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Young CFs Plagued by Poor Plate Discipline

Coming into the season, there were a lot of high expectations for the game's newest crop of young center fielders. I mean, everybody loves hoping that the next Griffey, Beltran or Andruw Jones emerges, an all-around beast that thrives both at the plate and at one of the game's most difficult and valuable positions.

As of today, though, I think that most people would comfortably say that the vast majority of that class of players have seriously underwhelmed. Alas, I'm certainly not getting on Colby Rasmus or Andrew McCutchen, those two have already emerged as the two best candidates to take place as the game's best center fielder sometime soon. Rather, I'm talking about pretty much everyone else. While some of them have actually played somewhat well in spite of their lack of discipline as hitters, that's mostly because of the otherworldly tools and skills that got them to the majors in the first place despite their lack of a developed approach at the plate. Oh, and a little thing called luck, too.

Here's a quick look at the bevy of center fielders, along with their subpar K/BB rates:

- Drew Stubbs, Cincinnati: 9.8% BB%, 31.4% K%, 0.35 BB/K

- Gerardo Parra, Arizona: 5.3% BB%, 19.4% K%, 0.29 BB/K

- Cameron Maybin, Florida: 7.0% BB%, 30.8% K%, 0.25 BB/K

- Austin Jackson, Detroit: 6.0% BB%, 26.8% K% 0.24 BB/K

- Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado: 3.7% BB%, 22.0% K%, 0.18 BB/K

- Adam Jones, Baltimore: 3.1% BB%, 22.0% K%, 0.15 BB/K

- Julio Borbon, Texas: 1.6% BB%, 14.4% K%, 0.12 BB/K

Star-divide

That's seven of the most talented young center fielders in the game, and all three of them are currently flashing definitively below average walk-to-strikeout ratios. Even the guys that are showing respectable walk rates, like Maybin, Stubbs and Jackson, are having serious issues with making consistent contact. Some of these guys have been skating by lately on high BABIP's and above average power output, but in general few players can really thrive with the kind of plate discipline that these guys have been showing.

Obviously these guys are some of the most toolsy, talented players on the field generally, as playing center field and getting to the majors requires a large amount of those things. But even for a guy with pretty much every tool in the shed, like Mr. Jones or Mr. Gonzalez, it's just really difficult to thrive at the world's highest level without an approach that forces the world's best pitchers to miss some pitches and make some mistakes.

The sea of fallen prospects is full of tattered remains from failed CF prospects, guys like Felix Pie and Brian Anderson (Chicago really sucks with CF, right..?  Oh wait, Byrd and Rios have been awesome this year. For the moment, never mind). But they weren't guys that failed because they didn't have the athleticism to stay in center or the tools to hit in the majors. They failed for the exact same reasons that some of these guys have been struggling this season: a truly sub-par approach as a hitter. Both Pie and Anderson have similar BB/K ratios, but the theme is common, and it's too many strikeouts and not enough walks.

Sometimes players can shake off those early-career issues and make good on their talent, as we've seen Pie show some significant improvement since being dealt to Baltimore before the 2009 season. But other times, it just never works out. Just look at Anderson, who signed with the Royals before this season but opted to take the Sergio Santos Route and turn to pitching. A few of these guys will probably end up finishing the season being regarded among the best young outfielders in the game. But right now, it's worth keeping an eye on their walks and strikeouts, because some improvement there could go a really long way for these guys.

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Few things

First off, why do some continue to use BB/PA and K/AB in the same article? It just doesn’t make sense to do so. If we want to know how often a guy strikes out, look at how often he does it versus the times he steps to the plate. Each time he walks is a time he didn’t strike out, but in K/AB those simply don’t count as ‘avoiding the strike out’.

Secondly, plate discipline shouldn’t be used when solely referring to K/BB. Some guys can have very good plate discipline and just have problems making contact. Isn’t plate discipline ones ability to determine the strikezone and not swing at pitches outside of it? Colby Rasmus for example has an outside zone swing rate of 23.2%. Drew Stubbs is sitting at 24.3% (most everyone else on the list above is far and away worse). The difference in ‘discipline’ between Stubbs and Rasmus is negligible. The major difference is the contact rates. Just one of those issues that always got to me when using the term ‘plate discipline’. Some guys, like Stubbs for example, don’t really have plate discipline problems, they have contact problems. There is a difference there.

by dougdirt on Jun 14, 2010 1:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Not really germane to your point

But I think I’d be more worried about poor contact than poor plate discipline.

Which tends to be the reason for the big strikeout guys (Reynolds, Howard, etc)? Do they chase a lot of bad pitches or just swing and miss a lot because they’re trying to crush the ball?

by Dan Turkenkopf on Jun 14, 2010 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

It’s one thing if a guy is just swinging at the wrong pitches, but it’s a whole different thing if he’s swinging at the right pitches and not hitting them anyways.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jun 14, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

The contact vs. plate discipline point is a good one

Yeah, the biggest difference between Rasmus and Stubbs is that Rasmus can make up for the flaws in his approach more so because of his superior ability to make contact.

Maybe focusing on the term “plate discipline” wasn’t the most accurate way to go about this, particularly when focusing on the strikeout rates. But in the end, if a guy is striking out over 30% of the time, it is what it is, whether it’s because he’s swinging at the wrong pitches or swinging at the right pitches and just flat-out missing them.

Some of these guys need to work on their plate discipline, for sure, and some of them probably need to focus more on pitch recognition and making contact. Thanks for the comment, though, twas a really good point to make.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jun 14, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

And as for the K/AB or K/PA thing, I was merely using the statistics available at FanGraphs

I’m not totally sure if they still follow this belief, but David Appelman wrote this regarding K/AB vs. K/PA roughly a year ago: “The reasoning behind this is that you can’t strike out if you’re not swinging the bat or not getting pitches to actually hit, so K% is per AB and BB% is per PA. The point is to try and isolate ability to make contact with the ball using traditional stats as opposed to actual swing/miss rates.”

Not sure how right or how wrong that is, and I can certainly see why someone wouldn’t totally agree with this. But in the end, it’s not really that big of a deal, particularly when we’re talking about guys with low walk totals. The guys that really see their K rate suffer when it’s in AB instead of PA are guys that walk a lot, because then their AB’s are significantly less than their PA’s. So basically, someone like Rasmus.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jun 14, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

The problem I see is pointed out here

Lets just take Stubbs and Borbon for example. If both guys ‘strike out at a 30% rate’ using a K/AB, one guy is striking out a lot more than the other guy.

If we gave each guy 500 at bats but kept their walk rates as they currently are Stubbs would need 555 PA to strike out 150 times (30% if we use K/AB), but Borbon would need just 510 PA to strike out 150 times (still 30% if we use K/AB).

by dougdirt on Jun 14, 2010 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Which is definitely something that needs to be addressed in some way

I just haven’t seen any definitive study that says that K/PA is more reflective of a player’s tendency to strike out or not than K/AB, and since K/AB is used by FanGraphs (a site that I like a lottttt), I just stuck with that.

And let’s be honest: Stubbs has a 32% K rate right now, but if you adjusted it for PA’s instead of AB’s, he’d have a 29% K rate. Either way, the strikeouts are a problem.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jun 14, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Absolutely its a problem

But a strikeout rate judged by K/AB can be very misleading, especially when comparing a player who walks 6 times as often as some other guys on the list.

It is similar to using K/9ip for pitchers with a guy like say, Clayton Kershaw and a guy like Cliff Lee. Kershaw is facing a lot more hitters in his typical 9 innings, so even if they had similar K/9, Cliff Lee is going to certainly be striking out a lot more guys. (just an example of a guy with great control vs a guy with poor control).

by dougdirt on Jun 14, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

At the end of the day

I would just rather use the most precise stat, especially when its incredibly simple (such as simply dividing two numbers without any long formula).

by dougdirt on Jun 14, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d expect CarGo to be solid going forward, but the rest are more questionable.

by Adam Reynolds on Jun 17, 2010 7:23 PM EDT reply actions  

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