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Should we believe in Cano?


First time poster here.  I write a lot on rootzoo when I'm bored at work, but that site lacks great baseball minds.  I'm no Yankee expert by any means, but I wanted to take a look at some of the Cano stats because there has been so much talk about him so far this season. It seems like tons of experts are raving about his game, he's receiving that "mvp" talk already, and has made a number of excellent looking defensive plays.

Is he really this good?

The 27 year old Cano makes 9 million dollars this season, is set to make 10 next, and has club options for 14 & 15 million in the 2012 & 2013 seasons. Cano is currently at 1.5 WAR in just 24 games played, which is nearly half of the 3.1 WAR he has averaged per season over the last four. To financially make sense out of his 2010 season, Cano would only need to accumulate just over 1 more WAR @ 3.5mm per WAR. Barring epic injury Cano will be well worth the $.

Cano is a career .309/.342/.488 hitter with a wRC+ of 117. He walks 4.4% of the time while striking out 11.8% of the time. UZR suggests that he is a slightly below average defender. I can't access Dewan's +/- numbers for Cano, but would have to imagine they are pretty close to being on par with UZR. Cano has some flashy plays, but is just about an average to slightly below average defender right now.

Has Cano been lucky this season? Yes, of course, but just how lucky?

Cano's career babip is .322 while his babip this season is at .365. This makes sense considering his LD% is up, and his GB% is down. Could he possibly sustain this? Its possible, but some form of regression is likely.

Cano is batting .387/.433. Is it sustainable?   No, of course not, although i could see him hitting .330/.370 this season.

He already has 9 hr this season while compiling a career high of 25 last season. Not only is he hitting more LD than ever, but he is also hitting more FB than ever, at a 37.3% clip. His HR/FB ratio is at 29% this year, more than double his career number of 11.7%. Unless he is eating what Ryan Howard is eating all of a sudden, this as well is unsustainable.

The two things that stand out to me about how his hitting as well is that he is swinging at a higher rate of pitches outside the zone, 34.3% than his career norm 30.9%. His F Swing% or fist pitch strike percentage is also at a career low of 54.8% down nearly 8% from his career norm, which partially explains his career high walk percentage of 7.7%.

Cano proved to us in the past few seasons that he can reach the 4+ WAR plateau when healthy while putting up solid offensive numbers. He's improving and is on pace for near career numbers all across the board. He is lucky in some ways, ie. babip, FB/HR ratio, ect., but it is evident that Cano is the real deal and at 27 should be in for a real real good season. MVP, probably not, the most productive season of his career, it's possible.

Thoughts???

Poll
Robinson Can will post a WAR of what in 2010?
Under 3
12 votes
3.1-4.0
27 votes
4.1-5.0
83 votes
5.1=6.0
60 votes
6.1+
32 votes

214 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 19 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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I think that Cano can be a 5+ fWAR player, he's a really great player

He’s hitting for more power and patience than ever before this season, and he’s come close to the 5 WAR plateau twice in the past.

Oh, and as for DRS, Cano’s -9 for his career, but +16 in the past three years and +1 so far this season. He might be a little better than UZR indicates.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on May 3, 2010 3:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Cano's defense

I get a feeling that Cano is portrayed as an excellent defender by many basic fans because of the pretty looking plays he gets credit for on espn. Probably not much better than average at this point, but definitely room for improvement considering his age.

by dougbies on May 3, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I must be on the opposite end of things.

I always thought he was average to ten runs worse than average. But it appears he’s at least average from the data.

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by Sky Kalkman on May 3, 2010 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I thought of his defense as a liability for a long time too.

Which probably has something to do with his awful numbers and early reputation from the beginning of his career. The past few years he appears to have developed into at least an average defender, which makes him a pretty damn good player at second.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on May 3, 2010 6:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

as an observer

he has plus defense talents (nice lateral range and amazing arm strength) but uninspiring consistency, he’s going to wow you with some amazing play one day then boot a couple routine groundball the next.

so he’s a wildly flucating case, can be anywhere from great to bad.

by RollingWave on May 4, 2010 1:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Good post, obviously a lot of thought behind it.

But seriously…grammatical mistakes are driving me off the wall.

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on May 3, 2010 3:44 PM EDT reply actions  

Sorry for sloppy grammar

Sorry for the sloppy grammar. I’ll proof read my posts much better in the future. I was just kind of sick of getting minimal responses on other sites and wanted some feedback from the experts.

by dougbies on May 3, 2010 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Understandable, but...

Why don’t you fix some of the more glaring erros now?

by themastah on May 3, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Done

Didn’t realize i could edit it after the initial post. I have too many run ons, but will work on fixing that next time.

by dougbies on May 3, 2010 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

DRS says he is +1

UZR on fangraphs is a little outdated I think (it’s been a couple weeks since it has been updated) unless I’m mistaken.

by benderbrodriguez on May 3, 2010 6:42 PM EDT reply actions  

UZR Update

fangraphs supposedly updates uzr every Sunday night, but i’m not sure how perfect they are at this yet.

by dougbies on May 3, 2010 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well

The numbers haven’t changed in a couple of weeks for the few players I look at (Rays players)

by benderbrodriguez on May 3, 2010 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Power rate

HR% isn’t exactly a reliable indicator of ability going foward, sure you can tell that Ryan Howard will hit more homeruns than David Eckstien, but sometimes big HR season simply happens. Aaron Hill last year was a fine example, as was Bond’s crazy year (if you want to whine about the PED then you can sub this with Roger Maris’ big year)

Sometimes those few extra bombs that woulda went for deep outs sneak past, or you end up getting more hanging breaking balls / dead red fastballs / weak change ups in particular year than normal distribution.

You can say that he’s LIKELY to average around 20ish HR a year, but there’s certainly a chance of him suddenly throwing up a crooked 40+ HR season. it happens all the time.

As for Cano, it’s pretty obvious he’s always had very high talents, though his skill set makes him more luck prone (or simply for likely to flucate) than other players of similar caliber.

He’s a good candidate to gamble on big years really, he’s kinda lost in the midst of all of big names on the team (especially that absurd infield) but really his overall talent level might be pretty much on par with the group (which is saying a lot, since there’s 2 sure fired HOFer and a pretty interesting borderline case there, along with another guy who might have a chance of putting up a decent case)

by RollingWave on May 4, 2010 2:09 AM EDT reply actions  

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