569 0.530 88 7 0.556
WSN 59 253 256 270 273 0.475 0.470 0.469 76 -7 0.443

G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals.  If you don't like the league adjustment, click in the header and sort by this column.
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here).
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.

 

Team Offenses and Defenses

Team RS eRS wOBA OBP SLG wRC EqBRR Clutch RA eRA ERA FIP xFIP xFIPrns Field Catch BABIP
ARI 266 255 0.324 0.326 0.424 258 -4 -2 326 258 5.50 5.06 4.45 269 12 -4 0.321
ATL 292 290 0.336 0.352 0.394 287 3 -4 237 247 3.81 3.91 4.10 245 6 1 0.293
BAL 193 204 0.303 0.309 0.364 206 -2 -7 305 300 4.90 4.91 4.80 282 -24 0 0.314
BOS 312 323 0.351 0.350 0.461 327 -4 -5 269 280 4.25 4.37 4.59 290 3 0 0.287
CHW 230 224 0.316 0.319 0.397 227 -3 1 278 256 4.85 4.02 4.20 245 -9 -2 0.322
CHC 233 242 0.320 0.328 0.404 246 -4 -32 245 227 4.05 3.91 4.00 234 -4 3 0.301
CIN 284 301 0.343 0.345 0.453 296 5 1 263 269 4.46 4.19 4.37 266 -5 -2 0.316
CLE 230 227 0.313 0.321 0.364 227 0 -1 298 296 4.72 4.76 4.90 285 -1 -1 0.310
COL 249 252 0.319 0.335 0.414 247 4 -27 210 254 3.63 3.66 4.12 246 3 -1 0.298
DET 251 274 0.337 0.342 0.421 275 -1 12 245 258 4.05 4.00 4.55 264 5 -2 0.299
FLA 272 268 0.326 0.327 0.402 262 6 -16 259 263 4.07 3.85 4.34 261 -6 1 0.306
HOU 195 172 0.287 0.291 0.340 173 -1 25 291 264 4.48 3.93 4.17 250 -13 1 0.330
KCR 249 257 0.325 0.335 0.408 257 0 -7 285 305 4.76 4.53 4.67 283 -36 0 0.309
LAD 289 282 0.332 0.335 0.408 275 6 13 275 284 3.96 3.86 4.21 259 -23 0 0.300
LAA 288 260 0.324 0.319 0.409 262 -2 8 301 296 4.53 4.37 4.46 277 -15 -2 0.316
MIL 284 301 0.343 0.337 0.433 301 0 -19 329 305 5.25 4.41 4.52 270 -42 -1 0.344
MIN 274 286 0.339 0.347 0.414 287 -1 -14 223 233 3.73 3.66 4.11 246 4 3 0.308
NYY 329 338 0.361 0.365 0.448 336 2 -4 237 236 3.86 4.23 4.20 247 16 1 0.282
NYM 264 263 0.326 0.327 0.396 258 5 -14 242 265 3.87 4.19 4.47 270 -3 1 0.309
OAK 251 253 0.323 0.324 0.387 256 -3 6 258 260 3.96 4.18 4.30 265 3 1 0.287
PHI 255 248 0.326 0.333 0.414 254 -6 3 219 233 3.72 4.13 4.21 245 14 3 0.289
PIT 191 199 0.303 0.305 0.363 204 -5 15 328 297 5.26 4.76 4.68 276 -22 -1 0.320
SDP 267 256 0.323 0.322 0.366 255 1 -19 209 200 3.03 3.56 3.74 229 25 3 0.280
SEA 212 209 0.305 0.314 0.347 210 -1 10 255 256 3.95 4.09 4.49 268 19 -1 0.291
SFG 239 248 0.322 0.328 0.399 245 3 3 198 230 3.25 3.78 4.34 259 31 -1 0.270
STL 273 282 0.335 0.340 0.411 285 -2 -17 220 228 3.10 3.62 3.91 241 15 3 0.289
TBR 308 289 0.336 0.337 0.411 284 5 4 209 226 3.26 4.06 4.15 251 32 0 0.276
TEX 278 270 0.328 0.336 0.414 263 7 9 261 267 4.20 4.53 4.57 276 6 0 0.292
TOR 295 276 0.336 0.309 0.465 278 -2 19 255 259 4.17 3.70 4.06 248 -1 -3 0.302
WSN 253 256 0.327 0.334 0.408 262 -6 -2 270 273 4.13 4.49 4.63 280 0 2 0.297

 

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics.  We report this in runs.

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: tRuns - Field - Catch
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs.  Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average.  xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = The average of team UZR and team DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately).
Catch = Catcher Fielding Runs, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference.  The methods are essentially those described here.  But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater precision.
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play.  Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although chance events can have effects as well.

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