Top 5 OF Arms
by PWHjort on May 25, 2010 11:16 AM EDT
in Visuals Above Replacement
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Notes and questions are listed below. You can read them by clicking the link that says "Continue reading this post".
Notes
1. I used the average +/- OF arm runs and UZR OF arm runs.
2. This is obviously extremely sensitive to small sample size.
3. Data courtesy of Fangraphs.
4. Includes games through Sunday the 23rd of May.
Questions
1. Who is here to stay? Who is a SSS fluke
2. Who deserves to be here that isn't?
3. Who really has the best OF arm in the game?
4. How important is it for an outfielder to have a good arm?
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After watching John Bowker in the outfield for the Giants, I do believe it is important to have a strong arm to play the outfield. If the opposing team knows you have a strong arm, they might not try to tag and advance bases.
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Nelson Cruz has a rocket
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Sample size issue?
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by Justin Bopp on May 25, 2010 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
that explains why he still has less than
30 home runs
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by Justin Bopp on May 25, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
1. Who is here to stay? Who is a small-sample-size fluke?
Can anybody comment about Michael Bourn-e Identity? He doesn’t particularly profile as a guy with a cannon, but this says otherwise. (and I’ve never watched him long enough to comment).
Just wondering.
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There are plenty of quick little guys in the majors with cannons. Think about it.
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on May 25, 2010 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
The reason Marlon Byrd is inexplicably high must be the NL sucks.
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jeff francoeur is an interesting case
He only has 1 run above average thus far, but he is definitely one of the strongest OF arms I have seen. Seeing as he is lousy at everything else, I guess OF throwing is a rather marginal skill. Who wouldn’t prefer JD Drew and his -14.5 OF arm runs but plus 56.3 range runs (career RF) over a strong throwing RF with average or worse range? One is the difference between a hit or an out, the other is the difference between a runner on second or a runner on third in the most common scenarios.
- Matt Sullivan
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while. - Nuke LaLoosh
A scout might tell you Jeff Francoeur has the best OF arm in baseball. He might be right. In 2007 Francoeur had the 2nd most +/- arm runs and the most UZR arm runs in the game. He hasn’t had a season like that since. I think one reason is the typical “they stopped running on him” explanation. I also think he’s not nearly as athletic as he was when he was 23 years old. When he was 23 he looked like a 23 year old out there. Now he looks like a 33 year old (he’s 26).
Still, he does have a good arm.
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Quick question about UZR and +/- Arm
What exactly is being measured? How does it work? Does it measure distance thrown, accuracy, arm strength, opportunities, what?
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From MGLs UZR primer
As well, outfield arm run values are also computed separately from "regular" UZR. They are based on the speed and location of batted balls to the outfield and how often base runners advance extra bases (advances), don’t advance the extra base (holds), or get thrown out trying to advance (kills). Park factors are used in arm ratings. For example, because the left fielder plays so shallow in Fenway and balls tend to quickly ricochet off the Green Monster, it is difficult to advance an extra base on a hit to LF in Boston. In Colorado, because the OF is so expansive, base runners advance more easily than in an average park. The UZR "arm engine" adjusts for those things.
Full primer here
by stevesommer05 on May 25, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
It's very much like measuring baserunning.
How many bases/outs do you expect given the limited parameters you can include, and then how does the runner compare to that average?
Sample size issues
tells me I’d like to see this with several years worth of data.
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I'd agree.
I think we’ve talked about season-long defensive sample issues before — certainly with only a few months, we’ll get some weird results.
Especially when you divide the data into it’s components.
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Markakis
Definitely has a great arm. Used to be a pitcher who threw in the mid 90s I believe. Very strong and accurate, and seems to do a nice job with position before a throw and with the release. Wouldn’t say it’s the best around, but I’d be pretty confident in top 10.
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by Daniel Moroz on May 25, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder if Ankiel has a strong arm, former pitcher and all?
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It's an absolute rocket, I thought that was common knowledge.
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on May 25, 2010 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
He does
He got a 5/5 in the Fans Scouting Report for arm strength, which I would personally agree with. He got dinged in release and accuracy…
I think we have something!
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More visually appealing, to me at least.
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Soriano used to have such an arm that it made him a plus defender
although the last couple years, I think his overall decline is effecting that. There was a study here a couple years ago that showed he was 2nd best LF in MLB from 06-08 behind Crawford, and much of that was based on the number of runs he saved with his arm.
by philadelphiacub on May 29, 2010 12:44 PM EDT reply actions
Gotta have Michael Cuddyer
on that list. Guy has a cannon.
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by TGPackersTwins19 on May 30, 2010 12:27 AM EDT reply actions
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