BtB Power Rankings: Week 12

Toprank-062310_medium

Allrank-062310_medium

"On Paper" Playoff Rankings

American League: E=Yankees, C=Twins, W=Rangers, WC=Rays
National League: E=Braves, C=Cardinals, W=Padres, WC=Giants

Under the Hood

Converting Runs to Wins

Team G RS eRS RA eRA W% pW% cW% xtW LgAdj TPI
ARI 72 323 320 394 322 0.389 0.404 0.497 73 -9 0.470
ATL 71 354 357 289 294 0.592 0.594 0.591 96 -9 0.566
BAL 70 229 250 374 365 0.271 0.287 0.332 50 9 0.356
BOS 72 380 393 317 329 0.597 0.585 0.584 96 9 0.607
CHW 69 294 286 307 300 0.507 0.480 0.478 79 9 0.505
CHC 70 283 293 299 287 0.443 0.474 0.509 78 -9 0.482
CIN 72 334 354 319 340 0.542 0.521 0.520 86 -9 0.495
CLE 69 294 287 355 351 0.377 0.411 0.405 64 9 0.430
COL 70 290 294 250 296 0.529 0.566 0.496 83 -9 0.469
DET 69 312 337 306 309 0.551 0.509 0.541 88 9 0.566
FLA 70 337 326 308 315 0.486 0.543 0.516 82 -9 0.491
HOU 71 239 199 364 324 0.366 0.316 0.290 52 -9 0.263
KCR 72 315 320 354 366 0.403 0.444 0.436 68 9 0.461
LAD 70 334 332 332 335 0.543 0.503 0.496 84 -9 0.471
LAA 73 351 320 358 354 0.548 0.490 0.452 80 9 0.478
MIL 70 344 364 380 356 0.429 0.452 0.510 77 -9 0.487
MIN 70 334 348 281 286 0.571 0.580 0.590 94 9 0.615
NYY 71 393 396 291 296 0.620 0.640 0.636 102 9 0.659
NYM 70 332 321 282 314 0.571 0.576 0.510 87 -9 0.485
OAK 73 296 305 320 317 0.466 0.463 0.483 77 9 0.510
PHI 68 301 290 280 287 0.529 0.534 0.505 83 -8 0.478
PIT 70 233 244 389 359 0.357 0.278 0.327 55 -9 0.303
SDP 70 319 301 253 248 0.586 0.604 0.588 95 -9 0.559
SEA 70 242 243 308 313 0.414 0.392 0.387 65 9 0.415
SFG 69 296 304 241 289 0.565 0.592 0.523 88 -9 0.497
STL 70 325 331 262 275 0.557 0.598 0.585 93 -9 0.559
TBR 70 365 345 273 277 0.600 0.634 0.603 97 9 0.628
TEX 70 354 344 296 309 0.600 0.584 0.551 93 9 0.576
TOR 71 336 318 315 304 0.535 0.530 0.520 85 9 0.547
WSN 72 296 302 331 339 0.458 0.449 0.447 73 -9 0.421

G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals.  If you don't like the league adjustment, click in the header and sort by this column.
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here).
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.


Team Offenses and Defenses

Team RS eRS wOBA OBP SLG wRC EqBRR Clutch RA eRA ERA FIP xFIP xFIPrns Field Catch BABIP
ARI 323 320 0.327 0.330 0.429 326 -6 -11 394 322 5.49 4.90 4.53 332 9 -5 0.322
ATL 354 357 0.338 0.351 0.400 353 5 1 289 294 3.79 3.87 4.10 294 8 1 0.295
BAL 229 250 0.303 0.310 0.363 252 -2 -7 374 365 5.03 4.92 4.84 342 -28 1 0.313
BOS 380 393 0.353 0.353 0.465 397 -4 0 317 329 4.20 4.21 4.54 342 0 1 0.291
CHW 294 286 0.318 0.323 0.401 286 0 7 307 300 4.40 3.88 4.12 292 -5 -1 0.311
CHC 283 293 0.319 0.327 0.404 296 -4 -36 299 287 3.94 3.98 4.15 294 -7 2 0.303
CIN 334 354 0.337 0.339 0.444 352 2 1 319 340 4.48 4.31 4.51 336 -4 -1 0.311
CLE 294 287 0.317 0.323 0.373 287 0 -4 355 351 4.66 4.55 4.79 336 -4 -1 0.309
COL 290 294 0.315 0.330 0.410 288 6 -30 250 296 3.61 3.73 4.18 300 22 -2 0.298
DET 312 337 0.338 0.342 0.425 337 0 15 306 309 4.24 4.05 4.52 317 6 -1 0.299
FLA 337 326 0.329 0.329 0.405 321 4 -21 308 315 4.01 3.88 4.34 311 -5 1 0.307
HOU 239 199 0.281 0.283 0.333 197 2 38 364 324 4.68 3.99 4.29 309 -18 1 0.331
KCR 315 320 0.324 0.335 0.408 318 1 -11 354 366 4.86 4.56 4.67 343 -33 0 0.309
LAD 334 332 0.330 0.334 0.406 327 5 2 332 335 4.15 3.96 4.19 303 -35 -1 0.306
LAA 351 320 0.327 0.323 0.413 323 -3 22 358 354 4.50 4.34 4.48 333 -15 -2 0.312
MIL 344 364 0.342 0.337 0.433 364 0 -21 380 356 5.07 4.44 4.48 322 -42 -1 0.333
MIN 334 348 0.339 0.348 0.417 349 -1 -14 281 286 3.85 3.92 4.17 302 8 3 0.304
NYY 393 396 0.355 0.359 0.440 396 0 4 291 296 3.89 4.20 4.23 304 9 0 0.282
NYM 332 321 0.328 0.327 0.402 317 4 -7 282 314 3.76 4.15 4.51 328 11 1 0.304
OAK 296 305 0.320 0.323 0.382 308 -3 -3 320 317 4.04 4.28 4.31 321 4 2 0.291
PHI 301 290 0.323 0.327 0.412 297 -7 7 280 287 4.01 4.28 4.23 293 11 3 0.293
PIT 233 244 0.302 0.305 0.360 247 -3 7 389 359 5.18 4.81 4.72 334 -23 -1 0.318
SDP 319 301 0.321 0.319 0.367 301 0 -3 253 248 3.07 3.54 3.78 278 21 4 0.283
SEA 242 243 0.301 0.309 0.345 244 -1 16 308 313 3.92 4.10 4.49 321 16 -2 0.292
SFG 296 304 0.325 0.330 0.409 304 0 -3 241 289 3.28 3.79 4.34 311 26 -4 0.280
STL 325 331 0.333 0.335 0.415 333 -2 -16 262 275 3.20 3.78 3.97 288 12 3 0.291
TBR 365 345 0.335 0.336 0.408 340 5 -13 273 277 3.55 4.10 4.19 304 28 0 0.285
TEX 354 344 0.334 0.341 0.426 336 8 15 296 309 3.94 4.33 4.46 324 12 0 0.285
TOR 336 318 0.330 0.308 0.449 319 -1 19 315 304 4.28 3.98 4.15 302 12 -3 0.300
WSN 296 302 0.321 0.326 0.404 306 -4 -13 331 339 4.17 4.36 4.62 340 -8 3 0.306

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics.  We report this in runs.

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: tRuns - Field - Catch
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs.  Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average.  xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = The average of team UZR and team DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately).
Catch = Catcher Fielding Runs, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference.  The methods are essentially those described here.  But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater precision.
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play.  Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although chance events can have effects as well.

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