Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
New Blog: Along The Olentangy for Ohio State Fans!

Could Strasburg Not be the Best Rookie to Debut Last Tuesday?

What about me?

More photos » Matt Slocum - AP

What about me?

Unless you don't follow sports at all like my mom or been climbing K-2, you have seen a few hundred articles on the debut of Stephen Strasburg this last Tuesday night.  It was a night to remember and people are already comparing him to the all time greats like Walter Johnson or Roger Clemens

Lost in the shuffle was also the debut of Mike Stanton of the Florida Marlins.  Mike was tearing up AA with 21 home runs so this year and an OPS of 1.167.  He was on average the 4th rated prospect at the beginning of the season and looks right now to his way to being a star in the league.  

Stanton is not getting the hype of Strasburg, but when all is said and done, he could easily be the best player to make their debut on June 8th, 2010.  He gets the nod because he is a hitter and for that reason only.  Here are a couple reasons why.

1.  Pitchers have a greater chance of getting injured and not having a long career.  A few years back, Mark Prior was considered the best player in the draft by many people anointed him 2nd coming of Nolan Ryan.  How did that turn out for him?

Here is a list of pitchers that I could think of that started their careers on fire:

Name Year WAR Total WAR
Mark Fidrych Rookie 8.5 9.8
Dwight Gooden 2nd Year 11.7 47.6
Kerry Wood Rookie 3.7 23.6
Mark Prior 2nd Year 6.2 13.1
Roger Clemens 3rd year 7.9 128.4
Fernando Valenzuela Rookie 5.4 38.2

Some of them burned out quickly, others had decent careers and one should be a 1st ballot Hall of Famer.  A pitcher's career could be over before it begins.

2.  It it harder for pitchers to accumulate WAR compared to hitters because of the extra time missed by pitchers and the ability of hitters to accumulate WAR on a daily basis instead of every 5 days.  Of the top 100 players all time in accumulated WAR (Rally's database), 71 of the players are hitters, while only 29 are pitchers.  The lowest ranked pitcher of the one hundred iis Tom Glavine while Jim Edmonds was lowest ranked hitter.   Jim Edmonds is a really good player, but many people consider him a borderline Hall of Famer.  Tom Glavine should end up being a first ballot Hall of Famer.  Using metrics like WAR for comparison, pitchers seem to be undervalued compared to hitters.

Strasburg is the superior talent to Stanton, but Strasburg will need to keep this edge in talent and remain healthy for his entire career for it to be considered be better than a great.  I can't see in the future and know exactly what the future is going to hold, but it will be harder for great rookie pitcher like Strasburg or a good rookie hitter like Stanton.

0 recs  |  Comment 4 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

"Unless you have been climbing K-2 or my mom"

uhhhhh…I don’t know what to say, other than I think that’s not exactly how you meant to phrase that…

Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?

by Lefti on Jun 11, 2010 3:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Yea, that was bad.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jun 11, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mark "The Bird" Fidrych

Also, what does that last paragraph suppose to mean?

“Strasburg is the superior talent to Stanton, but Strasburg will need to keep this edge in talent and remain healthy for his entire career for it to be considered be better than a great. I can’t see in the future and know exactly what the future is going to hold, but it will be harder for great rookie pitcher like Strasburg or a good rookie hitter like Stanton.”

Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.

"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"The objective is that World Series ring" - The Kid

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 12, 2010 1:31 AM EDT reply actions  

My thought

I think that it is this bias towards hitters being more “valuable” that hurts teams over the long run.

According to studies by both Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times, it don’t really matter what type of offense you have in relation to going deep into the playoffs. It is pitching and defense that provides a competitive advantage to teams in the playoffs according to those studies. Don’t matter if they score tons of runs, don’t matter if they have homerun hitters up and down their lineup. Pitching and Defense.

And according to BP’s study, it is the pitchers who can strike out a lot of batters who can go further into the playoffs. Their critical metrics were K/9 for the pitching staff, high WRXL for the closer, and a strong defense. All the offensive metrics did not have a statistically significant effect on teams that went deep into the playoffs.

So, while Stanton’s WAR is most probably greater than Strasburg and he might have a longer career, it would be Strasburg, according to those two studies, who is more valuable towards going deep into the playoffs and winning the World Series.

Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.

"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"The objective is that World Series ring" - The Kid

by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jun 12, 2010 1:42 AM EDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Baseball_small
WAR By Decade: 1871-1879
Prosser_small
Cliff Lee: No longer invincible
Paige_small
Kelly Johnson Cleared Waivers; I Think That's Weird
Jeter_06_world_series_small
Top 10 players to start a franchise with revised.
Ballgame_2006_vs_texas_revised_small
The Myth of the Spoiler Returns
Small
Denard Span's Strikezone
Small
Matusz: Danks 2.0
Paige_small
I Think I Offended Juan Pierre
Leopold_butter_scotch_southpark_small
HOF/PED Quandry
Small
The Power Rank

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Sign up for the BtB Newsletter!

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Plate discipline trends
What's Wrong With Mike Pelfrey?
Lightest Players in History (min 1000 PA or 500 IP)
Statistical Head Scratchers: The Sacrifice Fly
Adam Wainwrights Curve
Jose Batista Facts
A PitchFX look at how R.A. Dickey is able to change speeds with his knuckleball to be so effective
Out Rate: a simple new upgrade on OBP
Tommy Hunter vs. Scott Feldman
Does anybody know of somewhere you can download up to date pitch-by-pitch...

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Facebook

BtB on Twitter

RSS Feed: @BtBScore

Sky: @BtB_Sky

Jeff: @jeffwzimmerman
Steve: @steve_sommer
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp
Satchel: @SatchelPrice
Adam: @baseballtwit
Larry: @wezen_ball
Peter: @CapitolAvenue
Paul: @TheDiaTribe
Daniel: @CamdenCrazies
Matt: @devil_fingers

SBNation.com Recent Stories

Chicago White Sox's Mark Teahan is congratulated by Gordon Beckham (15) after scoring on a single by A.J. Pierzynski in the second inning of a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers Monday, Sept. 6, 2010 in Detroit. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

White Sox Win Seventh In A Row On A.J. Pierzynski's 10th-Inning Single

Colorado Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez is congratulated in the dugout after scoring against the Cincinnati Reds in the third inning of a baseball game at Coors Field in Denver on Monday, Sept. 6, 2010.  (AP Photo/ Matt McClain)

Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies Stay Hot In Holiday Defeat Of Reds

NEW YORK - JULY 18:  Andy Pettitte #46 of the New York Yankees bends over prior to leaving the game in the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning on July 18 2010 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City.  (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) +6 updates

Andy Pettitte Reporting To Minors For Rehab Start Following Incident-Free Bullpen

More from SBNation.com >


Managers

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

Wbc_029_small Jeff Sullivan

Editors

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

Dayton_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Paige_small Satchel Price

Authors

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

Newavatar_small Matt Klaassen

Wezenball-logo_small lar

Big_pun--300x300_small Tommy Rancel

Adam_small adarowski

Redcap_small SFiercex4

St_louis_cardinals_ce1141_003263_small stevesommer05

Small garik16

Julio_teheran_2_small PWHjort

Cclogo_small Daniel Moroz

Closeup4_small J-Doug

Nick_cage_small The DiaTriber