Base Running: Which Teams Help (or Hurt) Themselves the Most?
by Justin Bopp on Jun 14, 2010 8:00 AM EDT
in Visuals Above Replacement
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EQBRR, per Baseball Prospectus
Equivalent Base Running Runs. Measures the number of runs contributed by a player's advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table.
EqBRR is calculated as the sum of various baserunning components: Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR), Equivalent Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR), Equivalent Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR), Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs (EqHAR) and Equivalent Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR).
Thoughts & Notes, Method, and Full Graphs after the Jump.
Click to enlarge:
Method:
Data is based on 2010 results from Baseball Prospectus for the nine members of each team with the most plate appearances, regardless of position, and summed accordingly, pulled 06/13/10.
Notes and Thoughts:
1. It's hard not to notice that the NL appears to have overall better runners and decision-makers on the base path. Doesn't that kinda gel with what we believe the NL should be?
2. Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan: WOW.
3. In the course of this study, I discovered that Billy "the 23-year-old DH" Butler is currently tied for 2nd place in Kansas City with a 0.4 EQBRR. This comes as a total surprise, considering the team is supposed to be fast, athletic, and smart.
4. Now, most sabermetricians already know by heart that stealing bases is rarely worth it (you have to approach 70-75% success rate to make the risk of an out worth it), but the previous note and a couple other "oh, really?"-type big guys near the top of their respective team's list should tell you something else: "the only way to win is not to play." *
5. It's somewhat amusing to see power hitting teams like Tampa, Texas, and Milwaukee all near the best in their leagues for base running, while "speedy, grit-it-out" teams like Kansas City and Houston are in the negatives. Read: refer to previous point.
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The only first place team under 0.0 is the Padres. I wonder how much of a coincidence that is.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio
Not sure if relevant
…or park related, but in the course of this research I noticed that SD currently has the lowest BABIP, too.
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These graphs are beautiful.
The color. That title face. The subtle background. Love it.
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Agreed!
But why are the better teams on the bottom?
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Is the visual joy of seeing
the better teams almost reach the base in the background overcome by the unconcious decision to reverse the Y axis?
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by Justin Bopp on Jun 14, 2010 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I hadn't realize that until you pointed it out.
But it’s a nice idea
Go Twins!
Well, I decided Suss was right.
For the team graphs, I put the Y-axis back into what most people would expect. Not sure it looks as good, but oh well. I have a commitment to expectation!
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Thanks much, Adam.
And if you counter with another SaberCard 3.0, I’ll stab you with the sharp end of a DiamondView, I swear it!
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by Justin Bopp on Jun 14, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Whose Diamondview would you use?
I’m just guessing here, but I bet a Jose Guillen Diamondview would be obscenely pointy down the power end. But there’d be nowhere to grab it.
Go Twins!
Depends.
Probably a power-hitting shortstop. Love those guys—and their Diamondviews.
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Why didn't you
Just pull in the total team baserunning?
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=69262
Seems like that might have been easier and better, no?
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Actually, that does make sense (and would be easier). But
I originally set out to do a look at individual marks and changed my focus after the data had been collected. I think I will be breaking out the data for one or two particular teams per request in this comment section.
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For which teams do you
want to see an individual data breakout?
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mets
"The one thing you don't want to do is hit a home run. That's a rally-killer." -Jeff Francoeur
by RangersandMets on Jun 14, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Just know
that Jose Reyes is freaking amazing (#1 overall, btw), and Pagan is holding his own.
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by Justin Bopp on Jun 14, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
They'd be gettin' all runny
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Speaking of the Mets,
I was wrong. Pagan is #1.
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Definitely one of the most underrated players in baseball coming into the season
And not just by the traditional media, but by us saber guys, too. He can really play.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jun 15, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Rays, please.
Hey, Surly only looks out for one guy...Surly!
by Andy Hellicksonstine on Jun 15, 2010 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Ok, I'm done with the team breakout requests for now.
Not sure when I’ll post them. Maybe this weekend, but probably next week.
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If I was to add up all of the teams EQBRR wouldn’t I expect that to come out to zero [since it is above/below average]? Well, YTD, the average team is actually at -1.6 runs. The sum only comesout to zero, if you exclude the SEVEN WORST teams in EQBRR!
Anyways, I compared EQBRR per game to total runs scored above league average per game and got a .30 correlation. Per 162 games, the top half of the teams are +74.1 runs and +1.06 EQBRR vs -75.0 and -9.17.
That means
most teams hurt themselves on the basepath.
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by Justin Bopp on Jun 14, 2010 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
The Rangers are positive?
That blows my mind. They’ve had something like a 60% success rate on SBs this year. We’ve been bitching about their free-wheeling, caught-stealing ways almost all year at this point.
I guess they’re advancing really well on everything but stolen bases?
Other note, last year the Rangers had a ridiculous 90% SB success rate, so I wonder what our EQBRR would be worth this year if we had the same rate as last year.. Perhaps another half a win or more?
It's not all about the basestealing.
I was a bit taken aback when I saw Rally had Nellie Fox worth +32 runs on the bases despite a SB% of 48.7% (76 SB, 80 CS)
Alas:
BSR – Baserunning runs. Includes stolen bases, advancement on hits, outs, wild pitches, passed balls, and outs made on bases. This is estimated from a regression formula for seasons without play by play data.
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So
teams that hit multiple-base hits will benefit their EQBRR, assuming there is somebody on base?
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by Justin Bopp on Jun 14, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
I think that's right.
I believe EQBRR includes first-to-third/second-to-home on singles, as well as first-to-home on doubles.
Upon further review...
this is probably EqHAR.
I feel like somebody should create a sabermetric Snow White and the Seven Baserunning Dwarves using BP’s component names.
hehe
1. Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR) – Groundy
2. Equivalent Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR) – Stealie
3. Equivalent Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR) – Airey
4. Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs (EqHAR) – Hittie
5. Equivalent Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR) – Othery
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by Justin Bopp on Jun 14, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Someone remind me
to actually make a graph of this breakout. It will look great.
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I understand that.
My point is, that if SB breaks even at around 70% (0 runs) and the Rangers are at a 60% success rate, they are getting negative runs from their SB component to the tune of 10%
They’ve been caught stealing ALOT. But apparently they’re making alot of strong advancements on singles and doubles to make up for the SB losses. I’d like to know where they make this difference up, cause Rangers fans have generally looked at the team as giving up alot of stupid extra outs on the basepaths
I think perhaps they're do for a breakdown.
I can add Texas to my EQBRR breakdown I do—next week I think.
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Thanks James.
I’m posting the Mets Base Running graph next week, I think. They’re going up against Texas and Tampa.
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I'm just wondering
but how do you traditional “speed guys” perform in this metric? You know, guys like Pierre, Bourn or Gardner?
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
how do you what?
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I believe there's just an extra "you" in the question.
Either that, or Satchel is calling Justin a “traditional ‘speed guy’”. :)
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That shows you!
I AM a traditional speed guy!
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Just ask the ladies.
cough
Sorry, it was RIGHT THERE. I couldn’t help myself.
Go Twins!
SPEED
AND POWER
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OK, that explains 0.82 Orioles losses
I’m assuming the other 45.18 losses rests with the batters.
Matt Wieters has a sustainably high BABIP
by CoachOfEarl on Jun 14, 2010 2:15 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Hey, that's not fair!
The pitching has been really awful too. Truly terrible.
To wit, they have the second worst xFIP in the majors – 4.81, beating the Indians by a mighty .02.
They’re just 4th from last in wOBA.
So, actually, the pitching has been even worse! Hah!
… sorry
Go Twins!
O's cumulative 1B: .215/.287/.263
The pitching just recently got ugly, the offense has been absent all season.
by CoachOfEarl on Jun 15, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
That's Gload-esque.
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by Justin Bopp on Jun 15, 2010 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I just picture the O's front office sitting there
And they’re sitting there thinking, “Wait, this is Garrett Atkins?”
Gotta love that precipitous decline (wOBA by year): .410, .368, .337, .291, .263
It’s like every year he challenges himself to lower his wOBA by at least 25 points.
I like baseball.
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by Satchel Price on Jun 15, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Random note:
I’ll often remove the SB piece from BPro’s baserunning metrics. People tend to be more familiar with SB/CS, but less familiar with abilities to take bases in other situations. Of course, what you use depends on the question you’re asking.
I'm confused.
Which is pretty easy to do, but I guess I don’t understand the purpose. SB/CS would seem like a vital component of base running. Why would you look at EQBRR without SB?
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Because people measure SB/CS separately.
It’s part of Fangraphs’ wOBA (I think) and therefore part of wRAA and WAR.
So if you wanted to add on the other baserunning stuff, you don’t want to double-count the SB piece.
Just an example. There are many situations where you’d certainly want to lump it all together.
just a couple of comments
Very nice job, but I do have a couple of graph questions. Why did you put the negative numbers up top? Seems counterintuitive to me. Also, is light green on dark green easy to see? Why did you approach the color contrast that way?
Don’t mean to be picky. Just wondering about your thought process.
I put the negatives on top
because I wanted the visual effect of the “good” teams looking like they were reaching the same base as the character in the background. That said, I didn’t even think about it being counter-intuitive. Everything else we see has the best item on top, why shouldn’t this?
Next time I make these, I’ll probably adjust that to be more obvious and fit with expectations.
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Color
The color choices are personal taste and based on a secret formula which I am sworn to never give away, but yes, light green on dark green is easy to see. ;)
If you’re looking for motivation, my current creative sensibilities are telling me that light on dark is easier to read than dark on light. I’ve always been a jewel-tone/bright primary type of visual designer, but neutrals are a fantastic way to go for data consumption.
Personal choice, really. Why, do you dislike the colors? I think that is one of the strongest things about this particular presentation.
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Colors get one and a half thumbs up
They’re very nice
Go Twins!
What happened to the other half?
dare I ask
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Studes is a fan of the white background
He’s also a graph aficionado like yourself who’s been doing this since you were in diapers (not really though). I wanna see a duel! :)
by vivaelpujols on Jun 14, 2010 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair
I’m a fan of Studes.
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It reminds me of older console monitors
with light green text on dark backgrounds.
I’m also a fan of the color choices, and always heard the same things — one of my computer science teachers told us that IBM did a study in the 70s/80s on which backlit colors were the easiest on the human eyes, and came up with green on black. I’ve never actually seen the study, though.
Yep.
Though that wasn’t my inspiration, the philosophy is the same. I really just want them to stand out and be mostly functional in a thumbnail format.
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Very Cool
Thanks and if i could ask, if you could do a team breakdown for the A’s? There were so much talk this year about being smarter and faster on the bases this year and it doesnt seem like its anning out that well. i realise they are one of only 4 AL positives but only just. I think i would have expected to see a much higher number than that.
Oh, love the colours, Greens always a nice colour, though think Gold woulda made a nice contrast to see :-)
Swisher on Ellis - "every day he does something that makes me say, 'Well, I'll be damned, look at that!'"
by Mantecan As Fan on Jun 14, 2010 7:17 PM EDT reply actions
Damn spelling fail .... Panning out that well
Swisher on Ellis - "every day he does something that makes me say, 'Well, I'll be damned, look at that!'"
by Mantecan As Fan on Jun 14, 2010 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I did
the Mets, Rangers, and Rays. I noticed Oakland was at the top of another chart—let me use them for a break out?
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Considering how little the Phils are stealing bases this season...
I’d love to see this for the 2009 year.
This is the new/current account of RyanGiggs11
"College is only 4 years, but the Eagles are for life." - Ironhank
That's the abreviation that BP uses.
TBA = Tampa Bay (American)
SDN = San Diego (National)
etc.
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Really? What’s wrong with TBR and SDP. It not like some unfamiliar with baseball is gonna pick up BP.
What's strange to me is not that they use N and A. . .
. . . but that they use it while using NYY and NYM and CHC and CHW.
I don’t quite understand why they don’t all use the first team letter or the first league letter.
Not that any of this matters.
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