BtB Power Rankings: Week 5

Week 5 on Cinco de Mayo.  Here we go!

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"On Paper" Playoff Leaders

American League: E=Yankees*, C=Twins, W=Athletics, WC=Rays
National League: E=Phillies, C=Cardinals*, W=Padres, WC=Cubs*

This Week's Breakdown: The San Diego Padres


What are we to make of the Padres' hot start?

The Padres were forecast by almost all major projection systems as being at the bottom of the NL West. But so far this year, they've been the toast of their division, both in the win column and in our statistics-based rankings.  All three winning percentages that we calculate--actual winning %, PythagenPat winning %, and our component w%--all have the Padres at about the same mark: .630-.649.  In other words, Zach (maestro876) mentioned last week, they're winning because they are playing well, not because they're getting lucky with how they bunch together their hits.

What makes them tick?  When you think of Padres teams, you typically think of pitching and fielding.  This year's team is no exception.  They rank 2nd in the NL in park-adjusted runs allowed, and first overall in estimated runs allowed--nearly the same total in each case (95 vs. 92 runs).  They are tied for the lead in xFIP with the Giants at 3.82, so clearly the pitching so far has been awesome.  Their 5 relatively no-name starters have all been solid to good, with xFIPs ranging from 3.56 (Correia) to 4.70 (Garland).  Their bullpen, however, has been unreal: with the exceptions of Sean Gallagher (who has been bad) and Joe Thatcher (3.77), all of their relievers have xFIP's of 3.32 or lower.  Closer Heath Bell has a 2.08 xFIP, striking out almost 14 per 9 while walking just over 3/9.  

Interestingly, their position players haven't been bad either.  They currently sport a combined +16 runs fielding rating (based on UZR, DRS, and catching), which is the best in the league.  And their offense has been pretty solid: wOBA is 0.336 (park adjusted, with baserunning included), which is 7th overall in the league.  Adrian Gonzalez has been a monster as expected, and they've received pleasantly surprising performances from Chase Headley, Will Venable, Scott Hairston, and Yorvit Torrealba.

The question, of course, is can it last?  It won't come as a surprise if I say "probably not": I believe the fielding, and I can buy into the hitting, at least a little bit.  But I think it's likely that the pitching slips, especially in the bullpen where there is no place to go but down.  Still, I think there's a decent chance that these guys could end up with a 0.500 season.  We'll see.  For now, they are the kings of the West, and rank as the 4th best team (to date) in baseball.


Converting Runs to Wins

Team G RS eRS RA eRA W% pW% cW% LgAdj TPI
ARI 27 145 141 147 120 0.481 0.494 0.577 -3 0.552
ATL 26 106 104 112 114 0.423 0.474 0.458 -3 0.431
BAL 27 92 100 137 139 0.259 0.324 0.353 3 0.378
BOS 27 132 143 139 134 0.481 0.476 0.529 3 0.553
CHW 27 106 104 133 127 0.407 0.395 0.408 3 0.435
CHC 27 126 137 115 104 0.481 0.541 0.625 -3 0.600
CIN 27 112 105 139 121 0.481 0.396 0.436 -3 0.408
CLE 26 93 100 132 130 0.385 0.343 0.377 3 0.402
COL 27 123 121 99 121 0.481 0.598 0.502 -3 0.477
DET 28 134 149 129 123 0.571 0.518 0.591 3 0.614
FLA 26 130 124 124 121 0.500 0.523 0.515 -3 0.489
HOU 26 74 67 127 116 0.308 0.273 0.272 -3 0.246
KCR 27 108 118 135 156 0.407 0.396 0.372 3 0.394
LAD 26 141 139 148 146 0.423 0.475 0.474 -3 0.452
LAA 28 112 110 154 142 0.429 0.354 0.382 3 0.408
MIL 26 140 153 145 130 0.423 0.482 0.580 -3 0.557
MIN 27 144 153 102 108 0.667 0.657 0.659 3 0.682
NYY 26 145 151 92 116 0.692 0.704 0.622 3 0.644
NYM 27 119 114 103 129 0.556 0.567 0.444 -3 0.419
OAK 28 124 113 123 120 0.500 0.504 0.475 3 0.503
PHI 26 137 126 108 104 0.577 0.612 0.590 -3 0.564
PIT 26 90 99 179 142 0.423 0.207 0.328 -3 0.304
SDP 27 132 128 95 92 0.630 0.649 0.644 -3 0.617
SEA 26 90 83 97 110 0.423 0.466 0.376 3 0.405
SFG 25 117 122 76 94 0.600 0.685 0.618 -3 0.593
STL 27 128 134 84 100 0.667 0.683 0.629 -3 0.604
TBR 26 154 129 83 103 0.731 0.762 0.607 3 0.633
TEX 27 119 106 110 126 0.519 0.536 0.422 3 0.448
TOR 28 135 130 121 110 0.536 0.551 0.578 3 0.604
WSN 26 109 112 126 131 0.538 0.433 0.426 -3 0.401

G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals.  If you don't like the league adjustment, click in the header and sort by this column.
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here).
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.

Team Offenses & Defenses


Team RS eRS wOBA OBP SLG wRC EqBRR Clutch RA eRA ERA FIP xFIP xFIPrns Field Catch BABIP
ARI 145 141 0.348 0.348 0.469 142 -2 9 147 120 5.50 5.01 4.49 126 7 -3 0.319
ATL 106 104 0.315 0.336 0.353 104 0 -13 112 114 4.07 4.00 4.23 112 1 1 0.285
BAL 92 100 0.306 0.307 0.385 100 0 -7 137 139 4.58 4.57 4.68 130 -14 3 0.313
BOS 132 143 0.348 0.345 0.461 144 -1 -9 139 134 4.76 4.41 4.53 132 -4 -2 0.307
CHW 106 104 0.313 0.311 0.396 104 0 -2 133 127 4.84 4.08 4.33 122 -3 1 0.305
CHC 126 137 0.345 0.350 0.445 138 -1 -27 115 104 3.95 3.75 3.84 107 -6 2 0.311
CIN 112 105 0.307 0.314 0.384 102 3 21 139 121 5.24 4.36 4.23 120 3 0 0.325
CLE 93 100 0.310 0.326 0.353 100 0 3 132 130 4.38 4.99 4.93 134 10 -2 0.290
COL 123 121 0.324 0.337 0.422 119 3 -13 99 121 3.75 3.96 4.37 124 6 1 0.293
DET 134 149 0.349 0.359 0.432 150 -1 21 129 123 4.29 3.94 4.27 123 -7 -1 0.312
FLA 130 124 0.328 0.333 0.405 119 5 5 124 121 4.33 3.83 4.12 114 -12 1 0.306
HOU 74 67 0.276 0.283 0.322 66 1 3 127 116 4.28 3.83 4.17 112 -3 2 0.321
KCR 108 118 0.328 0.331 0.417 122 -4 -4 135 156 4.81 4.63 4.91 141 -23 -1 0.311
LAD 141 139 0.346 0.345 0.440 139 0 -1 148 146 4.86 4.38 4.57 125 -20 -4 0.314
LAA 112 110 0.321 0.321 0.398 114 -4 -4 154 142 5.25 4.85 4.46 129 -12 -3 0.322
MIL 140 153 0.359 0.356 0.449 155 -1 -13 145 130 5.12 4.65 4.15 113 -18 -2 0.332
MIN 144 153 0.356 0.364 0.440 154 -1 -7 102 108 3.64 3.60 4.03 116 2 4 0.312
NYY 145 151 0.364 0.362 0.455 151 1 4 92 116 3.38 4.02 4.30 114 2 -2 0.264
NYM 119 114 0.315 0.315 0.376 109 5 -4 103 129 3.49 4.09 4.46 130 -3 1 0.299
OAK 124 113 0.316 0.320 0.371 112 1 3 123 120 4.11 4.22 4.22 121 1 1 0.291
PHI 137 126 0.336 0.339 0.438 127 -2 16 108 104 4.11 4.31 3.98 108 4 1 0.306
PIT 90 99 0.309 0.310 0.367 100 -1 16 179 142 6.60 5.33 4.75 128 -10 -2 0.331
SDP 132 128 0.336 0.331 0.385 127 0 3 95 92 2.89 3.68 3.82 109 12 4 0.280
SEA 90 83 0.295 0.309 0.327 85 -2 10 97 110 3.28 4.07 4.47 123 23 -4 0.278
SFG 117 122 0.338 0.344 0.428 122 0 -2 76 94 2.82 3.33 3.82 103 9 -2 0.268
STL 128 134 0.337 0.340 0.430 134 0 3 84 100 2.56 3.35 3.94 115 12 3 0.268
TBR 154 129 0.340 0.341 0.426 129 0 7 83 103 2.97 4.03 4.14 116 14 0 0.263
TEX 119 106 0.307 0.317 0.369 101 5 17 110 126 3.57 4.47 4.66 134 6 0 0.282
TOR 135 130 0.335 0.310 0.458 131 -1 2 121 110 4.17 3.67 3.87 114 10 0 0.298
WSN 109 112 0.327 0.331 0.410 115 -3 5 126 131 4.71 4.89 4.93 136 2 1 0.296

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics.  We report this in runs.

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: tRuns - Field - Catch
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs.  Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average.  xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = The average of team UZR and team DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately).
Catch = Catcher Fielding Runs, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference.  The methods are essentially those described here.  But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater precision.
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play.  Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although chance events can have effects as well.

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