Today we continue our look at the All Star teams using true talent estimates (projections) instead of just recent stats. As a reminder, we're using averages of rest of season ZiPS, Oliver, and CHONE. Offensive stats are park-adjusted. Fielding numbers come from Oliver, CHONE, and Steve Sommer's UZR projections. If you missed the NL, here it is: hitters & pitchers.
Catcher: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
Name | wOBA | Bat | Field | RAA/700 |
Joe Mauer | 0.398 | 41 | 5 | 46 |
Mike Napoli | 0.369 | 24 | -4 | 19 |
Jorge Posada | 0.363 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
Victor Martinez | 0.356 | 16 | -1 | 14 |
Matt Wieters | 0.342 | 8 | 5 | 12 |
Duh. I did think it was interesting to see where Napoli ranked, but I think his fielding numbers might be a bit conservative (he's probably a bit worse--this is why he'll mostly be playing 1B once Mathis returns).
First Base: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
Name | wOBA | Bat | Field | RAA/700 |
Miguel Cabrera | 0.404 | 45 | 0 | 45 |
Kevin Youkilis | 0.395 | 40 | 4 | 44 |
Justin Morneau | 0.388 | 35 | 1 | 36 |
Mark Teixeira | 0.380 | 31 | 3 | 33 |
Carlos Pena | 0.367 | 22 | -1 | 21 |
Cabrera just edges Youkilis for the first spot. First Half Wonder Justin Morneau's projection has gone up a fair bit with his amazing first half, but it's not enough to put him in the same company as the top two. Pretty big dropoff from Big Tex down to Carlos Pena.
Second Base: Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
Name | wOBA | Bat | Field | RAA/700 |
Dustin Pedroia | 0.358 | 17 | 6 | 23 |
Robinson Cano | 0.361 | 19 | 0 | 19 |
Ian Kinsler | 0.359 | 18 | 1 | 19 |
Brian Roberts | 0.353 | 14 | -3 | 11 |
Chone Figgins | 0.330 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
Pedroia's fielding vaults him over Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler for the starting job,.
Third Base: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
Name | wOBA | Bat | Field | RAA/700 |
Evan Longoria | 0.386 | 34 | 10 | 44 |
Alex Rodriguez | 0.395 | 39 | -2 | 38 |
Michael Young | 0.349 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
Maicer Izturis | 0.335 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Adrian Beltre | 0.334 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
Again, it's the fielding that makes the difference here. I heart Evan Longoria, and I'd love to see him start over A-Rod this year.
Shortstop: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
Name | wOBA | Bat | Field | RAA/700 |
Derek Jeter | 0.355 | 15 | -3 | 13 |
Marco Scutaro | 0.333 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Asdrubal Cabrera | 0.337 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Jason Bartlett | 0.333 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Elvis Andrus | 0.324 | -4 | 5 | 1 |
What the heck, American League? Maybe I'm just spoiled by looking at Hanley and Tulo in the senior circuit, but there isn't much SS awesomeness going on in the AL right now. Jeter wins the nod by default, with a hat tip to Marco Scutaro and the injured Asdrubal Cabrera.
Left Field: Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays
Name | wOBA | Bat | Field | RAA/700 |
Carl Crawford | 0.355 | 15 | 9 | 25 |
Josh Hamilton | 0.352 | 13 | -1 | 13 |
Milton Bradley | 0.349 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.337 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Fred Lewis | 0.336 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Hamilton's a distant second. Ellsbury's fielding might be underrated here--not sure if it's accounting for his playing LF and not CF. Fred Lewis was a modest surprise at #5.
Center Field: Curtis Granderson, New York Yankees
Name | wOBA | Bat | Field | RAA/700 |
Grady Sizemore | 0.358 | 17 | 3 | 19 |
Curtis Granderson | 0.355 | 15 | 4 | 19 |
Franklin Gutierrez | 0.333 | 2 | 12 | 14 |
Torii Hunter | 0.356 | 16 | -2 | 14 |
B.J. Upton | 0.342 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
Remember all the talk this offseason about whether Granderson would need to be platooned? Well, here he is, ranked as the best center fielder in the league. What? He's not #1? Well, technically he's tied, but I gave Granderson the nod given that Sizemore is out for the rest of the season. That's good, because I don't have to try to speculate on what has happened to Sizemore. In other news, Franklin Gutierrez don't get no respect.
Right Field: Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers
Name | wOBA | Bat | Field | RAA/700 |
Nelson Cruz | 0.377 | 29 | 5 | 34 |
Shin-Soo Choo | 0.376 | 28 | 0 | 28 |
Ben Zobrist | 0.366 | 22 | 7 | 29 |
Nick Markakis | 0.367 | 22 | 3 | 26 |
Magglio Ordonez | 0.368 | 23 | -3 | 21 |
I love how the top three players in this set are all guys who sort of came out of no where over the past few years and have proven to be stars.
Designated Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero, Texas Rangers
Name | wOBA | Bat | Field | RAA/700 |
Vladimir Guerrero | 0.369 | 24 | 0 | 24 |
Nick Johnson | 0.363 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
David Ortiz | 0.362 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
Jack Cust | 0.357 | 16 | 0 | 16 |
Jason Kubel | 0.354 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
I forced everyone is this category's fielding to be zero, since all they are supposed to do is hit. Guerrero has had a terrific first half, which is great to see. Baseball is more fun with Vlad swinging and hitting everything thrown at him.
Last up: AL pitchers!