BtB 2010 Catcher Defense Rankings: June 29

by Matt Klaassen on Jun 29, 2010 10:59 AM EDT in Positional Reviews

[Update, June 30, 2010, 1:03 A.M. EST: Thanks to Justin and Mike in the comments, I realized that I had a problem in my spreadsheet, in short -- the league averages weren't updating properly. I've basically fixed it now. The difference was usually only a few tenths of a run per player, so there weren't too many changes to the overall rankings, although Matt Wieters fans will be happy. It was a dumb thing, but I'm glad it got caught. Sorry that I'm still a moron. -- Matt]

I know the last month or so has been difficult for our millions of readers who anxiously awaited these updated catcher defense rankings with baited breath. I won't bore you with the methodological details, alternate accounts of catcher defense, and myriad qualifications. For those (and links to more), check May's rankings, I recommend taking a look at that before commencing with complaining. I'll hopefully being making some modifications to how errors are handled in the future, but for now they stay the same as in the past. Keep at least two things in mind when looking over these: (1) this is an admittedly simple method for getting a handle on measuring something very complicated, and is thus even further from perfection than other defensive stats; (2) there is a difference between observed performance and true talent.

Players are ranked by linear weights runs saved above (or below) average in four categories. fielding errors (FE), throwing errors (TE), passed balls and wild pitches allowed (PBWP), and caught stealing (CS).

Overall Leaders: As alwaysI readily admit that this method is far from perfect, but the leaders and trailers in the overall ranking and individual categories (at least as far as pitch blocking and basestealing are concerned) usually conform well enough to our expectations that I think these rankings get at reality. Yadier Molina's continued presence at the top of the overall rankings at 6.8 runs above average is a good example of this; he ranks at the top for pitch blocking (passed balls and wild pitches) and very close the top for throwing runners out. A bit more surprising, given his age, is Ivan Rodriguez at the #2 spot (+4.5 runs). While Pudge has long had a good defensive reputation, his defense has fallen off over the years, although not this season so far. As mentioned above, my update found that Matt Wieters is actually #3 at +3.8 runs.In a surprise, Miguel Olivo's (#4) ability to gun down runners has so far more than balanced out his inability to block pitches.

Overall Trailers: Jack Moore mancrush George Kottaras might walk a great deal, but in limited playing time so far this season he hasn't really controlled the running game, either, coming in at #86 overall. #88 Mike Napoli, is an "impressive" -5.1 runs in catcher defense despite playing a fair bit of first base -- although I'm sure just about every team would take his bat behind the plate, especially given that Jeff Mathis isn't exactly a whiz back there, either (#76 at -1.3 runs in only 672 defensive PA). John Hester of Arizona has managed to be -5.5 runs in a heroic 528 plate appearances. I'd say that was "par for the course of Arizona's season," except I really should save it for Pittsburgh's Ryan Doumit, who brings up the rear (#90) at -6.8 runs. Remember that good season he had that one time?

Pitch Blocking (WP/PB) Leaders and Trailers: As mentioned, Yadier Molina leads the rankings at +3,3 runs, with Matt 'Deadly Accurate' Wieters (badly misrepresented by my previously broken spreadhsset) and Joe Mauer following closely at +2.5 each. It's worth noting that Joe Mauer is good defensively, but he's going to have to be better than this if he's only going to have a .350 wOBA -- he is one of the few catchers for whom that kind of offensive production is disappointing. At the bottom of the back we have poor Jon Hester at -3.8 runs, Bengie Molina shows why Buster Posey is playing first at -2.8 runs, and Mike Napoli and Rob "I Can't Believe I'm in the Majors" Johnson come in at -2.5 runs each.

Caught Stealing (CS) Leaders and Trailers: Some changes in order occurred with the corrections. The rocket-armed, gloveless, and strike-zone-clueless Miguel Olivo's good year with the bat so far is matched by his ability to gun runners down at 5.1 runs above average, the best in the majors. Toronto's Jose Molina is second at +4.1 runs in limited time. Yadier Molina is third at +3.7 runs. Your limped-armed wonders so far? George Kottaras at -3.6(sorry Jack), Victor Martinez at -3.9 (Varitek's mentoring paying off!), and... wait for it... Ryan Doumit at -6.3. Taking shots at the Pirates is just depressing, so I won't.

Commentary Free Bonus: Miguel Olivo +3.7, John Buck -0.8, Jason Kendall -1.7

The complete (corrected) rankings are after the jump.

Rank	Player	Tm	PA	FERuns	TERuns	PBWPRns	CSRuns	Total
1	Yadier Molina	STL	2358	0.0	-0.2	3.3	3.7	6.8
2	Ivan Rodriguez	WSN	1729	0.6	0.4	1.7	1.8	4.5
3	Matt Wieters	BAL	2375	0.8	-0.2	2.5	0.7	3.8
4	Miguel Olivo	COL	1977	0.6	-0.4	-2.0	5.4	3.7
5	Jose Molina	TOR	753	0.2	0.4	-1.1	4.1	3.6
6	Humberto Quintero	HOU	1555	-1.0	0.4	1.8	2.3	3.5
7	Henry Blanco	NYM	837	0.3	0.4	0.2	2.2	3.2
8	Lou Marson	CLE	1696	0.6	0.4	-0.9	3.0	3.1
9	Carlos Ruiz	PHI	1780	-0.2	1.0	2.4	-0.4	2.8
10	Joe Mauer	MIN	2083	0.7	-0.3	2.5	-0.3	2.5
11	Brian McCann	ATL	2128	-0.8	-0.8	2.1	2.1	2.5
12	Ramon Hernandez	CIN	1808	0.6	1.0	-1.4	2.0	2.2
13	Carlos Santana	CLE	535	0.2	0.3	-0.1	1.6	1.9
14	Jason Varitek	BOS	927	0.3	0.5	1.6	-0.6	1.8
15	Yorvit Torrealba	SDP	1223	-0.4	0.2	1.1	0.9	1.8
16	David Ross	ATL	727	0.2	-0.1	-0.4	1.9	1.7
17	Matt Treanor	TEX	1724	-0.2	0.4	1.4	-0.1	1.6
18	Drew Butera	MIN	495	0.2	-0.2	0.3	1.2	1.5
19	Nick Hundley	SDP	1630	-0.2	-0.1	1.4	0.1	1.2
20	Ryan Hanigan	CIN	860	0.3	-1.0	0.3	1.6	1.2
21	Koyie Hill	CHC	843	0.3	0.5	1.4	-1.0	1.1
22	Carlos Maldonado	WSN	116	0.0	0.1	0.1	1.0	1.1
23	Jason LaRue	STL	471	0.2	0.3	0.0	0.5	0.9
24	Jason Castro	HOU	229	0.1	0.1	-0.4	1.2	0.9
25	Wil Nieves	WSN	1126	0.4	-0.8	1.6	-0.3	0.8
26	Buster Posey	SFG	74	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.5	0.8
27	Gerald Laird	DET	1557	0.5	-0.1	0.1	0.4	0.8
28	Jake Fox	OAK	251	-0.7	0.1	0.7	0.5	0.7
29	Ramon Castro	CHW	388	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.7
30	Dioner Navarro	TBR	1123	0.4	-0.8	0.5	0.5	0.6
31	J.R. Towles	HOU	509	0.2	-0.2	0.4	0.3	0.6
32	Craig Tatum	BAL	538	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.6
33	Jason Jaramillo	PIT	747	-0.5	-0.1	0.2	0.8	0.5
34	Alex Avila	DET	1266	-0.3	0.2	-1.6	2.2	0.5
35	Ronny Paulino	FLA	1935	-0.9	-0.4	0.6	1.0	0.4
36	Corky Miller	CIN	328	0.1	0.2	0.4	-0.4	0.3
37	Brian Schneider	PHI	696	0.2	-0.1	0.4	-0.2	0.3
38	Brad Ausmus	LAD	40	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.2
39	Wilson Ramos	MIN	258	0.1	0.1	0.5	-0.6	0.1
40	Paul Hoover	PHI	220	0.1	-0.4	0.1	0.3	0.1
41	Josh Donaldson	OAK	203	0.1	-0.4	0.0	0.4	0.1
42	Landon Powell	OAK	591	-0.6	-0.6	0.9	0.3	0.0
43	Josh Thole	NYM	32	0.0	0.0	0.1	-0.1	0.0
44	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	TEX	37	0.0	0.0	0.1	-0.1	0.0
45	Jamie Burke	WSN	7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
46	Nick Stavinoha	STL	2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
47	Kurt Suzuki	OAK	1836	0.6	-0.5	0.6	-0.9	-0.1
48	Dane Sardinha	PHI	78	0.0	0.0	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1
49	Kelly Shoppach	TBR	351	0.1	0.2	-0.1	-0.3	-0.1
50	Taylor Teagarden	TEX	369	0.1	-0.3	-0.3	0.4	-0.1
51	Jake Fox	BAL	6	0.0	0.0	-0.5	0.3	-0.2
52	Bobby Wilson	LAA	423	0.1	0.2	0.7	-1.3	-0.3
53	Eliezer Alfonzo	SEA	402	-1.4	0.2	0.6	0.2	-0.3
54	Brett Hayes	FLA	219	0.1	0.1	0.1	-0.5	-0.3
55	Bryan Anderson	STL	46	0.0	0.0	-0.1	-0.3	-0.4
56	Rob Johnson	SEA	1531	0.5	-0.1	-2.5	1.7	-0.4
57	John Baker	FLA	752	0.2	-0.6	0.5	-0.8	-0.5
58	Paul Phillips	COL	172	0.1	-0.4	-0.1	-0.1	-0.5
59	Donny Lucy	CHW	190	0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.7	-0.6
60	Ryan Budde	LAA	121	0.0	0.1	-0.5	-0.2	-0.6
61	Jonathan Lucroy	MIL	601	-0.6	0.3	-1.3	0.8	-0.7
62	John Jaso	TBR	1333	-1.1	0.2	-0.3	0.4	-0.8
63	Chad Moeller	NYY	123	0.0	0.1	-0.5	-0.4	-0.8
64	John Buck	TOR	2161	0.7	0.7	-0.9	-1.3	-0.8
65	Geovany Soto	CHC	2042	-0.1	0.1	1.0	-2.0	-1.0
66	Francisco Cervelli	NYY	1625	0.5	-0.1	0.9	-2.3	-1.0
67	Josh Bard	SEA	265	-0.7	0.1	-0.1	-0.4	-1.0
68	A.J. Ellis	LAD	425	0.1	-0.3	-0.4	-0.5	-1.0
69	A.J. Pierzynski	CHW	2271	0.0	1.2	-0.6	-1.6	-1.0
70	Miguel Montero	ARI	499	0.2	0.3	-1.3	-0.1	-1.0
71	Kevin Cash	HOU	705	0.2	0.4	-1.0	-0.7	-1.1
72	Rod Barajas	NYM	2080	-1.6	1.1	1.1	-1.8	-1.2
73	Gregg Zaun	MIL	1095	-0.4	0.1	-0.1	-0.8	-1.2
74	Russell Martin	LAD	2474	0.1	-1.6	-0.9	1.2	-1.2
75	Jeff Mathis	LAA	672	0.2	-0.1	-0.8	-0.5	-1.3
76	Chris Snyder	ARI	2002	0.7	0.6	-1.1	-1.4	-1.3
77	Eli Whiteside	SFG	865	0.3	0.5	-1.9	-0.1	-1.3
78	Brayan Pena	KCR	286	-0.7	0.2	-0.3	-0.7	-1.5
79	Jason Kendall	KCR	2692	-0.6	-1.9	1.2	-0.4	-1.7
80	Max Ramirez	TEX	751	0.2	-0.6	-0.9	-0.8	-2.0
81	Mike Redmond	CLE	672	0.2	-0.1	0.3	-2.7	-2.3
82	Bengie Molina	SFG	1902	0.6	0.5	-2.8	-0.7	-2.4
83	Adam Moore	SEA	641	-1.3	0.3	-1.5	-0.5	-3.0
84	Jorge Posada	NYY	1021	0.3	-0.4	-1.2	-1.8	-3.1
85	Chris Iannetta	COL	720	-0.5	-0.6	-1.0	-1.2	-3.3
86	Victor Martinez	BOS	2066	0.7	0.1	-0.4	-3.9	-3.4
87	George Kottaras	MIL	1338	-0.3	-0.7	0.0	-3.6	-4.6
88	Mike Napoli	LAA	1820	-0.9	-0.5	-2.5	-1.3	-5.1
89	John Hester	ARI	528	0.2	0.3	-3.8	-2.2	-5.5
90	Ryan Doumit	PIT	2244	0.0	0.2	-0.7	-6.3	-6.8

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The Mets really should have paid Bengie Molina!

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by JD Sussman on Jun 29, 2010 12:30 PM EDT reply actions

It's gotta be exciting to see Carlos Santana that high

Because if he proves to be more than just an adequate defender at catcher, he’s going to be a monster.

Heh, Casey Blake..

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by Satchel Price on Jun 29, 2010 12:57 PM EDT reply actions

CSRns

Does the CS metric account for respect shown by base runners? By that, I mean have you considered the amount of times elite catchers are run against compared to poor ones? Awesome job, btw.

"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial

by Shi on Jun 29, 2010 2:41 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks

I don’t think that’s actually much of a problem — if a catcher is great at throwing runners out, it is to the benefit of his team if the opponents run on him more often if he guns down runners beyond the “break even” point. In no one ever ran on Yadier, he’d be a less valuable than he is now.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 29, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Discussion on "respect runs"

There’s a good amount in this thread
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/catcher_defense1/

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by stevesommer05 on Jun 29, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

hmmm

I missed this post. Erik and I had discussed some stuff by email in the offseason. I guess it’s one more thing to do.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 29, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions

That's an interesting issue...

The catcher with the perfect arm and zero steal attempts IS worth less than someone with lots of steal attempts and a better than break-even SB%. But surely we don’t think the “perfect arm” catcher is a worse player, do we? No. Except that if you define “worse” as “provides less value”, you’re in quite a quagmire.

One solution is to tell the perfect-armed catcher not to be so perfect. Let some guys actual steal bases. Maybe there’s some optimum point where you throw a lot of runners out but they keep trying on you.

Or maybe there’s value to the pitcher in knowing a guy will never steal.

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by Sky Kalkman on Jun 29, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I think there's value in there being no variance to whether a guy will steal

assuming your pitcher is any good.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Jun 29, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Love the idea of the catcher letting some guys steal so that teams will keep trying. :)

As for value to the pitcher, I’m sure that the distraction issue is real. But the other thing that’s real is the distraction issue for the hitter. They showed in The Book that basestealers do decrease batter performance. Might negate the distraction of the pitcher.
-j

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by JinAZ on Jun 29, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point.

Also, while they shouldn’t, it might be that baserunners who have resigned themselves to not stealing may take shorter leads, which is an advantage to the pitching team.

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by Sky Kalkman on Jun 29, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions

unless they take big leads and get picked off, of course

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by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 1, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

would be a bigger advantage to the pitching team, i mean

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by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 1, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

It was brought up in Tango's thread in response to my rankings from last season

it’s (at least partially) a game theory issue, right? A pitcher can always throw a Farns-ball down the middle on 3-0 because some hitters might swing; a team needs to pitch out every once in a while to keep the other team from trying too many steals, a team needs to steal in dumb situations sometimes so that other teams pitch out every once in a while…

Why not?

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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 29, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Gerald Laird may have this perfected.

He’s always been at least league-average throwing out runners and was superb last year (40%), yet had 99 stolen bases attempted against him. Coming off a year where he was so superb, you’d think the league would be hesitant to run against him but nothing’s changed.

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by Mike Rogers on Jun 29, 2010 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions

one man, five tools

one fantastic brain

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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 30, 2010 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Here's a comparison of what I have and what Matt has at the team level

The line’s a y=x curve, not a best fit line. Still, looks pretty tight. I looked around a bit and I don’t see a systematic reason why the teams I’m higher on than you do better than the others. As far as I know, the main difference in how we calculate things is in the error term, but those didn’t seem large enough to drive much of a difference (though I wasn’t real careful on how I looked at this).

I did notice that your total catcher fielding runs sums to -22 runs, whereas mine sums to exactly zero. Maybe the league averages need refreshed? Or maybe it’s just a rounding thing (though you do report to the tenth).

Also, it looks like most of the teams I’m higher on are AL teams. I’m using MLB-wide averages for each variable, whereas you might be using league specific averages(?). I’m not sure it’s that an issue, though, because several of the teams I’m lower on are also AL teams.

I’ll look more at this later if I get a chance. I’m sort of supposed to be working right now though…
-j

I write at:
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by JinAZ on Jun 29, 2010 4:15 PM EDT reply actions

I've been supposed to be working for years

but somehow, even boring catcher defense debates are more interesting than the Deduction of Taste!

Anyhoo… I didn’t realize things were coming to zero… that’s not good. On the table above I have rounded, if I remember later I’ll send you the “raw” spreadsheet.

There might also be some problems with how teams are done.

I (mean) to use MLB-wide averages, and my spreadsheet should automatically update. Don’t tell me I’m going to have to do it all over again!

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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 29, 2010 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions

You should double check your averages or cell references.

I just updated mine and they are summing to zero as well.

Just something I’d like to do…

Average catcher has been behind the plate for 980 PA’s, so we set that as the limit, the most run on catchers are:

Victor Martinez, 9.1% of all base runners with an opportunity to steal (1st or 2nd base, with the next base open) steal
Bengie Molina, 8.2%
Jason Kendall, 8.0%
Jorge Posada, 7.9%
Gerald Laird, 7.2%

Least run on catchers:

Rod Barajas, 2.6%
Ivan Rodriguez, 2.6%
Yadier Molina, 3.7%
Rob Johnson, 4.1%
John Buck, 4.4%
Miguel Olivo, 4.4%

As far as my top five in total runs I have:

Yadier at +6.9
Pudge, 4.6
Wieters, 3.9
Olivo, 3.7
Jose Molina, 3.7

So some differences, but that might have to do with yours not summing to zero yet.

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by Mike Rogers on Jun 29, 2010 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions

wow, wait, -22

I read that earlier as -.22

something ain’t right… crap…

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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 30, 2010 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions

okay... figured out what the problem was

ugh… sorry everyone reading this… I might have to repost next week or sometihng. Embarassing.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 30, 2010 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions

well, it doesn't make a huge differnce

but I have/had a screw-up in the league average. Crap.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 30, 2010 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions

okay... "fixed" for now

I’ll repost the numbers in a few minutes… the lwts don’t quite add up to 0 for some reason, but when I round to up to 13 decimal places they do… so something’s not “quite” right, but given the overall lack of precision here, it’s close enough for now.

Sorry for my stupidity, I’d forgotten that I manually had the averages in a certain column, so it didn’t update…

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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 30, 2010 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions

It's not a big deal at the individual player level, I'd guess

Just sums up to -22 runs at the league level. :) A few weeks ago a simple rounding issue on fielding summed up to 12 runs or so, which was a lot more than I expected it to.

One thing I’ve run into is that in my stuff: the pivot tables update before the new data are pulled from the websites when I hit “refresh.” As a result, if I don’t refresh twice, the catcher averages are always a week behind. Automation is a wonderful thing, but sometimes it means I’m not paying enough attention!

Also, in doing the above comparison, I discovered that I’ve been vlookuping the wrong column for catcher data in the power rankings all season. Brilliant! It actually was a large enough difference to affect the ranking of a few players. Oh well, fixed now.
-j

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by JinAZ on Jun 30, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I don't even use something as sophisticated as pivot tables

straight up cut-and-paste for me!

Anyway, like I posted below, the now add up to 0 out to 13 decimal places…

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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 30, 2010 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm strictly cut-and-paste on this as well.

But I like being smarter than a fangraphs writer! Even if it’s only a simple error, I’m counting it.

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

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by Mike Rogers on Jun 30, 2010 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I love the

dayton moore is an awesome talent evaluator, anal goe, analgoe, and scissoring tags.

With crappy overpaid vets of course!

by TheBravestWay To Block A Decent Prospect on Jun 29, 2010 7:01 PM EDT reply actions

ha

nice caption!

by tomsteele on Jun 30, 2010 12:27 AM EDT reply actions

thanks

As it turns out, it’s the only decent part of this post

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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 30, 2010 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Bengie molina should be on the bottom of that list

Anyone who’s a giants fan can attest to this. More than half the “wild pitches” the giants pitching staff has are passed balls courtesy of molina. They are labeled as “wild pitches” though because the score keeper is a homer for bengie, similar to everyone who works for the giants.

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by sfgiants420 on Jun 30, 2010 1:38 AM EDT reply actions