Is Adrian Beltre A Future Hall-Of-Famer?
by Satchel Price on Jun 28, 2010 2:30 PM EDT
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PrintI was doing my daily scouring of the leaderboards, and I was immediately struck by the fact that Adrian Beltre is still batting .340 on the year, despite coming into the season at .270 for his career. Now, I don't want to focus on his 2010 performance too much, he has a high line drive rate and a .376 BABIP, so his exploits this season are somewhat explainable from a guy with world-class athletic talent.
But what caught my eye even more than his 2010 numbers was the astonishing consistency with which he's put up quality numbers over the past decade. And frankly, it's got me begging the question, "Will this guy end up getting some serious Cooperstown recognition?"
Obviously, if you look at just his bat, he's certainly not a Hall of Famer. He's got a career batting line of .274/.327/.458, good for a slightly above average .338 wOBA. But here's a friendly reminder that Beltre hasn't just been good with the glove at third base in his career. He's been special. Since the creation of UZR in 2002, he's put up an average defensive mark of +15.5 per 150 games, with a total defensive mark of +135 since the beginning of the 1998 season.
Not to mention that Beltre should probably get some extra credit as the only player in the FanGraphs era (2002-present) to put up a double-digit season season WAR other than Barry Bonds, his monster 2004 was the last time that we've seen a player cross the 10.0 WAR threshold. For a second, actually, let's just reflect on that season, which landed him a five-year, $65M deal with the Mariners the following offseason. Coming off of a two-season span where he emerged as the game's premier defensive third baseman but showed a consistently below average bat, Beltre absolutely blew up. He put up a .334/.388/.629 line (.424 wOBA), as he saw significant improvement in his K/BB and his HR/FB. The increased power led to 48 homers, 32 doubles, 200 hits and 121 RBI, some pretty crazy counting numbers. Add in some elite defensive work (+24.4 UZR) and you have a 10.1 WAR season. And the best part it, maybe? At the time he was a 25-year-old entering free agency. This would be like if Evan Longoria hit free agency this offseason.
Alas, I think that people often focus on their disappointment with Beltre, though. He's been a pretty consistently high quality player, but his 2004 performance has just left everyone drooling, because it was a combination of hitting and defensive prowess that we've rarely seen before. But even though Beltre has had some serious trouble replicating his offensive magic (which you can somewhat blame on Safeco Field; he picked like pretty much the worst place for his bat to play when he signed with the M's), I think he's closing in on that point where we have to acknowledge that this might be a Hall-of-Fame career.
Put together everything that Beltre has done on the field, and FanGraphs has Beltre's value at +47.1 wins coming into today, which puts him at the same level as luminaries such as Fred Lynn and Bernie Williams. Certainly an impressive group, but most people would probably be in agreement that they aren't quite Hall-of-Famers.
The key here, though, is that Beltre is showing no signs of slowing down. As I noted before, he's killing the ball in Boston right now, and the glove has shown few signs of decline (+13 UZR/150). But most importantly, despite the fact that he's seemingly been around forever, Beltre is only 31-years-old. He's on pace for a 6.5-7.0 WAR season right now, which he probably won't maintain all season, but something around 5.0-5.5 wins seems pretty reasonable.
Add in a few more seasons at 3-4 WAR, which isn't reasonable considering he averaged about 4 WAR per year over the course of his 11-season career, and Beltre should be somewhere around 60 or so wins before everything is said and done. That's the range of guys like Bob Feller, Ryne Sandberg and Yogi Berra. Factor in that he has that signature monster season and he's endearing himself to a lot of Red Sox fans right now, and his case looks like it could end up being pretty strong.
You know what? I think that Adrian Beltre might be a Hall-of-Famer.
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But the problem isn't the total WAR
It’s how he’s getting it. Beltre has been very good, consistently posting around 4 WAR seasons, he only has one really amazing season (his 10 WAR season).
That's pretty impressive, IMO, a 4 WAR player is well above average and pretty close to star-quality
He might not get in because he doesn’t have the shiny counting stats, but overall his production to date has put him on a reasonable path to the HOF.
Plus, his offensive numbers seem to be coming out a lot better with the move from Safeco to Fenway, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he hit better over the next few years than he did for most of his tenure as a Mariner. It would probably help if he raised his career OBP over .330 though. But ZiPS projects him to finish this year at just over +27 RAA with the bat, which would give him a second elite-quality season if he finishes near 6-7 WAR.
Still, if Beltre plays well for a few more years, his horn is probably one that I’ll be tooting.
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I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 28, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
If we're making a HoF argument on WAR (which I do plenty). . .
. . . for me, a guy’s going to have to get well beyond what we consider our career total threshold if he did it off of mostly average-to-All-Star caliber years, with very few elite and MVP caliber seasons.
I agree, and I'd like to think
that over time the overall qualities of a player, including defense, WAR and other valuations not currently in vogue with BBWAA voters will gradually become more accepted.
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
That's really our only hope, isn't it?
Hopefully the BBWAA’s knowledge of advanced evaluation and sabermetrics will increase somewhat exponentially over the next decade or so.
I have to imagine things are getting better, I just hope that Beltre has a couple more “signature seasons” that really stick in the minds of voters. He has 2004, and this year appears to be one of those years, too. He needs a couple more, and I’m relatively optimistic that it could happen, especially if he stays in Boston.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 29, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
It all depends on the voters.
You mentioned his triple slash line, which is underwhelming. His counting stats leave something to be desired, too. Basically, he would be getting in on an average bat and other-worldly defense, but unfortunately he has only won 2 gold gloves. I mean, Derek Jeter has 4 GG to his name. What’s this you say about WZR/169? WPR? wOBwhat? As a HOF voter, I have no idea what you are talking about.
"It's great to be young and a Yankee"
Yeah, his candidacy is going to be a tough one to argue because the BA/OBP
But by the time he’s finished, he could plausibly have over 300 homers, near 2500 hits, near 500 doubles, well over 1000 RBI and runs scored, and over 120 stolen bases, too.
If his defense is properly acknowledged and people remember that he’s hit in some pretty crappy offensive environments (he’s hit much worse at home than away in his career), then he really should get a good deal of support.
Obviously whether that happens remains to be seen, but as I said before, playing exceptionally well for the Red Sox will do nothing but help his candidacy.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 28, 2010 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
A lot depends on where he spends the next 5 years of his career.
I’m a Yankees fan, so i honestly don’t want to see him spend the next few years in Boston. I think Cot’s says he has a player option for next year, and then (assuming all goes well) maybe Boston signs him to a 2-year deal. Obviously Fenway would help is offensive stats somewhat and thus make him easier for HOF voters to swallow. It should also allow him to win more GGs, just by being in a bigger market.
I also assume that by the time Beltre is eligible for the HOF, everyone will be much more aware of his defensive abilities and how defense (especially at different positions) contributes to wins, etc. etc. etc.
"It's great to be young and a Yankee"
by stillmonster on Jun 28, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, it's good to see that all of the major defensive metrics are in agreement about his brilliance, too.
As I said before, UZR has him at +15.5 per 150 games from 2002-2009, and DRS has him at about +18.4 per season for 2003-2009, while TotalZone has him at +9.8 for the same period.
And I would consider it a good thing that UZR and DRS like Beltre more than TotalZone.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 28, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Data is from Rally’s, so TZ for Defense, which as Satchel says above is lower on him than other metrics. Comps are because I already had those guys in a graph.
That's not too bad.
Especially if you give him the benefit of the doubt with the defense metrics and assume that TotalZone is underrating him a little. With a few more good years, he should be pretty close, at least in terms of having a deserving candidacy.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 28, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
He's a classic unloved player
Blyleven was largely this way. Rolen is sort of the same. Often a member of forgettable teams and too much going from place-to-place without endearing themselves to a particular fanbase who will always sing their praises. These guys never seem as good as they would if they’d put up all their numbers with a single team or two.
Yeah, with his resurgence the past two years
I don’t see how Rolen isn’t a Hall of Famer by the time he’s done.
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I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 28, 2010 5:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You see, I just don't think the voters will feel the same.
I think getting Beltre in will be a bit of a pipe dream, and quite honestly less of a sabermetric priority than getting Rolen in. I have absolutely zero faith that the BBWAA will put Rolen in, and I don’t think Beltre will approach his numbers (wOBA, WAR, or otherwise). As a Sox fan, I’d like to see it happen. But I’m guessing he’s not here next year, leaving his perfect fit of a ballpark behind.
On Twitter: @baseballtwit
Maybe I'm missing someone, but there are 6 (or 7 including A-Rod) 3rd basemen who all have at least a shot at the HOF
Chipper and Rolen are locks, Wright should be a lock in 3 or 4 more seasons, and Zimmerman and Longoria just need to stay healthy, and then Beltre who has to overcome the ignorance of defensive stats by the MSM.
Agreed.
I mean, I’m the one who said that we were entering a sort of golden age of third basemen before the season started, so we know where I stand on this.
Chipper and Rolen are no-brainers at this point.
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I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 28, 2010 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not as sure.
Wright, Zimmerman, and Longoria all have the potential, but so do lots of players. All three could get injured soon, and same with Beltre. It wasn’t that long ago (as in last year) that we were wondering if HOF voters would put in Rolen. After his shoulder injury, his bat pretty much fell to the wayside. Thankfully, he has had a fine year this year, and we all remember how awesome he has been for such a long time. I just feel that any position has so many great young players that it is perhaps a little too tempting to say we are in a ‘golden age’ at 3B.
"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial
To be fair,
it makes less sense to project such lofty careers at catcher and pitcher, while 3B, and other position players in general, tend to stay healthier longer. My point still stands, though.
"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial
Injuries are a concern
But at the very least, Wright is going to end his age 27 season with just under 40 WAR, so even if he were to average 3.5 WAR for the rest of his career, that would put him comfortably in the top 50 all time.
If Beltre has a chance
It will mean the HOF voters get 100% on board with defensive metrics. That means Rolen gets in easy, and there should be a lot of pressure on the VC to put in guys like Nettles and Buddy Bell. Doubt it. More likely Rolen gets very little HOF love.
"That boy is our last hope" - Obi Wan Scioscia, as Francisco Rodriguez left for the Mets. "No, there is another" - Yoda Reagins.
And that just makes my head hurt, because Rolen is one of those guys who's just really clearly a fantastic defender at third
So maybe it’s still about the fact that people don’t really believe that a player’s defense can be worth 25 runs in a given season, on some level.
I’m definitely willing to concede that Beltre probably won’t get it, primarily because of the doubt in his defensive value and his BA/OBP.
But that doesn’t mean that it isn’t worth talking about his career from that respect, because it’s getting to the point where he’s had a truly impressive career.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 28, 2010 10:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Rolen has the double-whammy
of also being a high OBP guy. Voters just don’t understand them. He has 1885 hits and 300 home runs! Those aren’t Hall of Fame numbers!
Luckily, he’s showing no signs of slowing. He should already be a HOFer, but if he can get well above 2000 hits and maybe somewhat closer to 400 HR, they’ll THINK about it.
But I have absolutely no faith he gets in. And he so clearly should be.
I doubt Jim Edmonds last past one ballot, too. Makes me sad.
On Twitter: @baseballtwit
Edmonds was a gamer
Hall of Fame voters put extra emphasis on things like that. Remember how Jim Rice was a “feared” hitter?
Yeah but
A gamer with less than 2000 hits and 400 home runs. I’d say they look harder at that.
On Twitter: @baseballtwit
I wrote about this for www.proballnw.com about 6 months ago.
I’m glad other people are thinking about it too. My main point was comparing him with Brooks Robinson seeing as they both have reputations as glove men, but are also pretty good hitters.
Here’s my post.
Good stuff, I just wonder if HOF voters might focus on the GG's too much
Because Robinson won 16, and Beltre’s won 2.
Not to mention that Robinson had an MVP award under his belt. Robinson’s defense was viewed in a different light than Beltre’s, too, even though that’s not really a fair evaluation.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 29, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
And Santo's exclusion is an absolute travesty.
He’s so clearly a Hall-of-Famer that the entire BBWAA should be embarrassed.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 29, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Twice the Average Player
Beltre is almost exactly 100% above average for his career. This puts him near HOF’s Sisler and Wheat and contemporaries Kent and Sosa. It will only take 4 seasons to reach those totals, so he should definitely be in discussion for the Hall of Fame.
HS team nickname: Redmen, College team nickname: Warriors, Amateur team nickname: Chiefs, Favorite MLB team: Braves. Holy political incorrectness...
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