An Early AL All Star Game Ballot
I'll never quite understand why Major League Baseball starts All Star Game voting in mid-April, as if votes from then are anything near a legitimate reflection of who's played the best this season. I mean, at that point in the season, Edgar Renteria and Scott Podsednik had some of the best numbers in the game, and they belong in the All-Star Game about as much as I do.
But the ballot did finally catch my attention last week while I was attending a White Sox game, and MLB released their first AL voting update yesterday. Now, the All Star Game is always something that I've never been 100% comfortable with, to be honest. Basically, I just hate the double-whammy of the voters and managers constantly omitting or including the wrong guys on the rosters, while the media and the public actually take those designations seriously. I mean, take last year, when guys like Miguel Tejada and Brandon Inge played in the game. That's good and fine and all, but one day when people are discussing how good Inge used to be, they'll surely look to his All Star Game appearance as a talking point. And it's quite unfortunate, but that figure simply isn't remotely an accurate reflection of a player's greatness, even though it's purported to be exactly that. To someone like me, that's okay, but to the more casual baseball fan, All Star designations can really affect a player's reputation going forward.
Now that I've gotten that out of the way, though, I thought that it would be interesting to see what my ballot would look like if I punched out one of those cards today. So over the next two days, I'm going to cover what my votes would be for both leagues, with some thoughts about each position. These aren't necessarily the guys who will, or are most likely to, play in the All Star Game, but they're the guys that I'd toss out onto the field if I was the King of Baseball. Some of these are super obvious, some of them aren't so much, but there's been no shortage of quality baseball played so far.
We'll start off with the American League today, as their voting results were released first, and I'll choose a pitcher, too, because that's the kind of guy that I am. Tomorrow I'll cover the National League.
AL Catcher: Joe Mauer, Minnesota
This should surprise nobody, he's the premier backstop in baseball right now. He leads all MLB catchers in fWAR, and might be the best player in the AL right now. The crazy thing though? He hasn't even been the best player on his own team so far. He's all but a lock to start in the game, he currently leads all AL players in votes.
AL First Base: Justin Morneau, Minnesota
Morneau is going absolutely freaking insane this season, his 3.6 fWAR so far is 0.8 WAR higher than Chase Utley's second-place mark. He's currently sporting a .507 wOBA, which is early-2000's Bondsian territory. Because pretty much nobody can maintain this kind of production, Morneau is all but sure to drop off from here, especially given his .444 BABIP. But he's showing a significantly more patient approach this season, one that's yielded a major increase in walks, and he's pretty much stopped hitting the ball on the ground, his 26% GB rate so far is down 15% from his 41% career mark. If he maintained this production for 150 games, he'd be in line for an fWAR around 13, which would easily set a record for the FanGraphs-era.The only guy even close to Morneau here is Kevin Youkilis, but Morneau is off to a truly special start right now. Unfortunately, Yankee fans have apparently managed to flood the voting booths so far though with votes for Mark Teixeira, so Morneau isn't currently on pace to start.
AL Second Base: Robinson Cano, New York (AL)
It was between Cano and Zobrist, but a lot of Zobrist's value comes from an impressive UZR mark that I'm somewhat skeptical of. Meanwhile, Cano has been one of the key parts of the Yankees' offense so far. He leads all AL second basemen in wOBA and he's tied with Zobrist (who's played a lot of right field) for first place in fWAR, he's been neck and neck with Ty Wigginton as the best offensive second baseman in the AL all season. He's in line for his third 4.5+ fWAR season in the past four years, which really makes you wonder what the hell happened in 2008 (0.2 fWAR in 159 games).
AL Third Base: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay
I think that we can comfortably say that Evan Longoria is the best third baseman in the AL right now. Longoria's numbers keep trending upwards while A-Rod's numbers go down, and this is a guy who was worth over 12 wins in his first two seasons as a Ray. There's just nobody that can keep up with Longo.
AL Shortstop: Elvis Andrus, Texas
I've talked about Andrus' offensive emergence before, but I think that he might already be the best shortstop in the AL already. At the tender age of 21, he leads all AL shortstops in fWAR and he's second in wOBA. It appears that we may be watching the rise of Elvis at the same time that we watch the demise of Jeter. Not that Jeter is done by any means, he's still one of the better shortstops in the game, but the Rangers really appear to have a gem in Mr. Andrus.
AL Outfielders: Alex Rios, Chicago, Nelson Cruz, Texas and Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay
I've talked about Rios a lot lately, probably because he's been one of the few truly pleasant surprises in a rough start to the White Sox's season. But seriously, ZiPS projects him to finish with 24 homers, 40 doubles, 34 steals and a .371 wOBA, all coming from an above average defender in center field. A lot of people bashed Kenny Williams for claiming Rios from Toronto, but right now that move is one of the few keeping Chicago afloat.
As for Cruz, I don't really know what to say, he went on the 15-Day DL in early May and still has some of the best numbers in the game. The strikeouts are a little worrisome, but he's also walking a good deal more this year as well. With his combination of power, speed and quality defense, you can take a few strikeouts. I mean, Cruz was worth 3.4 fWAR last season, and he should easily be able to exceed that this year.
Crawford may not be long for Tampa, but he's trying to make the best of his stay, clearly. He's showing more patience and hitting for more power than ever before, and he's still got his usual arsenal of gap power, excellent contact skills, elite speed and brilliant defense. Guys like Vernon Wells and Shin-Soo Choo have been awesome this year, but Crawford's been a little better.
AL Designated Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero, Texas
Guerrero is another guy who I've briefly discussed lately, thanks to his handy little start in Texas. Jose Guillen, Andruw Jones and Luke Scott have flashed more power at the DH spot this year, but Guerrero blows them away in batting average, and his power has been no slouch this year either; he's already hit 9 home runs. Vlad is presumably due for some regression, but he's shown so far this season that he's not remotely done smacking baseballs a very long way.
AL Starting Pitcher: Ricky Romero, Toronto
If you haven't noticed by now, I'm a Ricky Romero fan. And frankly, I think he really deserves some recognition for what he's done so far this season. Because as of today, he might have been the best pitcher in the AL so far, if you ask me. He's 6th in the AL in innings pitched, 4th in strikeouts and has the fourth-highest groundball rate among AL starters. Put it all together, and the metrics have him as arguably the best pitcher in the AL so far. He's 7th in the AL in ERA, but he's 2nd in FIP and 3rd in xFIP, and his tERA mark is even better than that. Jon Lester and James Shields could definitely give Romero a run for his money so far, but I'd take Romero if I had to choose one early-season pitching performance.
Covering up things, we got three guys from Texas, two guys from Minnesota, two guys from Tampa, and three other teams with one guy apiece. I suppose it shouldn't be surprising to anyone that Texas, Minnesota and Tampa Bay are all in first-place right now, then. There are some possible future Hall of Famers in their primes, like Mauer and Longoria. There are some young guys just reaching the height of their craft, like Andrus and Romero. There are some really good players having really great seasons, like Rios, Morneau and Cruz. And then there's the cherry on top, the legend who's showing everyone that he's not quite dead yet, and conveniently his name is Vladimir. I agreed with the voting results so far on Mauer, Cano, Longoria, Crawford, Guerrero and Cruz, but I don't quite feel that Teixeira, Jeter, and Ichiro Suzuki are as deserving as other players at their respective positions. Then again, Andrus would need to bat like .500 while Jeter gets hit by a bus in order take enough votes away from The Captain to get the honor, so I think we'll have to fight for Andrus another year.
So there it is, that's my AL All Star Game ballot as of today, about 45 games into the season.
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9 of Vlad's home runs came at home,
And he has a 120(!) WRC+ home/road split.
HMMMMMMMM…
Well, lucky for him, he'll keep playing in Texas this year
So he’ll continue to benefit from Arlington’s offensive environment. At this point he’s been the best DH in the AL.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on May 25, 2010 8:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Question. Please answer.
Why would you use stats you are “skeptical of” like UZR and stats that incorporate UZR to support your writing?
He didn't say he was skeptical of UZR
he said he was skeptical of Zobrist’s current UZR mark.
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Yup.
I think UZR is the best we’ve got, but Zobrist’s UZR numbers are pretty wacky.
All in limited duty (between 100 and 130 games at each respective position), he’s been elite at second base and in right field, but absolutely horrid at shortstop. I just don’t think that we can accurately believe
I certainly believe that Zobrist is a plus defender, but right now he’s at +59 per 150 games, which is essentially impossible. Zobrist isn’t nearly as good defensively as his UZR currently indicates, and while he’s better than Cano, I don’t believe that it’s enough to offset Cano’s offensive advantages.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on May 26, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Enlighten me
if fWAR an adjusted WAR? Which site publishes the stat, BP?
Ceterum censeo, Ron Washington esse delendam
1. fWAR = fangraphs’ WAR
2. rWAR = Rally’s WAR
I think it’s an exceedingly silly demarcation, btw. All WAR should be the same.
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But they're figured differently
Maybe we need an avgWAR?
by Dan Turkenkopf on May 26, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
No, we just need WAR.
Imagine if earlier baseball writers had to deal with NYTavg and LATavg! It’s beyond absurd that they’re both using the same three letters for something slightly different.
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Is it mostly a naming issue or an issue that there's more than one way to calculate it?
WAR is a much more complex measure than average – and we don’t necessarily have the one true way to measure value yet.
As a side note, there’s at least two other methods I’m aware of for calculating something like WAR – Dan Rosenheck’s (also called WAR) and Chris Dial’s Offense Plus Defense (OPD).
by Dan Turkenkopf on May 26, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Where's Dan's available?
WARP could count, too, although the framework is a bit different, not just the implementation.
Oh yeah, forgot about WARP
Dan’s is all over the Hall of Merit at BBTF. And I was wrong, he calls it WARP I think.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/dan_rosenhecks_warp_data
by Dan Turkenkopf on May 26, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
definitely more complex than avg,
no doubt.
I’m suggesting that we’ll never get universal acceptance of very good, very telling stats until we can agree on one—universally.
WAR, VORP, WARP, w/e. Let’s bring the big boys together and get them to agree on a single meaning for WAR. It’s hard enough explaining what the idea is to non-sabos without having to also explain that what you’re explaining changes depending on which site we’re using.
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What's most important?
Being across history => Rally’s WAR
Being more accurate => Fangraphs WAR (assuming UZR is more accurate than TotalZone)
Rosenheck’s WARP and Dial’s OPD just aren’t wildly available and BP’s WARP is based on FRAA – which I think Clay is(has?) improved, but still well behind TotalZone.
Oh, and WinShares is another option, but that’s got a lot of weirdness.
by Dan Turkenkopf on May 26, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Aren't there a ton of problems with Win Shares, though?
Pretty much every smart person I know or read greatly prefers some sort of WAR in favor of Win Shares.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on May 26, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Studes prefers win shares!
The fact that it adds up to total team wins is a strong selling point IMO.
by vivaelpujols on May 28, 2010 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Well it doesn't really "add up to total team wins"
It breaks down total team wins and allocates them to individuals, which is a little bit different.
I’ll agree that Win Shares Above Bench, which I think is Studes’ preferred measure, is better than straight Win Shares, and closer to WAR.
by Dan Turkenkopf on May 28, 2010 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions
You can't average out stats that are trying to do difference things
It would be like averaging out slugging and obp.
by vivaelpujols on May 28, 2010 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Which is basically what OPS does so that's a bad analogy
On the other hand, it’s a good reason why OPS is stupid.
by vivaelpujols on May 28, 2010 2:11 AM EDT up reply actions
I wasn't suggesting a straight average
But both stats are trying to measure the “value” of a player.
The difficulty comes with pitchers because Rally is calling defense adjusted RA the pitcher’s value, where Fangraphs is saying pitcher’s value is captured by FIP.
Is there some middle ground there that’s a better answer? And as you mentioned in the other thread, you need to know what you’re trying to measure, and I don’t have a good answer for pitcher WAR.
by Dan Turkenkopf on May 28, 2010 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree that their is probably a good middle ground
FIP takes out too much, defense adjusted RA takes out too little. I think PZR is perfect actually, even though it has measurement error.
But that’s the point, the two stats are making different assumptions, so they are effectively different stats, even if they are trying to measure the same thing. Saying fWAR and rWAR is necessary until we all agree on one universal way of calculating WAR.
by vivaelpujols on May 28, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Not "slightly different"
rWAR uses defense adjusted run average for pitchers, fWAR uses FIP. That’s a HUGE difference in some cases and it needs to be noted that the difference comes from two different ways of measuring value.
They are often large differences on the offensive side of things. AVG only has one defintion, WAR has many.
by vivaelpujols on May 28, 2010 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Honestly, that one is on me for not making things clearer in the post.
I just like to make it clear when I’m using Rally WAR vs. FanGraphs WAR, because realistically the results that each produce are somewhat different, particularly because Rally uses TotalZone for defense while FanGraphs uses UZR.
I certainly think that things will be a lot easier for everyone when we can figure out a single metric, but isn’t that really one of the main goals of sabermetrics, though? (i.e. to create a single, accurate statistic that encompasses all of the value that a player can offer)
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I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on May 26, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I have a Diamond I'd like to sell you.
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Yeah, seriously
The day we determine that statistic is the day that sabermetrics become infinitely less fun, though.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on May 26, 2010 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't say that.
Once you have a metric, then you can project that metric.
When you can project that metric somewhat accurately, you want to figure the variance around the metric and the distribution of the metric.
I think Player A is gonna get a Normal(3, .5) WAR next year based on a through f.
That’s my dream anyways.
Think you have to give more credit to Youkilis
and that he might surpass Morneau soon. Just look at Youk’s May numbers, a .556 wOBA with a .352 babip, only slightly above his career babip. Compare this to Morneau, who is behind Youk with a .531 wOBA, but with a .509 (!!) babip. Sure Youk’s HR/FB rate is 10% above the last couple of years, but still, he’ has a .556 wOBA without a lot of help from babip.

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