Using True Talent to Select the 2010 All-Stars: AL Position Players

by JinAZ on Jun 12, 2010 7:00 AM EDT in Positional Reviews

Today we continue our look at the All Star teams using true talent estimates (projections) instead of just recent stats. As a reminder, we're using averages of rest of season ZiPS, Oliver, and CHONE. Offensive stats are park-adjusted. Fielding numbers come from Oliver, CHONE, and Steve Sommer's UZR projections. If you missed the NL, here it is: hitters & pitchers.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins

Name	wOBA	Bat	Field	RAA/700
Joe Mauer	0.398	41	5	46
Mike Napoli	0.369	24	-4	19
Jorge Posada	0.363	20	-2	18
Victor Martinez	0.356	16	-1	14
Matt Wieters	0.342	8	5	12

Duh. I did think it was interesting to see where Napoli ranked, but I think his fielding numbers might be a bit conservative (he's probably a bit worse--this is why he'll mostly be playing 1B once Mathis returns).

First Base: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

Name	wOBA	Bat	Field	RAA/700
Miguel Cabrera	0.404	45	0	45
Kevin Youkilis	0.395	40	4	44
Justin Morneau	0.388	35	1	36
Mark Teixeira	0.380	31	3	33
Carlos Pena	0.367	22	-1	21

Cabrera just edges Youkilis for the first spot. First Half Wonder Justin Morneau's projection has gone up a fair bit with his amazing first half, but it's not enough to put him in the same company as the top two. Pretty big dropoff from Big Tex down to Carlos Pena.

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox

Name	wOBA	Bat	Field	RAA/700
Dustin Pedroia	0.358	17	6	23
Robinson Cano	0.361	19	0	19
Ian Kinsler	0.359	18	1	19
Brian Roberts	0.353	14	-3	11
Chone Figgins	0.330	0	6	6

Pedroia's fielding vaults him over Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler for the starting job,.

Third Base: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays

Name	wOBA	Bat	Field	RAA/700
Evan Longoria	0.386	34	10	44
Alex Rodriguez	0.395	39	-2	38
Michael Young	0.349	11	-1	11
Maicer Izturis	0.335	3	6	9
Adrian Beltre	0.334	2	6	9

Again, it's the fielding that makes the difference here. I heart Evan Longoria, and I'd love to see him start over A-Rod this year.

Shortstop: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees

Name	wOBA	Bat	Field	RAA/700
Derek Jeter	0.355	15	-3	13
Marco Scutaro	0.333	2	5	7
Asdrubal Cabrera	0.337	4	1	5
Jason Bartlett	0.333	2	0	2
Elvis Andrus	0.324	-4	5	1

What the heck, American League? Maybe I'm just spoiled by looking at Hanley and Tulo in the senior circuit, but there isn't much SS awesomeness going on in the AL right now. Jeter wins the nod by default, with a hat tip to Marco Scutaro and the injured Asdrubal Cabrera.

Left Field: Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays

Name	wOBA	Bat	Field	RAA/700
Carl Crawford	0.355	15	9	25
Josh Hamilton	0.352	13	-1	13
Milton Bradley	0.349	11	-2	9
Jacoby Ellsbury	0.337	4	2	6
Fred Lewis	0.336	3	2	5

Hamilton's a distant second. Ellsbury's fielding might be underrated here--not sure if it's accounting for his playing LF and not CF. Fred Lewis was a modest surprise at #5.

Center Field: Curtis Granderson, New York Yankees

Name	wOBA	Bat	Field	RAA/700
Grady Sizemore	0.358	17	3	19
Curtis Granderson	0.355	15	4	19
Franklin Gutierrez	0.333	2	12	14
Torii Hunter	0.356	16	-2	14
B.J. Upton	0.342	7	6	13

Remember all the talk this offseason about whether Granderson would need to be platooned? Well, here he is, ranked as the best center fielder in the league. What? He's not #1? Well, technically he's tied, but I gave Granderson the nod given that Sizemore is out for the rest of the season. That's good, because I don't have to try to speculate on what has happened to Sizemore. In other news, Franklin Gutierrez don't get no respect.

Right Field: Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers

Name	wOBA	Bat	Field	RAA/700
Nelson Cruz	0.377	29	5	34
Shin-Soo Choo	0.376	28	0	28
Ben Zobrist	0.366	22	7	29
Nick Markakis	0.367	22	3	26
Magglio Ordonez	0.368	23	-3	21

I love how the top three players in this set are all guys who sort of came out of no where over the past few years and have proven to be stars.

Designated Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero, Texas Rangers

Name	wOBA	Bat	Field	RAA/700
Vladimir Guerrero	0.369	24	0	24
Nick Johnson	0.363	20	0	20
David Ortiz	0.362	20	0	20
Jack Cust	0.357	16	0	16
Jason Kubel	0.354	14	0	14

I forced everyone is this category's fielding to be zero, since all they are supposed to do is hit. Guerrero has had a terrific first half, which is great to see. Baseball is more fun with Vlad swinging and hitting everything thrown at him.

Last up: AL pitchers!

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Comments

B.S.

I would never use statistics that rank Dustin Pedroia higher than Robinson Cano and Nick Johnson equivalent to David Ortiz.

I don’t understand how you could possibly believe these stats are the best way to measure “true talent” – whatever that is.

by lennysyankees on Jun 12, 2010 11:48 AM EDT reply actions

Alright.

Deep breaths.

WTY's ERA+ = 137 : - / -- Kevin Frandsen > Brandon Wood??????

by Figgi4life on Jun 12, 2010 1:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I'm trying.

But this is idiotic.

by lennysyankees on Jun 12, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions

What is so idiotic about it?

As Sky said below, it’s hard to respond to this comment.

JinAZ posted the projections used to create the rankings, and went into detail about it in the NL hitters post. So, what do you take issue with?

by jwiscarson on Jun 14, 2010 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions

All I'm doing is taking averages of ZiPS, Oliver, and CHONE in-season projections

And adding in a fielding projection. It’s as simple as that.

I think the issue here is simply getting used to the idea of choosing an all-star team based on current estimates of talent rather than just first-half performance. We talked about that in the NL thread. I guess some folks like it being a first-half celebration activity. I don’t, but to each his own.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jun 14, 2010 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree.

I read through your data use, and apart from simply disagreeing with the numbers in the projections, I can’t take issue with anything here. I might think that one projection or the other is bad (or that fielding projections are borderline crystal-ball-work or something), but that doesn’t mean it’s an exercise in idiocy.

I guess I’m just trying to figure out what could’ve elicited such a response.

by jwiscarson on Jun 14, 2010 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Fair enough.

I certainly appreciate the point of this exercise, and given the methods, it’s clear why Pedroia would come out on top.

Still though, I don’t think it’s too crazy to raise an eyebrow. There’s a fine line between a break-out season and an extended hot streak, and it would be tough to capture that in this sort of projection. But so far this year, Cano has kept himself solidly in the top 3 offensive producers in the league (and at least average defensively), while Pedroia has been ok-but-certainly-not-great. It seems pretty reasonable, then, to question whether Pedroia would really deserve the start over Cano this year.

Of course, I don’t think that calls into doubt the entire methodology. It’s probably just a judgment/preference call as to whether past performance outweighs a so-so first half, or whether an apparent break-out first half should get the nod. To each his own.

Either way, I just hope Cano keeps up his crazy 11 WAR pace. If nothing else, it should help bump him up a bit in next year’s version of this post. :)

by RexManningDay on Jun 14, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

4 runs

….is within our margin of error here. It would not be an injustice to give Cano the nod.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jun 14, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not really sure how to respond to this... Not that you're "wrong", but it's not exactly a conversation opener...

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by Sky Kalkman on Jun 12, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Interesting projection there for Grady Sizemore

what with him sucking when he did play, then being out for the year.

by MikeEl on Jun 12, 2010 1:00 PM EDT reply actions

Just a reminder... (for handknit and future readers, too)

These are “true talent” numbers. They use not only what’s happened this year, but what’s happend over the past three years (weighting more recent performance more heavily). If you’re trying to predict who will play the best in the immediate future, just looking at 200 PAs or 75 IP this year will not be nearly as telling as looking at 1500 PAs or 600 IP over the past three years.

Now, Grady’s obviously a different case, because we know he won’t be playing anytime soon. But for guys like Jose Bautista or Vernon Wells, they’ve been bad so often, that we really need to temper expectations. Now, maybe we’re more likely to believe Wells’ “breakout” because he’s done this before, but that’s an interesting/difficult issue.

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by Sky Kalkman on Jun 12, 2010 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions

What position was Jose Bautista considered as for this?

(Also I find the lack of Vernon Wells in CF curious)

by handknit on Jun 12, 2010 1:15 PM EDT reply actions

Here's the info

I used Olivers position categories. They seem pretty good most of the time.

Jose Bautista is defined as a 3B here, and clocks in as a +7 hitter, -4 fielder, for +3 overall. He ranks 6th among AL 3B’s.

Vernon Wells projects as a +2 hitter, but a -7 fielder (his UZR projection was -10 runs!), for -4 overall (some rounding there). He’s 12th among AL CF’s, right behind Coco Crisp (who gets most of his value from fielding).

Sorry to be so late in replying. Been a busy weekend.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jun 13, 2010 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Sweet.

I did this. It was a lot less in-depth.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Jun 12, 2010 3:59 PM EDT reply actions

I know Rios had a horrible season last year

but it seems strange to not even see him in the top 5. Is this due to him playing in right for Toronto?

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by NYRoyal on Jan 8, 2010 8:56 AM PST

by U-God on Jun 12, 2010 5:36 PM EDT reply actions

Rios clocks in as 6th among AL CF

+6 hit, +3 field, +10 total value (rounding). He’s right behind B.J. Upton.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jun 13, 2010 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Granderson

He missed so much time, looks like his numbers were skewed for when he did play.

by Seth Walder on Jun 12, 2010 6:23 PM EDT reply actions

I'm completely avoiding playing time considerations.

That goes for both durability and time lost. Granderson’s projection is based far more on what he has done the past several years than what he has done this year.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jun 13, 2010 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Justin, a question via Twitter:

Why isn’t Swisher higher on the RF list? His ZiPS ROS projection is for a .380 wOBA (and he’s a decent enough fielder).

Where does he fall?

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by Sky Kalkman on Jun 13, 2010 11:19 AM EDT reply actions

Swisher

I have Swisher’s Zips RoS projection wOBA at 0.365. I think you (the tweeter) were looking at the Updated ZiPS projection?

Anyway, Swisher’s Zips is the most optimistic of his projections, but Chone (.359) and Oliver (.360) are very similar. Overall, that puts him as a 20 batter, -2 fielder, so +18 overall. Right there with Ordonez, although interestingly he’s three spots behind Ordonez. Ichiro is 6th (20) and J.D. Drew is 7th (+19).
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jun 13, 2010 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Brian Roberts is 2/16 on the season. He’s ranked in the top 5 above… well… anyone? Defensive wunderkid Mark Ellis for example?
Correction: I just realized this includes last season’s 2nd half as well. I see.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Jun 13, 2010 11:48 AM EDT reply actions

Right, this is his current projection

Based on the last 3-5 years of playing time, with regression to the mean, aging, etc. It doesn’t know that the guy isn’t likely to play again for well…is he going to play this season?
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Jun 13, 2010 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions