Using True Talent to Select the 2010 All-Stars: AL Pitchers

by JinAZ on Jun 13, 2010 7:00 AM EDT in Positional Reviews

In our final installment, we turn our attention to American League pitchers. As with the NL, I'm picking 5 starters and 3 relievers.

Starting Pitchers

1st Inning: Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners
3rd Inning: Zach Greinke, Kansas City Royals
4th Inning: Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
5th Inning: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
6th Inning: Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox

Name	Org	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Cliff Lee	SEA	3.23	7.1	1.7	0.6
Zack Greinke	KCA	3.40	8.5	2.2	0.8
Justin Verlander	DET	3.61	8.7	3.0	0.8
Felix Hernandez	SEA	3.63	8.2	3.0	0.7
Jon Lester	BOS	3.69	8.5	3.1	0.7
CC Sabathia	NYA	3.70	7.7	2.4	0.9
Phil Hughes	NYA	3.72	8.6	3.2	0.9
Colby Lewis	TEX	3.79	7.9	2.4	1.0
Josh Beckett	BOS	3.83	8.3	2.3	1.0
Javier Vazquez	NYA	3.85	8.7	2.6	1.1

I could be wrong, but I don't see a lot of controversy here. Maybe some would argue about the #1 slot, but Cliff Lee's been nothing short of amazing these past three years. Greinke can't win a game, but that's hardly his fault.

I think it's interesting that three teams own 7 of the top 10 starters.

And way to be Colby Lewis, making the top-10 list despite spending the past few years in Japan! Carson Cistulli must be so proud.

Relief Pitchers

7th Inning: Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
8th Inning: Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
9th Inning: Matt Thornton, Chicago White Sox

Name	Org	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Matt Thornton	CHA	3.08	10.0	2.9	0.7
Mariano Rivera	NYA	3.23	8.8	2.1	0.8
Jonathan Papelbon	BOS	3.39	9.3	2.8	0.7
Rafael Soriano	TBA	3.50	9.3	3.1	0.8
Joakim Soria	KCA	3.55	10.0	2.8	0.9

Wait, what? Thornton, a guy not even the closer on his own team, ranks as the best reliever in the American League? That's what the projections say, folks, don't shoot the messenger. While I do know that he throws in the high-90's, I don't know a lot about his situation...haven't been following the White Sox bullpen beyond knowing that Bobby Jenks doesn't have 100% job security. He has gotten the other two non-Jenks saves this year, though. Part of it could be that he's a lefty--maybe he gets used more often in platoon-advantage situations than the closers on this list, and so his numbers look better.

The rest of the list looks about right. If I were actually managing this team, maybe I'd let Thornton throw in the 7th inning just to not upset Rivera and Papelbon. :)

And that's it folks: your true talent All Stars. It was a fun exercise. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go vote.

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Comments

Just wondering how Liriano stacked up in the standings...

FIP: 2.09
K/9: 9.71
BB/9: 2.34
HR/9: 0.22

I’m guessing his rolling projections still don’t help him catch up to the guys listed above?

by Jesse on Jun 13, 2010 11:29 AM EDT reply actions

Nope, they don't help at all.

But you could certainly argue that his 2010 performance is more meaningful than it is for the “typical” pitcher. Sort of why I posted the question about “what is a true talent level” on the front page.

Using scouting/pitch f/x data, how different is Liriano this year? (That is, I think we can more heavily weight a pitcher’s 2010 results if we find significant differences in his process. But if there’s nothing qualitatively different, we can’t use the results as proof of themselves.)

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by Sky Kalkman on Jun 13, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Consistency in fastball velocity and control,

and also a rise in GB%. He’s getting more swings at pitches outside of the strikezone. The Slider of Death isn’t quite ‘06, but it’s still 3 runs above avg per 100 pitches.

That HR:FB ratio is bound to regress, though.

by Jesse on Jun 14, 2010 7:47 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not a Pitch F/X expert, but I saw a few changes in Liriano from last season

- FB velocity is up from 91.7 to 93.5 on average
- His slider usage is up significantly, closer to the levels of 2006
- He’s getting more movement on his slider, too

But the biggest thing seems to be command, from what I can see. After putting up a 4.3 BB/9 in 2009, he’s down to just 2.3 BB/9 in 2010. And he’s done a better job of keeping the ball down in the zone, too, which has led to an increase in his GB rate from 40% to 49%, which is well above average.

He’s definitely due for some regression in his HR/FB, but he’s also got a very high .345 BABIP right now too. This is a guy whose ERA, FIP, tERA and xFIP are all under 3, and frankly I don’t consider that much of a coincidence.

I absolutely love projections, but one of their biggest flaws is that they can’t recognize when a player’s health turns for the better or when a player takes major, relatively unexpected strides. And I think that Liriano is one of those guys this season.

If he puts up a ~4 FIP the rest of the way, I’ll be disappointed.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jun 14, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Current projected FIP for Liriano is 4.04

ZiPS likes him the best (3.94), followed by CHONE (4.06) and then Oliver (4.13). Though it’s worth noting that CHONE projection is pretty good, because it seems to expect a higher run environment overall than the other two systems.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jun 13, 2010 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions

It is widely known among White Sox fans

that Matt Thornton is the best reliever on the team. He should be placed in the most high leverage situations instead of Jenks. Thornton is simply a beast and has been for almost two years now.

by TheFunkle on Jun 13, 2010 4:14 PM EDT reply actions

In 2008 he was 6th in reliever WAR in the AL

2009: 1st
2010 so far: 2nd

Not to mention in 2008 he came into a game at Wrigley and struck out the side on 12 straight fastballs. That was a crazy moment, I’ve never been so fired up before.

by TheFunkle on Jun 13, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Seriously, that guy is a beast.

Between Thornton and Marmol, here in Chicago we have two of the most fun relievers to watch in baseball. Those two can absolutely light it up.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jun 14, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I had Marmol on my fantasy team last year.

After reading this, I thought to myself, “I bet nobody has Matt Thornton in my fantasy league…” Lo and behold, someone did.

Me.

by jwiscarson on Jun 14, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions

relievers

where did Jose Valverde finishin your list?

by KalineCountry on Jun 13, 2010 5:15 PM EDT reply actions

4.11 FIP

Far enough down that I don’t really want to count.. :)

ZiPS really doesn’t like him (4.39). Oliver’s more of a fan (3.82).
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jun 13, 2010 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Surprise

Is my reaction to that. Valverde has only given up two runs in 27.1 innings. Thornton has given up 11 in 26. I know who I would give the ball to.

by rif23 on Jun 14, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions

2009? 2008?

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by Sky Kalkman on Jun 14, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Here are his recent season FIPs:

2008: 3.67
2009: 3.50
2010: 3.11

I’m not sure why his projection comes in so high. Part of it’s regression, as this is only based on ~150 IP total. But part of it probably is also league adjustment. What’s the current rule of thumb for pitchers going NL→AL? Half a run?

Also, FWIW, all three projection systems have his ERA substantially lower than the FIP I’m calculating, typically by ~1/2 run. I opted to use FIP instead of ERA to avoid letting fielding affect a pitcher, but there’s a sense in which my use of FIP might be a misuse of the projection systems, as I don’t know if they’re designed to predict FIP very well. … That said, I feel pretty good about who rose to the top using this approach.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jun 14, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions

by JinAZ on Jun 14, 2010 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, partial brain fart.

I forgot that you had projections rolled together here, and was just thinking about picking All Stars based on this year’s stats regressed against the past two seasons (or whatever).

But, are batted ball rates really that difficult to project? (he asks, ignorantly)

by jwiscarson on Jun 14, 2010 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions