BtB Power Rankings: Week 5

by JinAZ on May 5, 2010 10:39 PM EDT in Power Rankings

Week 5 on Cinco de Mayo. Here we go!

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"On Paper" Playoff Leaders

American League: E=Yankees*, C=Twins, W=Athletics, WC=Rays
National League: E=Phillies, C=Cardinals*, W=Padres, WC=Cubs*

This Week's Breakdown: The San Diego Padres

What are we to make of the Padres' hot start?

The Padres were forecast by almost all major projection systems as being at the bottom of the NL West. But so far this year, they've been the toast of their division, both in the win column and in our statistics-based rankings. All three winning percentages that we calculate--actual winning %, PythagenPat winning %, and our component w%--all have the Padres at about the same mark: .630-.649. In other words, Zach (maestro876) mentioned last week, they're winning because they are playing well, not because they're getting lucky with how they bunch together their hits.

What makes them tick? When you think of Padres teams, you typically think of pitching and fielding. This year's team is no exception. They rank 2nd in the NL in park-adjusted runs allowed, and first overall in estimated runs allowed--nearly the same total in each case (95 vs. 92 runs). They are tied for the lead in xFIP with the Giants at 3.82, so clearly the pitching so far has been awesome. Their 5 relatively no-name starters have all been solid to good, with xFIPs ranging from 3.56 (Correia) to 4.70 (Garland). Their bullpen, however, has been unreal: with the exceptions of Sean Gallagher (who has been bad) and Joe Thatcher (3.77), all of their relievers have xFIP's of 3.32 or lower. Closer Heath Bell has a 2.08 xFIP, striking out almost 14 per 9 while walking just over 3/9.

Interestingly, their position players haven't been bad either. They currently sport a combined +16 runs fielding rating (based on UZR, DRS, and catching), which is the best in the league. And their offense has been pretty solid: wOBA is 0.336 (park adjusted, with baserunning included), which is 7th overall in the league. Adrian Gonzalez has been a monster as expected, and they've received pleasantly surprising performances from Chase Headley, Will Venable, Scott Hairston, and Yorvit Torrealba.

The question, of course, is can it last? It won't come as a surprise if I say "probably not": I believe the fielding, and I can buy into the hitting, at least a little bit. But I think it's likely that the pitching slips, especially in the bullpen where there is no place to go but down. Still, I think there's a decent chance that these guys could end up with a 0.500 season. We'll see. For now, they are the kings of the West, and rank as the 4th best team (to date) in baseball.

Converting Runs to Wins

Team	G	RS	eRS	RA	eRA	W%	pW%	cW%	LgAdj	TPI
ARI	27	145	141	147	120	0.481	0.494	0.577	-3	0.552
ATL	26	106	104	112	114	0.423	0.474	0.458	-3	0.431
BAL	27	92	100	137	139	0.259	0.324	0.353	3	0.378
BOS	27	132	143	139	134	0.481	0.476	0.529	3	0.553
CHW	27	106	104	133	127	0.407	0.395	0.408	3	0.435
CHC	27	126	137	115	104	0.481	0.541	0.625	-3	0.600
CIN	27	112	105	139	121	0.481	0.396	0.436	-3	0.408
CLE	26	93	100	132	130	0.385	0.343	0.377	3	0.402
COL	27	123	121	99	121	0.481	0.598	0.502	-3	0.477
DET	28	134	149	129	123	0.571	0.518	0.591	3	0.614
FLA	26	130	124	124	121	0.500	0.523	0.515	-3	0.489
HOU	26	74	67	127	116	0.308	0.273	0.272	-3	0.246
KCR	27	108	118	135	156	0.407	0.396	0.372	3	0.394
LAD	26	141	139	148	146	0.423	0.475	0.474	-3	0.452
LAA	28	112	110	154	142	0.429	0.354	0.382	3	0.408
MIL	26	140	153	145	130	0.423	0.482	0.580	-3	0.557
MIN	27	144	153	102	108	0.667	0.657	0.659	3	0.682
NYY	26	145	151	92	116	0.692	0.704	0.622	3	0.644
NYM	27	119	114	103	129	0.556	0.567	0.444	-3	0.419
OAK	28	124	113	123	120	0.500	0.504	0.475	3	0.503
PHI	26	137	126	108	104	0.577	0.612	0.590	-3	0.564
PIT	26	90	99	179	142	0.423	0.207	0.328	-3	0.304
SDP	27	132	128	95	92	0.630	0.649	0.644	-3	0.617
SEA	26	90	83	97	110	0.423	0.466	0.376	3	0.405
SFG	25	117	122	76	94	0.600	0.685	0.618	-3	0.593
STL	27	128	134	84	100	0.667	0.683	0.629	-3	0.604
TBR	26	154	129	83	103	0.731	0.762	0.607	3	0.633
TEX	27	119	106	110	126	0.519	0.536	0.422	3	0.448
TOR	28	135	130	121	110	0.536	0.551	0.578	3	0.604
WSN	26	109	112	126	131	0.538	0.433	0.426	-3	0.401

G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals. If you don't like the league adjustment, click in the header and sort by this column.
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here).
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.

Team Offenses & Defenses

Team	RS	eRS	wOBA	OBP	SLG	wRC	EqBRR	Clutch	RA	eRA	ERA	FIP	xFIP	xFIPrns	Field	Catch	BABIP
ARI	145	141	0.348	0.348	0.469	142	-2	9	147	120	5.50	5.01	4.49	126	7	-3	0.319
ATL	106	104	0.315	0.336	0.353	104	0	-13	112	114	4.07	4.00	4.23	112	1	1	0.285
BAL	92	100	0.306	0.307	0.385	100	0	-7	137	139	4.58	4.57	4.68	130	-14	3	0.313
BOS	132	143	0.348	0.345	0.461	144	-1	-9	139	134	4.76	4.41	4.53	132	-4	-2	0.307
CHW	106	104	0.313	0.311	0.396	104	0	-2	133	127	4.84	4.08	4.33	122	-3	1	0.305
CHC	126	137	0.345	0.350	0.445	138	-1	-27	115	104	3.95	3.75	3.84	107	-6	2	0.311
CIN	112	105	0.307	0.314	0.384	102	3	21	139	121	5.24	4.36	4.23	120	3	0	0.325
CLE	93	100	0.310	0.326	0.353	100	0	3	132	130	4.38	4.99	4.93	134	10	-2	0.290
COL	123	121	0.324	0.337	0.422	119	3	-13	99	121	3.75	3.96	4.37	124	6	1	0.293
DET	134	149	0.349	0.359	0.432	150	-1	21	129	123	4.29	3.94	4.27	123	-7	-1	0.312
FLA	130	124	0.328	0.333	0.405	119	5	5	124	121	4.33	3.83	4.12	114	-12	1	0.306
HOU	74	67	0.276	0.283	0.322	66	1	3	127	116	4.28	3.83	4.17	112	-3	2	0.321
KCR	108	118	0.328	0.331	0.417	122	-4	-4	135	156	4.81	4.63	4.91	141	-23	-1	0.311
LAD	141	139	0.346	0.345	0.440	139	0	-1	148	146	4.86	4.38	4.57	125	-20	-4	0.314
LAA	112	110	0.321	0.321	0.398	114	-4	-4	154	142	5.25	4.85	4.46	129	-12	-3	0.322
MIL	140	153	0.359	0.356	0.449	155	-1	-13	145	130	5.12	4.65	4.15	113	-18	-2	0.332
MIN	144	153	0.356	0.364	0.440	154	-1	-7	102	108	3.64	3.60	4.03	116	2	4	0.312
NYY	145	151	0.364	0.362	0.455	151	1	4	92	116	3.38	4.02	4.30	114	2	-2	0.264
NYM	119	114	0.315	0.315	0.376	109	5	-4	103	129	3.49	4.09	4.46	130	-3	1	0.299
OAK	124	113	0.316	0.320	0.371	112	1	3	123	120	4.11	4.22	4.22	121	1	1	0.291
PHI	137	126	0.336	0.339	0.438	127	-2	16	108	104	4.11	4.31	3.98	108	4	1	0.306
PIT	90	99	0.309	0.310	0.367	100	-1	16	179	142	6.60	5.33	4.75	128	-10	-2	0.331
SDP	132	128	0.336	0.331	0.385	127	0	3	95	92	2.89	3.68	3.82	109	12	4	0.280
SEA	90	83	0.295	0.309	0.327	85	-2	10	97	110	3.28	4.07	4.47	123	23	-4	0.278
SFG	117	122	0.338	0.344	0.428	122	0	-2	76	94	2.82	3.33	3.82	103	9	-2	0.268
STL	128	134	0.337	0.340	0.430	134	0	3	84	100	2.56	3.35	3.94	115	12	3	0.268
TBR	154	129	0.340	0.341	0.426	129	0	7	83	103	2.97	4.03	4.14	116	14	0	0.263
TEX	119	106	0.307	0.317	0.369	101	5	17	110	126	3.57	4.47	4.66	134	6	0	0.282
TOR	135	130	0.335	0.310	0.458	131	-1	2	121	110	4.17	3.67	3.87	114	10	0	0.298
WSN	109	112	0.327	0.331	0.410	115	-3	5	126	131	4.71	4.89	4.93	136	2	1	0.296

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA = The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics. We report this in runs.

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: tRuns - Field - Catch
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs. Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average. xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = The average of team UZR and team DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately).
Catch = Catcher Fielding Runs, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference. The methods are essentially those described here. But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater precision.
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play. Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although chance events can have effects as well.

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Comments

Oooh. Tigers at No. 5

I like these more and more Justin!

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on May 5, 2010 10:45 PM EDT reply actions

It's funny how that works. :)

My Reds are up considerably this week too. Nice to see.

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on May 6, 2010 6:39 AM EDT up reply actions

We'll be dropping, though.

Got swept by the Twins yesterday.

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

Now I write at Bless You Boys.

Like music? See what I'm listening to at my Last.fm account.

by Mike Rogers on May 6, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

And the Giants start their free-fall...

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by Sky Kalkman on May 6, 2010 7:02 AM EDT reply actions

Their TPI is actually up this week

Just wasn’t up enough to maintain their spot.

Free-falling are the Angels. I guess a 6-game losing streak will do that, especially when you get beat like they did on Monday.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201005030.shtml
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on May 6, 2010 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Sky, you are always so objective

An impressive trait in a stat-hound.

"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.

by hairball on May 6, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't feel comfortable with the Giants ranked this high. I don't know how to handle positive comments from Giants fans ; )

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by Sky Kalkman on May 6, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I appreciate the look at the Padres.

I’d argue that the pitching is a real strength for them. Certainly some guys are throwing over their heads—no one expects Jon Garland and Wade LeBlanc to have sub-2.00 ERAs. On the flip side, Kevin Correia is performing about exactly as well as you’d expect him to (even a little worse, as he’s gotten a bit unlucky with the home run ball) and Mat Latos is severely under-performing. Clayton Richard’s ERA may be somewhat low (3.34), but it is in line with his FIP (3.30) so I wouldn’t expect it to go too much higher.

I can assure you that the bullpen is for real though—last year they were 4th in all baseball in FIP and xFIP, and that was including a bunch of garbage innings early in the season thrown by waiver wire trash who were gone by the end of the year. Pretty much everyone in the pen right now is a proven arm, especially Gregerson, Adams, and Bell who are near unhittable. It may be true that there’s nowhere to go but down, but I don’t think there’s that far down to go.

"It is a truth universally acknowledged that a zombie in possession of brains must be in want of more brains."
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.

by Zach (maestro876) on May 6, 2010 2:05 PM EDT reply actions

Plus no one else in the NL West is that good either

especially when you consider how far over their heads the Giants are hitting. The Padres have at as much of a chance to win that division as anyone else, or snag the Wild Card.

"It is a truth universally acknowledged that a zombie in possession of brains must be in want of more brains."
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.

by Zach (maestro876) on May 6, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Not if the Rockies can get their act together

And Richard’s going to decline, for sure. He’s pitching better than last season, but he’s got a pretty big platoon split for his career and he has some issues with walks. He’s probably good for a low-to-mid 4’s FIP/ERA, but not much more than that.

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I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on May 6, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Entirely possible.

Though the Rockies are going to have to avoid digging themselves into too great a hole while De La Rosa is hurt and Cook tries to figure himself out.

We can argue about Richard and you’re right about the platoon split and the walks. I see him as about a 2 WAR pitcher (last year he was 1.5 over about 150 IP, with over half those innings in the AL away from friendly Petco Park).

My point is that the division is pretty wide open and I don’t think anyone is going to run away with it—Colorado, Los Angeles, San Francisco, or San Diego. Colorado can’t depend on being able to climb out of big deficits every season.

"It is a truth universally acknowledged that a zombie in possession of brains must be in want of more brains."
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.

by Zach (maestro876) on May 6, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions