Is Strasburg's pitch count too low?

by lar on Jun 13, 2010 11:00 AM EDT

When Stephen Strasburg makes the second start of his career this afternoon, he'll be under the same usage limits that he ran into on Tuesday: either six innings or 95 pitches per game. Even with the dominant performance he gave us against the Pirates, manager Jim Riggleman only extended those limits to include a seventh inning, and that's only because he threw only 94 pitches. I know I was among many who were hoping Riggleman would let Strasburg come out for another inning or two, pitch counts or not. After all, how much can one game at 110 or 115 pitches really hurt the kid?

That's not how the world works when it comes to young pitchers, though. They're just too important to the future - franchises are going to do their best to protect the young arms. But are the pitch limits that we're seeing these days lower than they have been in recent history? It seems that once a pitcher gets past 100 pitches anymore, people all over - including smart people I respect - start complaining of over-use, whereas, in years past, that 100 pitch mark was merely considered the point to start worrying.

Of course, I could be very wrong. Maybe that 100-pitch mark has been a more solid ceiling than I remember. I decided to look into it. After the jump, you'll find a table looking at the average number of pitches per start for young pitchers (age 24 and younger) since 2001.

Average Number of Pitches Per Start for Young Pitchers

Year	Num Pitchers	Average Num Pitches	Standard Deviation
2001	61	91.9	8.3
2002	69	90.4	9.2
2003	51	91.5	12.6
2004	58	89.1	10.5
2005	49	92.9	8.4
2006	60	91.0	8.1
2007	67	90.4	7.9
2008	65	91.9	8.2
2009	62	92.1	7.6

As you may notice, the average number of pitches per start fluctuates a bit, from 89.1 pitcher/start in 2004 to92.1 pitches/start last year. The standard deviation, however, adjusts right along with it, keeping the upper bound at almost exactly 99 pitches/start each year. It's only the 2003 season, when Mark Prior, Joel Piniero, Carlos Zambrano, Brandon Claussen, and CC Sabathia all averaged 105 or more pitches/start (Prior averaged 113.4 pitches/start that year and Piniero averaged 109.2), that the upper bound gets significantly over 99 pitches/start.

When it comes to young pitchers then, there's no doubt that this 100 pitch limit has been a pretty hard ceiling for at least a decade. As sad as this makes me when it comes to Strasburg and my desire to see him whiff 21 Indians today, it's understandable. Fifteen to twenty years of Strasburg dominance is much more preferable than four or five, even if it ruins my need for instant gratification.

It might be interesting, though, to see if this 100 pitch ceiling for young pitchers has started to bleed over into older, more mature pitchers.

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It's very much reactionary

in my opinion. Prior, Kerry Woods and a few other high profile pitchers saw their careers seriously damaged by overuse early on and now their is too much of a swing the other way. From what I had read a few years ago (I think it was at baseball prospectus) the evidence pointed to a higher occurrence of arm injuries in pitchers who threw over 120 pitches in a game before age 25. I don’t know if these teams have newer, more thorough information, but the limit of 100 pitches seems like it is chosen for convenience sake (nice round number). There is also the innings limit (or the Verducci effect) which is certainly going to play into Strasburg’s 2010 season workload.

I think in the near future, pitch f/x will give us better information on which PITCHES cause the greatest stress and allow people to better gauge how difficult a specific start really is, beyond just the number of pitches thrown. Until then, though, better to err on the side of caution, I guess.

- Matt Sullivan
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while. - Nuke LaLoosh

by Mattsullivan on Jun 13, 2010 12:26 PM EDT reply actions

Agree with Matt on pitch types

Felix Hernandez was handled carefully but not babied to the point of frustrating an eager fantasy owner such as myself. I think the Mariners did a nice job bringing him along and if I remember correctly I think they did not let him throw his slider or made him limit the use of the slider his first couple of seasons.

This to me is the most overlooked aspect of this discussion. Innings or pitches don’t mean anything until you consider the difficulty of those innings. People have talked about long innings being more strenuous but it’s strange that the type of pitches being thrown seemingly does not enter the discussion as much as it should.

by Rich Lorenzo on Jun 13, 2010 2:43 PM EDT reply actions

I think it helps to view this through the lens of the Washington management. This kid is going to be the centerpiece of their organization for hopefully the next 10-15 years (at least). If they limit his pitch counts which allows him to maximize his efficiency, he’ll have the greatest chance of impressing people during his rookie season, and thus boost ticket sales as high as possible for next season.

I think they would also be more cautious than usual because they wouldn’t want him to throw a lot to start and then either get injured or require tommy john surgery.

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by GoPens! on Jun 13, 2010 6:26 PM EDT reply actions

How do pitch counts affect the way pitchers approach each inning?

I know if I was a pitcher, innings would be something of a badge of honor. I’d want to be a workhorse. So, if they’re on a pitch count, would this in turn train a young pitcher with workhorse aspirations to be much more efficient? Or would it cause bad habits by relying TOO much on the defense behind them?

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by adarowski on Jun 13, 2010 7:41 PM EDT reply actions

wouldn't efficiency come from reliance upon the defenders?

a one pitch ground out/fly out is much more efficient than a strikeout.

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by madpoopz on Jun 15, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Right.

I think Adam is saying that there could be concern about a pitcher maybe becoming too dependent on getting quick outs with his defense rather than missing bats, when we all know that being able to miss bats with consistency is absolutely a necessary skill for becoming a top-of-the-line pitcher.

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by Satchel Price on Jun 15, 2010 4:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions