2010 Catcher Defense Rankings as of May 25, 2010

by Matt Klaassen on May 25, 2010 2:00 PM EDT in Positional Reviews

I am on the masthead, so I might as well contribute something, right?

After the 2009 season, I published catcher defense rankings at Driveline Mechanics. It was a a modified version simple methodology that Justin Inaz and others had used before. Since then, others like Mike Rogers of Bless You Boys have published versions with their own tweaks (so there will be slight differences). Moreover, in adding Dewans Plus/Minusto their player pages, FanGraphs now includes catcher's Stolen Base Runs Saved in WAR.

Still, what about some of that other stuff? Heck, I haven't contributed much here yet, but I thought that people might find it helpful, interesting, or at least humorous if I published current catcher defensive rankings (including Stolen Base Runs, Throwing Errors, Fielding Errors, and Wild Pitch/Passed Balls) semi-regularly during the season. Heck, maybe I'll even do some historical seasons if the "demand" is great enough? Sound good? No? Well, try to stop me.

Read on for the current 2010 rankings and methdology, as of today.

Methodology

(Feel free to skip down to the rankings without reading all this boring stuff, but don't complain about the methodology until you've read this stuff! Then have at it.)

I went on-and-on about this stuff in last season's post at Driveline, so I won't repeat it all here (you should read that if you want to gory details.). Briefly: I don't deal with "pitch calling" because while there might be a skill here, there's no methodology for isolating it yet (that I know of) that holds up statistically.

More significantly for what I am dealing with here (the running game, pitch blocking, etc.), I acknowledge that this methodology is limited in that it can't account for the differences in catching Zack Greinke as opposed to Tim Wakefield. That's why Tom Tango's WOWY is probably the best method for catcher defense out there. Well, I'm not smart enough to do that, and it also would be difficult to do in-season (links to other WOWY approachecs can be found in Driveline post). There is also cool stuff out there (done by our own Harry Pavlidis and Dan Turkenkopf) using Pitch f/x to analyze pitch blocking.

I'm sure Dewan does stuff that make his Stolen Base Runs Saved superior to this, and ideally, we'd have more sophisticated methods all around (like the above). This is a quick, dirty, and pretty easy method using fielding numbers easily accessible at Baseball-Reference. However, I think if you examine the rankings (especially at the end of a season) and compare them to your own observations or the Fans Scouting Report, it matches up pretty well with our impressions on who the good and bad defense catchers are, with enough surprises that it isn't useless. So let me know if you think this is useful enough to update semi-regularly, although I might keep dong it, anyway!

Here are the abbrieviated formulas used. Look at the older post for the extended defenses, explanations and distinctions.

Stolen Bases/Caught Stealing: A) figure out the league rate for caught stealing; B) separate the catcher caught stealings from pitcher pickoffs; C) total the CSctch +SB to get total stolen base attempts (SBA) and then to total CSctch/total SBA for the lgCS rate; D) use the weight of .63 runs for each caught stealing, which represents the average linear weight of the caught stealing (.44 runs) plus the weight of the stolen base not achieved (.19 runs). Formula for runs above/below average: **(CS - (lgCSrate) * SBA) * 0.63**.

Wild pitches/passed balls: The league rate = (WPlg + PBlg)/lgPA. The linear weight for each passed ball/wild pitch is 0.28 runs. The formula for each player is ((WP + PB) - (lgWPPBrate * PA)) * -0.28.

Errors: There are two types of errors, throwing errors and fielding errors .There are separate linear weights for throwing errors (-0.48) and fielding errors (-0.75). Throwing errors: (TE - (lgTErate * PA)) * -0.48. Fielding errors: (FE - (lgFErate * PA)) * -0.75.

I round to one decimal place. That gives too much an an illusion of precision, but I wanted it so that the rankings would sort more clearly.

Keep in mind that these are "straight current value," they are "counting" stats, not rate stats. Also keep in mind the usual caveats about observed performance versus true talent!

Current Leaders and Trailers

Total Defense: The leader is Yadier Molina at +5.2 runs so far, followed by Matt Wieters at +3.8. Molina being the leader indicates we're getting at something here. So far Wieters is showing that even if his bat isn't what some thought it might be, that his throwing arm is, shall we say, "deadly accurate." Mike Napoli and Ryan Doumit are at the bottom with -4.3 and -5.0 runs, respectively.

Caught Stealing Runs: Miguel Olivo (currently #7 overall!) is throwing enough guys out to overcome his problems with pitch blocking so far, at +4.2 runs, followed by Jose Molina at +3.4. Ryan Doumit is at the bottom again at -3.9 runs, and Victor Martinez is second-to-last with -3.0.

Wild Pitches/Passed Balls: Yadier Molina (+1.8) and Carlos Ruiz (+1.5) lead, with Mike Napoli (-2.5) and Rob Johnson (-2.6) bringing up the rear. But let's face it, Johnson is in there for his bat, right?

It's too early to care about errors. Either that, or I'm too lazy.

Let the whining begin!

Rank	Player	Tm	PA	FERuns	TERns	PBWPRns	CSRns	Total Runs
1	Yadier Molina	STL	1414	-0.4	0.3	1.8	3.5	5.2
2	Matt Wieters	BAL	1439	0.4	0.3	1.3	1.9	3.8
3	Humberto Quintero	HOU	889	0.2	0.5	1.2	1.6	3.5
4	Jose Molina	TOR	505	0.1	0.3	-0.9	3.9	3.4
5	Henry Blanco	NYM	462	0.1	0.3	0.1	2.5	2.9
6	Chris Snyder	ARI	1285	0.3	0.7	-0.2	1.3	2.1
7	Miguel Olivo	COL	1173	0.3	-0.8	-1.7	4.2	2.1
8	Ronny Paulino	FLA	796	0.2	0.0	-0.1	1.8	1.9
9	Nick Hundley	SDP	904	-0.5	0.5	1.0	0.7	1.7
10	Lou Marson	CLE	1200	0.3	0.7	-1.3	2.0	1.7
11	Ivan Rodriguez	WSN	1199	0.3	0.2	0.6	0.5	1.6
12	Carlos Ruiz	PHI	1190	-0.5	0.7	1.5	-0.2	1.5
13	Koyie Hill	CHC	428	0.1	0.2	0.8	0.3	1.5
14	Ryan Hanigan	CIN	782	0.2	-1.0	0.4	1.7	1.3
15	Yorvit Torrealba	SDP	737	-0.6	0.4	0.5	0.9	1.3
16	Joe Mauer	MIN	1135	0.3	0.2	0.5	0.3	1.2
17	Jason Jaramillo	PIT	367	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.5	0.9
18	Craig Tatum	BAL	300	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.7	0.9
19	Landon Powell	OAK	413	0.1	-0.2	0.5	0.5	0.9
20	Ramon Castro	CHW	140	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.8
21	Brian Schneider	PHI	214	0.1	-0.4	0.6	0.6	0.8
22	Jason LaRue	STL	235	0.1	0.1	0.6	0.0	0.8
23	Gerald Laird	DET	1026	0.3	0.1	-0.7	1.1	0.8
24	Alex Avila	DET	643	0.2	-0.1	-1.1	1.8	0.8
25	David Ross	ATL	362	0.1	-0.3	-0.4	1.4	0.8
26	Geovany Soto	CHC	1281	0.3	0.7	0.3	-0.7	0.7
27	J.R. Towles	HOU	509	0.1	-0.2	0.2	0.4	0.5
28	Eli Whiteside	SFG	537	0.1	0.3	-0.5	0.6	0.5
29	Wil Nieves	WSN	555	0.1	-0.2	0.9	-0.5	0.3
30	Drew Butera	MIN	259	0.1	-0.3	0.1	0.4	0.3
31	Jason Varitek	BOS	507	0.1	0.3	0.8	-1.0	0.2
32	Max Ramirez	TEX	344	0.1	-0.3	0.1	0.4	0.2
33	Bobby Wilson	LAA	56	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.2
34	Brad Ausmus	LAD	40	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1
35	Josh Donaldson	OAK	203	0.1	-0.4	0.0	0.4	0.1
36	Paul Hoover	PHI	220	0.1	-0.4	0.0	0.4	0.1
37	Wilson Ramos	MIN	258	0.1	0.1	0.4	-0.6	0.1
38	Jonathan Lucroy	MIL	3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
39	Nick Stavinoha	STL	2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
40	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	TEX	37	0.0	0.0	0.1	-0.1	0.0
41	Jason Kendall	KCR	1629	-0.3	-1.5	0.7	1.1	0.0
42	Brian McCann	ATL	1273	-0.4	-0.7	0.6	0.5	-0.1
43	Brett Hayes	FLA	142	0.0	0.1	0.1	-0.3	-0.1
44	Taylor Teagarden	TEX	369	0.1	-0.3	-0.4	0.4	-0.2
45	Kelly Shoppach	TBR	113	0.0	0.1	-0.5	0.1	-0.4
46	Bryan Anderson	STL	46	0.0	0.0	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4
47	Ramon Hernandez	CIN	964	0.2	0.6	-1.9	0.7	-0.5
48	Matt Treanor	TEX	1019	-0.5	0.1	0.7	-0.9	-0.5
49	Miguel Montero	ARI	119	0.0	0.1	0.0	-0.7	-0.6
50	Paul Phillips	COL	172	0.0	-0.4	-0.1	-0.1	-0.6
51	Donny Lucy	CHW	190	0.0	0.1	-0.1	-0.7	-0.6
52	John Jaso	TBR	738	-1.3	-0.1	0.8	-0.1	-0.6
53	Ryan Budde	LAA	121	0.0	0.1	-0.5	-0.2	-0.6
54	John Baker	FLA	752	0.2	-0.5	0.3	-0.6	-0.6
55	Jeff Mathis	LAA	379	0.1	0.2	-0.4	-0.6	-0.6
56	Dioner Navarro	TBR	839	0.2	-0.5	-0.3	-0.1	-0.7
57	George Kottaras	MIL	700	0.2	0.4	-0.4	-0.9	-0.7
58	Jake Fox	OAK	180	-0.7	0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.8
59	Francisco Cervelli	NYY	839	0.2	-0.5	0.3	-1.0	-1.0
60	Russell Martin	LAD	1484	-0.4	-0.6	-0.3	0.0	-1.2
61	Josh Bard	SEA	219	-0.7	0.1	-0.3	-0.4	-1.2
62	Brayan Pena	KCR	147	-0.7	0.1	-0.5	-0.3	-1.4
63	A.J. Pierzynski	CHW	1357	-0.4	0.8	-0.6	-1.2	-1.4
64	Gregg Zaun	MIL	1095	-0.5	0.1	-0.5	-0.7	-1.5
65	Rod Barajas	NYM	1330	-1.2	0.8	0.1	-1.3	-1.6
66	Chris Iannetta	COL	340	0.1	-0.3	-0.8	-0.6	-1.6
67	Mike Redmond	CLE	495	0.1	-0.2	-0.1	-1.7	-1.8
68	Kevin Cash	HOU	279	0.1	0.2	-1.5	-0.6	-1.9
69	Kurt Suzuki	OAK	887	0.2	-0.9	-0.7	-0.5	-1.9
70	John Buck	TOR	1282	0.3	0.7	-1.7	-1.4	-2.0
71	A.J. Ellis	LAD	193	0.0	-0.4	-0.9	-0.8	-2.0
72	Jorge Posada	NYY	758	0.2	-0.5	-1.1	-0.9	-2.3
73	Rob Johnson	SEA	809	0.2	0.0	-2.6	0.1	-2.4
74	Bengie Molina	SFG	1100	0.3	0.6	-1.3	-2.7	-3.1
75	Adam Moore	SEA	641	-1.3	0.4	-1.7	-0.5	-3.1
76	John Hester	ARI	377	0.1	0.2	-2.1	-1.4	-3.2
77	Victor Martinez	BOS	1294	0.3	0.3	-1.1	-3.0	-3.5
78	Mike Napoli	LAA	1294	-0.4	-0.7	-2.5	-0.7	-4.3
79	Ryan Doumit	PIT	1430	-0.4	0.8	-1.5	-3.9	-5.0

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Comments

I'm not sure if I still buy into the TE vs. FE distinction

Some throwing errors can be on throws to first to get a runner who hit a nubber in front of the mound. Those should we given appropriately large weights, because you have a baserunner instead of an out.

I really like the new “ROE” bin at b-ref. In that case, it’s clear that the error caused an extra baserunner where you would have had an out (right?) and we can weight those accordingly. Other errors I’m treating as equivalent to a WP/PB. I don’t know if that’s appropriate or not, but I don’t have a better suggestion at this point.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on May 25, 2010 2:11 PM EDT reply actions

Interesting

I’ll have to think that one over for next time. It WOULD require surgery on my easy-copy-and-paste spreadsheet situation.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on May 25, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Miguel Olivo > Jason Kendall > John Buck

Who knew?

See Data Differently. Beyond The Boxscore. | Follow me @justinbopp
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by Justin Bopp on May 25, 2010 2:11 PM EDT reply actions

I didn't even notice that

Brayan Pena > John Buck

See Data Differently. Beyond The Boxscore. | Follow me @justinbopp
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by Justin Bopp on May 25, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

although that's like, what?

3, 4 games of Brayan? He just had one awful game.

of course, BUck is also sporting a .375 wOBA.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on May 25, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions

You know, Ronny Paulino is actually a pretty good ballplayer

He could probably start for a lot of teams

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on May 25, 2010 2:46 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Surprising, no?

It helps that he’s been platooned the last few years, keeping him away from those dirty right-handers. Still, he’s probably an above average catcher.

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by SFiercex4 on May 25, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Very true

Even so, an above-average defensive catcher that mashes lefties but struggles against righties is still better than what a lot of teams have these days. I mean, the guy has a .382 wOBA in his career against LHP.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on May 25, 2010 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Differences are pretty minimal.

I have Pudge, Wieters, and Barajas +0.4 runs more than you do and I have Teagarden and Avila -0.6 runs less than you do. The average difference is 0.1 runs. Wonder what’s causing it. Checking it out, we have the same data thus far (from the random players I spot checked in terms of PA’s behind the plate).

My top 5 are:

Yadier, 5.5
Wieters: 4.2
Quintero: 3.7
Jose Molina: 3.5
Henry Blanco: 3.1

I might send you my spreadsheet later.

One thing I also like to look at is the stolen base rate against each catcher. I take the Stolen Base Opportunities (SBO) off B-Ref, and then divide the SBA’s by the SBO. The “most run on” catcher this year are:

Ryan Budde: 15.4%
Saltalamacchia: 12.5%
Whiteside: 12.4%
Montero: 12.2%
Brett Hayes: 11.5%

League average is 5.7%.

That list of the ‘most run on’ are riddled with low-playing time guys. If we limit our sample to catchers with at least 650 PA’s behind the plate (league average thus far is 647) we get this:

John Baker: 10.3%
Jason Kendall: 9.8%
Victor Martinez: 8.9%
Bengie Molina: 8.4%
Mike Napoli: 7.7%

Least run on with more than 650 PA’s behind the dish:

Pudge: 2.1%
Barajas: 2.6%
Yadier: 3.2%
Navarro: 3.4%
Kottaras: 3.8%

Is there a reason teams don’t run on George Kottaras? He’s thrown out just 9% of would-be basestealers this year and 13% last year.

My old blog is Tigers By The Numbers.

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by Mike Rogers on May 25, 2010 5:40 PM EDT reply actions

Given the small sample, I'd say the confounding variable is Milwaukee's slew of lefties.

You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan

by Daniel Berlyn on May 25, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Awesome stuff, Matt

I really dig any type of catcher defense analysis.

Even though I’m a Red Sox fan.

Man, not only do our current catchers rank poorly. Even our alum (guys like Kottaras, Shoppach, Bard, and Cash) rate below average. Not our strong suit over here.

On Twitter: @baseballtwit

by adarowski on May 25, 2010 10:33 PM EDT reply actions