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32 Predictions Contest, v.2010

Reminder: you have until midnight tonight (PDT) to enter.  Good luck!

It's baaaaack.  My favorite contest, invented by an old differential equations professor of mine -- don't worry, arithmetic is the only math skill this contest requires -- returns for a second season at BtB.  Same rules as last year, with three important differences:

  1. We're putting a $50 prize on the table, payable in full to the winner (none of this rewarding-second-place crap.)  Please read our official entry rules, written by a real lawyer, and which you acknowledge by submitting an entry.
  2. Mike Fast, as defending champion, has a lot more pressure on him this year.  Personally, I think he'll crumble like Brad Lidge.
  3. There is an open-ended tie-breaker question at the end, touching on three recent performance mysteries.  If this doesn't break the tie, the winner will be whoever submitted their ballot first.

Here's how this thing works, as explained by the previously linked-to Professor Doug Drinen:

Below you will find 32 pairs of numbers. In each case, you tell me which number will be bigger. One point for each correct answer. Most points wins.

Ties — and I expect there to be a nontrivial number of them — go to the side that had fewer votes. For example, here is a pair of numbers:

Wins by the Yankees
Wins by the Red Sox

Let’s say 41 people take the Yankees and 54 take the Red Sox. If the Yankees and Red Sox end up with the same number of wins, then each Yankee-backer will get a point and each Red Sox-backer will not.

To be eligible for the prize, you need to submit your ballot by midnight PDT on Friday, May 7th.

If you are not a member of Beyond the Box Score, you'll need to create a free account (you can even use your Facebook ID, Yahoo ID or an Open ID.)

The 32 questions are embedded after the jump.  Good luck!

Star-divide

New to Beyond the Box Score?  Like what you see?  How about subscribing to the RSS feed, becoming a fan on Facebook, or following @BtB_Sky on Twitter.

New: Sign up for the free BtB Newsletter!

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A clarification

So we’re going strickly by biggest, i.e. for the ERA ones we’re going for the larger ERA, not the better? Thanks!

by soup du jour on May 3, 2010 1:58 PM EDT reply actions  

So Sky, who did you pick on the Sky vs. Mom question?

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on May 3, 2010 2:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Logically, Sky should pick himself.

The only scenario in which picking Mom helps is if on the first 31 questions, Mom is in first, Sky is in second, and Mom picks Sky on this question. Then Sky can win if he hits the tiebreaker. In all other situations, he is best served by picking himself. Ditto for Mom, who should pick herself.

For the rest of us, the choice is not so easy.

by RedRobot8 on May 3, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I'm ready

to finish in last

Beadlemaniacs - Award winning* college basketball blog (new and improved!)
College Hockey!

by fetch9 on May 3, 2010 3:25 PM EDT reply actions  

OK maybe it's my browser

I completed the selections but there is no “Enter” or “Post” visible?

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -

"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce

by Ed Coffin on May 3, 2010 3:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Thanks, no luck

will have to come back late night after my regular stuff is shut down, and use either Firefox or Opera. (I’m trying out Lunascape6, which combines the three most popular engines – it awesome fast, a little more resource comsumptive than Opera, and basically a winner, unless add-ons from other browsers get omitted). Later!

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -

"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce

by Ed Coffin on May 3, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oops

Using the mouse wheel DID work. Thanks!

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -

"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce

by Ed Coffin on May 3, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm happy to

I really enjoyed filling this out. The Yuni/Pujols one made my laugh out loud. As did the Dunn/Gutierrez one.

by jmantemp on May 3, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I pimped this on my company baseball mailing list

but I don’t know how many referrals that generated.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on May 7, 2010 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mauer AVG vs. Ramirez OBP

I liked that one a lot. Mark Reynolds Ks vs. HR*5 was good too!

Jobu needs a refill

by lightbulb on May 3, 2010 4:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Very cool, Sky.

And yeah, the UZR Gutierrez/Dunn question was hilarious.

The selfish, they're all standing in line, faithing and hoping to buy themselves time.
Me, I figure as each breath goes by, I only own my mind.

by danmerqury on May 3, 2010 4:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Midnight Friday. Pacific.

All the entries are time-stamped when they show up in the Google Doc, so I’ll know!

Beyond the Box Score Not a member of our saber-slanted community? Sign up here.

by Sky Kalkman on May 3, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Will you tell us who won on Saturday?

Or do you refuse to use your baseball vision crystals for this purpose?

from Cubs Stats and Twitter @BradleyWoodrum

by BWoodrum on May 4, 2010 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

You can't just toss around usage of baseball vision crystals willy nilly, dude. Jeez.

I do plan on sharing the popularity of each answer choice next week, plus my ballot and my mother’s ballot. Looking at things (my official ballot has already been submitted), I don’t think any option was chosen by fewer than 20% of respondents, which is surprising. Lots in the 40-60% range.

Maybe I’ll have a post where we can debate some of the questions. Personally (and it helps that I created the questions and looked up a lot of numbers) I think the masses are going to be pretty wrong on a couple of them.

Beyond the Box Score Not a member of our saber-slanted community? Sign up here.

by Sky Kalkman on May 4, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, you mean you actually thought through your answers?

I went with a mix of gut feel and pure unabashed guessing.

by Dan Turkenkopf on May 4, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Crap, I thought I was the only one using that method.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on May 7, 2010 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Nicely done

I answered the q’s and submitted, but then saw the join BTB at the bottom. Hope it goes through.

by enigma2029 on May 3, 2010 7:32 PM EDT reply actions  

you guys say such hurtful things to poor mets fans

I laughed out loud when I saw question 4. Then I cried when i realized I wasn’t sure which to pick.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on May 3, 2010 8:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Q18
Most HBP by any one player

hitter or pitcher?

by atl192485 on May 3, 2010 10:23 PM EDT reply actions  

Hitter

Beyond the Box Score Not a member of our saber-slanted community? Sign up here.

by Sky Kalkman on May 4, 2010 6:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks Sky, this is fantastic.

the rarely posting Portland A's fan formerly known as kidlondon.

by yusebio on May 5, 2010 6:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Great Questions!

Been reading the site for a while now, but havent actually signed up ’til now (to enter the contest!).
Thanks Sky, it was a lot of fun to answer the questions.

by The Laser Show on May 6, 2010 2:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Made in just under the deadline

I almost forgot. Is that like Lidge?

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 8, 2010 1:41 AM EDT reply actions  

I wasn't sure what this meant in Question 27

“Shutouts thrown by any non-Phillies team’s starters”

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 8, 2010 12:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Making excuses already, eh?

I meant Halladay vs. all the starters on any other team.

Nice sig, well earned.

Beyond the Box Score Not a member of our saber-slanted community? Sign up here.

by Sky Kalkman on May 8, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

I voted for the the field

In fact, I’d wager that the starting pitching fo the Cardinals throws more shutouts than Halladay. Chris Carpenter is basically Halladay light, except for the durability of course.

by vivaelpujols on May 8, 2010 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

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