BtB Power Rankings: Week 8

Toprank-052610_medium

Allrank-052610_medium

"On Paper" Playoff Leaders (based on rankings above)

American League: E=Yankees, C=Twins, W=Rangers, WC=Rays
National League: E=Phillies, C=Cardinals, W=Padres, WC=Diamondbacks*

This Week's Feature: The Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks had a nice week, winning 4 of 6 and scoring 8+ runs on four consecutive nights, starting with a 13-1 crushing last Wednesday.  This vaulted them into the on-paper wild card slot, taking over the slot previously held by the victim of their 13-1 victory, the Giants.  It also propelled them just ahead of the Cincinnati Reds, who also had a good week and now are suddenly ranked 12th overall in the power rankings.  

This may seems surprising, because going into play tonight, the Diamondbacks are 20-26 (.435 W%), last in the NL West.  And their Pythagenpat winning % is almost exactly the same (.432 pW%).  And yet our component winning percentage, which feeds into the Team Performance Index that determines the ranking, estimates their expected winning percentage at .559!  Obviously an enormous difference.

What's going on?  The component-based estimated runs scored is pretty similar to reality, 228 actual vs. 220 expected (after park adjustments).  If anything, maybe the offense has overachieved, if only slightly.  What is driving the difference is a massive, huge, enormous difference in expected runs allowed: 262 actual vs. just 195 estimated!  

The Diamondbacks pitchers collectively have an awful 5.71 ERA.  This is despite playing in front of what our fielding statistics tell us is the third-best set of gloves in the National League (+16 runs).  Their FIP is better at 5.16--but still not good.  But their tERA (via statcorner.com) is 4.66.  And their xFIP is just 4.45.  That's not world-beating, but it's respectable--and a 1.26 run per 9 game  better than their ERA.  The biggest factor in all of this appears to be their team home runs per fly ball, which is currently a ridiculous 14.9%.  There is such thing as HR/F skill, but it's typically masked by volatility...and at the team level, and just can't imagine that this is indicating anything other than a lot of bad luck with the long ball.

Staff ace Dan Haren more or less typifies the Diamondback staff.  He has a 4.79 ERA, but a 4.06 FIP and a miniscule 3.18 xFIP right now.  Haren's problems have been high BABIP (0.346) and a 16.9% HR/FB ratio, but probably not anything to do with how he's actually throwing the ball.

None of this is to say that the Diamondbacks are going to play like a 0.556 team over the rest of the season.  But my guess is that they are likely to play better than they have.

Converting Runs to Wins

Team G RS eRS RA eRA W% pW% cW% xtW LgAdj TPI
ARI 46 228 220 262 195 0.435 0.432 0.559 85 -6 0.532
ATL 45 208 203 188 199 0.511 0.548 0.508 82 -6 0.482
BAL 46 166 179 224 237 0.326 0.365 0.373 58 6 0.397
BOS 47 234 239 224 216 0.553 0.520 0.549 89 6 0.574
CHW 45 182 177 208 200 0.422 0.438 0.442 71 6 0.470
CHC 46 198 204 200 188 0.478 0.496 0.536 84 -6 0.509
CIN 46 216 223 211 202 0.565 0.513 0.548 90 -6 0.523
CLE 44 172 181 220 219 0.386 0.387 0.412 66 5 0.437
COL 45 194 198 173 205 0.511 0.551 0.486 80 -6 0.460
DET 45 200 218 196 201 0.556 0.509 0.538 88 6 0.562
FLA 46 218 214 194 195 0.522 0.555 0.542 87 -6 0.516
HOU 45 134 111 213 197 0.333 0.304 0.263 46 -6 0.237
KCR 46 196 206 230 250 0.391 0.425 0.409 66 6 0.433
LAD 45 231 228 221 226 0.556 0.522 0.504 84 -6 0.480
LAA 48 210 187 247 239 0.458 0.422 0.386 66 6 0.412
MIL 45 236 251 261 237 0.400 0.452 0.527 80 -6 0.505
MIN 45 220 234 178 181 0.578 0.598 0.616 99 6 0.640
NYY 45 248 257 183 182 0.578 0.643 0.659 104 6 0.681
NYM 46 209 204 191 214 0.500 0.543 0.478 78 -6 0.452
OAK 46 179 175 195 200 0.500 0.460 0.439 74 6 0.467
PHI 44 220 216 171 184 0.591 0.617 0.574 94 -5 0.549
PIT 46 158 167 269 234 0.435 0.267 0.345 60 -6 0.320
SDP 45 208 199 158 160 0.600 0.622 0.599 97 -6 0.571
SEA 45 161 154 189 192 0.378 0.429 0.402 64 6 0.431
SFG 44 179 186 154 177 0.523 0.567 0.522 85 -5 0.495
STL 46 202 205 171 177 0.565 0.575 0.566 92 -6 0.539
TBR 46 243 226 147 182 0.696 0.716 0.599 101 6 0.624
TEX 46 221 220 205 211 0.565 0.535 0.518 86 6 0.543
TOR 48 250 229 214 208 0.563 0.574 0.544 89 6 0.570
WSN 46 194 202 216 216 0.500 0.450 0.468 77 -6 0.442

G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals.  If you don't like the league adjustment, click in the header and sort by this column.
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here).
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.

 

Team Offenses and Defenses

Team RS eRS wOBA OBP SLG wRC EqBRR Clutch RA eRA ERA FIP xFIP xFIPrns Field Catch BABIP
ARI 228 220 0.338 0.339 0.448 224 -3 5 262 195 5.71 5.16 4.45 210 16 -1 0.320
ATL 208 203 0.327 0.340 0.385 203 0 -4 188 199 3.99 4.04 4.17 191 -6 0 0.292
BAL 166 179 0.312 0.316 0.385 180 -1 -5 224 237 4.51 4.61 4.73 222 -23 1 0.313
BOS 234 239 0.343 0.343 0.446 242 -2 5 224 216 4.48 4.33 4.47 222 3 0 0.289
CHW 182 177 0.315 0.318 0.394 180 -3 -4 208 200 4.53 4.08 4.21 196 0 0 0.305
CHC 198 204 0.326 0.332 0.411 206 -2 -25 200 188 4.13 3.87 4.00 187 -8 2 0.305
CIN 216 223 0.336 0.338 0.439 219 4 17 211 202 4.61 4.26 4.24 203 5 -1 0.309
CLE 172 181 0.317 0.329 0.363 183 -1 3 220 219 4.45 4.73 4.80 218 6 -1 0.304
COL 194 198 0.321 0.336 0.415 195 3 -15 173 205 3.86 3.82 4.24 199 -2 -1 0.301
DET 200 218 0.336 0.344 0.412 219 -1 24 196 201 4.11 4.00 4.47 206 2 -1 0.300
FLA 218 214 0.327 0.329 0.404 208 5 -7 194 195 3.87 3.72 4.19 199 5 1 0.300
HOU 134 111 0.272 0.274 0.322 110 1 13 213 197 4.20 3.86 4.12 189 -4 1 0.323
KCR 196 206 0.329 0.337 0.415 210 -4 -6 230 250 4.84 4.74 4.88 233 -24 0 0.306
LAD 231 228 0.339 0.343 0.420 224 4 17 221 226 4.26 3.89 4.25 198 -28 0 0.306
LAA 210 187 0.315 0.312 0.394 190 -3 -3 247 239 4.73 4.64 4.53 223 -8 -2 0.313
MIL 236 251 0.352 0.346 0.448 253 -2 -28 261 237 5.36 4.61 4.57 213 -30 -1 0.341
MIN 220 234 0.346 0.357 0.419 236 -2 -6 178 181 3.91 3.87 4.12 191 7 2 0.308
NYY 248 257 0.359 0.363 0.442 256 2 -6 183 182 3.88 4.30 4.27 192 10 0 0.285
NYM 209 204 0.322 0.323 0.389 199 5 -10 191 214 3.80 4.22 4.48 216 -4 1 0.314
OAK 179 175 0.310 0.316 0.360 174 1 6 195 200 3.93 4.13 4.28 203 7 0 0.283
PHI 220 216 0.339 0.341 0.444 219 -3 13 171 184 3.80 4.17 4.15 189 5 2 0.292
PIT 158 167 0.305 0.310 0.360 170 -3 13 269 234 5.37 4.73 4.59 217 -15 0 0.319
SDP 208 199 0.323 0.323 0.363 197 2 -8 158 160 2.96 3.53 3.81 181 18 2 0.278
SEA 161 154 0.302 0.310 0.347 158 -4 0 189 192 3.79 3.93 4.37 203 20 -2 0.293
SFG 179 186 0.317 0.323 0.390 182 4 -2 154 177 3.37 3.78 4.31 199 26 -1 0.273
STL 202 205 0.327 0.334 0.399 207 -2 5 171 177 3.03 3.60 3.89 187 6 3 0.289
TBR 243 226 0.334 0.334 0.409 220 6 4 147 182 2.92 3.79 4.07 198 18 1 0.271
TEX 221 220 0.329 0.337 0.413 212 8 6 205 211 4.10 4.44 4.50 219 3 1 0.293
TOR 250 229 0.337 0.309 0.466 230 -1 26 214 208 4.33 3.80 4.07 202 -5 -2 0.305
WSN 194 202 0.330 0.336 0.415 209 -7 -2 216 216 4.51 4.69 4.78 227 11 2 0.292

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics.  We report this in runs.

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: tRuns - Field - Catch
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs.  Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average.  xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = The average of team UZR and team DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately).
Catch = Catcher Fielding Runs, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference.  The methods are essentially those described here.  But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater precision.
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play.  Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although chance events can have effects as well.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Beyond the Box Score

You must be a member of Beyond the Box Score to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Beyond the Box Score. You should read them.

Join Beyond the Box Score

You must be a member of Beyond the Box Score to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Beyond the Box Score. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker