FanShot

Two recent threads have brought up the appropriateness of using xFIP to judge past performance for...

Two recent threads have brought up the appropriateness of using xFIP to judge past performance for pitchers. (And Adam's tie-in to his career touches on a related point, too.) I'll summarize the arguments for and against using xFIP as a retrospective metric below, but the reason I bring this up is because I think the arguments are more nuanced than these simplified viewpoints: Against using xFIP as a retrospective measure: Sure, HR/FB might need a large sample size to become a good representation of a pitcher's skill, but those home runs actually happened and the pitcher is the one responsible for them happening. For a historical metric, we should use actual home runs, not a home run estimate based on fly balls. (One could also argue that any sort of FIP measure removes a pitcher's performance with runners on base, which is not right, because that "clutchiness" performance actually happened, too.) For using xFIP as a retrospective measure: Yes, those home runs occurred when the pitcher was on the mound, but, like BABIP, they aren't necessarily a result of his talent. The cliche is that "pitchers allow fly balls, but hitters turn them into home runs." If we're going to assess a pitcher's future HR skill based on FB's, then why would measuring his past skill be any different? I see two levels of discussion here: which of those two simplified arguments do you agree with (and why) and what nuances do they miss that are important (and why)? For example, are there more distinctions to be made than just past/future? Where does the distinction between past value and past talent come into play?

A question from Sky
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Beyond the Box Score

You must be a member of Beyond the Box Score to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Beyond the Box Score. You should read them.

Join Beyond the Box Score

You must be a member of Beyond the Box Score to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Beyond the Box Score. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker