BtB Power Rankings: Week 9

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Allrank-060310_medium

"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (based on rankings above)

American League: E=Yankees, C=Twins, W=Rangers, WC=Rays
National League: E=Braves*, C=Cardinals, W=Padres, WC=Reds*

This Week's Feature: The Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are currently in a tie for first in the NL Central.  And, while they lag behind the Cardinals, today is the first time in power ranking history that the Reds have made the "on paper" playoff rankings.  May was a great month for the Reds, and this past week added to it.  They went 5-3 since our last update, and won three of their games in blowout fashion against the Pirates and Astros.  While the power rankings don't know about the runs and wins, the gaudy component statistics they posted pushed up their ranking by 21 points and three spots.  

What has contributed to the Reds' success thus far?  The biggest surprise has been the offense.  Prior to 2009, the Reds made a conscious decision to focus on defense, almost without concern to what their offensive output would be.  As a result, the Reds were an outstanding fielding team last year...but the offense was a disaster.  This year didn't look to be a whole lot better, but right now, after park corrections, the Reds rank as the 2nd-best offense in National League with a 0.345 wOBA behind only Milwaukee.  They rank 2nd in OBP, 1st in SLG, and are tied for third in EqBRR with +4 runs.  Joey Votto has led the attack (.427 wOBA), but is joined by outstanding performances by injured C Ryan Hanigan (.426), a resurgent Scott Rolen (.394), Jonny Gomes (.376), Ramon Hernandez (.367), Jay Bruce (.361), and Brandon Philips (.352).  That's a lot of hitters that are (aside from Bruce, perhaps) substantially over-shooting their projections.  But it sure has been fun to watch.

In contrast, fielding-wise, they rank as only average (+1 by UZR/DRS, -2 on catchers, so -1 run overall).  A big part of what is pulling down the team fielding is starting LF Jonny Gomes, who is roughly a -5 run fielder by both UZR and DRS--right about where you'd expect him to be at this point in the season.  His offense, and the injury to Chris Dickerson, keeps him in the lineup, however.

While the offense seems likely to regress moving forward, the pitching has actually been a bit disappointing.  They rank 12th in FIP (4.27) and xFIP (4.36), despite what should be an impressive rotation given the surprising performance of rookie Mike Leake.  That said, their ERA stands a big high at 4.60, indicating that the team may have been a bit unlucky (.311 BABIP, though some of that may be park effects).  Aaron Harang, in particular, seems likely to improve (3.84 xFIP, 5.48 ERA, .338 BABIP) as we look ahead, and an effective Harang could go a long way toward keeping the Reds in the wild card hunt over the remainder of the season.

It's been a great first two months to be a Reds fan.  Here's hoping that they can keep at least some of this up over the remaining two thirds of the season.

 

Converting Runs to Wins

Team G RS eRS RA eRA W% pW% cW% xtW LgAdj TPI
ARI 54 242 230 305 232 0.370 0.391 0.496 74 -7 0.468
ATL 53 260 252 209 223 0.585 0.600 0.557 92 -7 0.531
BAL 53 177 191 265 271 0.283 0.323 0.345 53 7 0.369
BOS 54 276 283 251 252 0.574 0.544 0.555 91 7 0.579
CHW 52 215 207 249 232 0.423 0.432 0.447 71 6 0.474
CHC 53 213 222 228 212 0.453 0.470 0.519 81 -7 0.491
CIN 54 267 280 245 242 0.574 0.541 0.568 92 -7 0.544
CLE 51 200 201 268 261 0.373 0.365 0.378 61 6 0.403
COL 53 231 232 194 235 0.528 0.579 0.494 82 -7 0.468
DET 52 224 245 221 234 0.519 0.506 0.521 84 6 0.546
FLA 54 251 242 229 233 0.500 0.541 0.517 83 -7 0.491
HOU 53 170 148 267 237 0.358 0.304 0.298 52 -7 0.271
KCR 54 226 239 265 284 0.407 0.426 0.420 67 7 0.444
LAD 53 259 251 249 258 0.585 0.517 0.487 84 -7 0.462
LAA 55 251 226 278 267 0.491 0.451 0.421 72 7 0.448
MIL 53 271 290 308 281 0.415 0.436 0.515 78 -7 0.492
MIN 53 253 270 204 217 0.585 0.599 0.600 96 7 0.625
NYY 53 304 313 215 214 0.623 0.661 0.674 106 7 0.696
NYM 54 245 243 231 250 0.500 0.528 0.487 80 -7 0.461
OAK 54 217 220 232 239 0.519 0.471 0.463 78 7 0.489
PHI 52 231 229 199 212 0.538 0.568 0.536 87 -6 0.509
PIT 53 173 184 302 268 0.415 0.260 0.330 58 -7 0.305
SDP 53 252 240 190 185 0.604 0.626 0.618 99 -7 0.591
SEA 52 196 185 217 222 0.404 0.453 0.420 67 6 0.449
SFG 52 215 220 178 209 0.538 0.584 0.523 86 -6 0.496
STL 54 253 261 198 209 0.574 0.610 0.602 96 -7 0.576
TBR 54 283 270 189 223 0.667 0.680 0.587 99 7 0.612
TEX 52 247 243 236 242 0.538 0.521 0.502 83 6 0.527
TOR 55 283 266 239 239 0.564 0.580 0.551 90 7 0.577
WSN 54 236 232 250 253 0.481 0.471 0.459 76 -7 0.433

G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals.  If you don't like the league adjustment, click in the header and sort by this column.
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here).
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.

Team Offenses and Defenses

Team RS eRS wOBA OBP SLG wRC EqBRR Clutch RA eRA ERA FIP xFIP xFIPrns Field Catch BABIP
ARI 242 230 0.322 0.325 0.422 235 -5 -4 305 232 5.64 5.13 4.43 245 16 -3 0.319
ATL 260 252 0.333 0.348 0.392 249 3 2 209 223 3.76 3.94 4.14 223 9 0 0.290
BAL 177 191 0.304 0.310 0.370 191 0 -5 265 271 4.69 4.78 4.76 254 -20 1 0.310
BOS 276 283 0.347 0.346 0.454 284 -2 2 251 252 4.42 4.34 4.53 258 0 0 0.293
CHW 215 207 0.316 0.318 0.398 210 -3 -1 249 232 4.75 4.05 4.20 224 -7 -2 0.315
CHC 213 222 0.321 0.327 0.405 226 -4 -31 228 212 4.11 3.92 3.99 214 -6 2 0.303
CIN 267 280 0.345 0.346 0.458 276 4 5 245 242 4.60 4.27 4.36 244 1 -2 0.311
CLE 200 201 0.312 0.322 0.360 201 0 5 268 261 4.76 4.74 4.80 250 -5 -1 0.310
COL 231 232 0.319 0.334 0.415 228 4 -25 194 235 3.64 3.68 4.13 227 2 -2 0.295
DET 224 245 0.335 0.340 0.413 247 -2 12 221 234 4.02 4.01 4.49 238 -1 -2 0.298
FLA 251 242 0.324 0.326 0.398 236 6 -14 229 233 3.89 3.76 4.23 235 -3 1 0.301
HOU 170 148 0.281 0.287 0.331 147 1 21 267 237 4.52 4.00 4.15 224 -13 0 0.330
KCR 226 239 0.326 0.335 0.411 241 -1 -5 265 284 4.81 4.65 4.80 267 -30 1 0.304
LAD 259 251 0.330 0.332 0.406 245 6 16 249 258 3.99 3.79 4.17 230 -28 -1 0.302
LAA 251 226 0.320 0.315 0.403 227 -1 9 278 267 4.61 4.45 4.50 253 -8 -1 0.312
MIL 271 290 0.350 0.343 0.446 291 -1 -24 308 281 5.36 4.48 4.57 250 -38 -1 0.344
MIN 253 270 0.344 0.353 0.422 273 -3 -18 204 217 3.76 3.69 4.09 225 0 2 0.309
NYY 304 313 0.363 0.367 0.453 311 2 -3 215 214 3.84 4.15 4.20 224 16 1 0.285
NYM 245 243 0.324 0.325 0.391 237 6 -15 231 250 3.97 4.26 4.49 252 -5 1 0.312
OAK 217 220 0.318 0.321 0.375 221 -2 10 232 239 3.95 4.24 4.37 242 3 0 0.286
PHI 231 229 0.327 0.331 0.417 233 -4 1 199 212 3.71 4.10 4.23 224 19 3 0.287
PIT 173 184 0.303 0.308 0.358 189 -5 15 302 268 5.30 4.73 4.64 250 -23 -1 0.322
SDP 252 240 0.325 0.327 0.365 238 2 -15 190 185 3.01 3.55 3.73 210 26 2 0.278
SEA 196 185 0.304 0.313 0.348 188 -2 7 217 222 3.72 4.07 4.40 236 21 -1 0.286
SFG 215 220 0.319 0.325 0.395 217 3 2 178 209 3.25 3.75 4.28 234 32 -1 0.268
STL 253 261 0.336 0.343 0.413 265 -4 -10 198 209 3.03 3.63 3.90 220 13 2 0.288
TBR 283 270 0.335 0.336 0.410 262 8 5 189 223 3.17 4.04 4.20 238 25 0 0.274
TEX 247 243 0.329 0.336 0.412 237 6 6 236 242 4.28 4.53 4.62 251 6 0 0.293
TOR 283 266 0.341 0.312 0.474 268 -2 23 239 239 4.21 3.71 4.06 230 -5 -3 0.304
WSN 236 232 0.326 0.333 0.407 240 -7 -4 250 253 4.28 4.59 4.74 263 7 2 0.293

 

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics.  We report this in runs.

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: tRuns - Field - Catch
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs.  Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average.  xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = The average of team UZR and team DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately).
Catch = Catcher Fielding Runs, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference.  The methods are essentially those described here.  But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater precision.
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play.  Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although chance events can have effects as well.

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