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New Arms: Tip of the Iceberg

The first few months of MLB action have yielded a bounty of new pitchers to check out. By "check out" I mean explore via PITCHf/x. The flood comes from two sources: your standard run of the mill rookies playing in the show and (non-)prospects pitching in preseason baseball. Exhibition ball in big league parks in early April is a standard source, but the PITCHf/x installations in Peoria, AZ and Surprise, AZ are the new goldmine.

You may recall the influx of prospect PITCHf/x reports from this past autumn out of the Arizona Fall League when two teams called Surprise home and one Peoria. The Cactus League featured a pair of clubs in both locations, so the pace picked-up in the new year.

The tip of the new arm ice berg includes four interesting pitchers, selected with input from other Beyond the Box Score writers and editors. The rest of them will be selected with your input. Hopefully I'll get to them all (over 80 so far).

Cast your vote(s) for the next round. Today we'll look at Kanekoa Texeira, Bobby Cassevah, John Ely and Hisanori Takahashi.

Star-divide

The book on Texeira is "sinker/slider", but it isn't that simple. I find two distinct breaking balls, an off-speed pitch and two fastballs. As Jeff Sullivan recently noted, Texeira also throws a cutter -- which would explain the other fastball. I'm calling his supposed slider a curveball, as their is fifth pitch that pops up in between the sinker/cutter/change and the sweeping curve. That tweener, I think, is a slider and not the cutter. Sometimes I want to call his change-up a splitter due to the movement, but, watching him pitch for the Mariners a few times I'm comfortable with my current labels and, more importantly, groupings.

Sinker    91
Cutter    91
Change-up 85
Slider    81
Curveball 79

 

Cassevah is another sinker/slider by reputation, and it's a better fit for the Angel reliever. Cassevah mixes in some four-seam fastballs along with a splitter. Along with Texeira, it all comes from a low arm slot. His pitch types are more clear because (a) he says he throws a splitter; and (b) his second fastball is more distinct that Texeira's.

Fastball  90
Sinker    90
Splitter  84
Slider    84

 

Ely, originally a product of the White Sox system, throws over the top with a four-seam fastball, a curveball and a cutter/slutter/slider (I've settled on cutter, for now). He'll throw a few two-seamers, or so it seems, and his change-up could easily be a bad splitter. It doesn't tail, nor does it tumble too much. He seems to be settling into the Dodger rotation, hopefully the front office in Los Angeles doesn't send him back down. Again.

Fastball  88
Sinker    88
Cutter    85
Change-up 79
Curveball 71

 

Takahashi, now in the Mets rotation, is 35 years old, so the "new" is a loosely applied here (I'm older than he is, so I can say that). Thanks to being in the bullpen, and some crazy extra inning action, he's now pitched in every inning from 1 through 14 except the 12th. But anyway .... he's fastball, change-up, slider and curve.

Fastball  89
Slider    80
Change-up 80
Curveball 69

Summing Up

None of these guys are hard throwers. Cassevah and Texeira are both ground ball pitchers (47%, avg is ~ 44%), Cassevah misses a few more bats but Texeira has a much better B:CS ratio. Actually, Texeira's just average (2.2) while Cassevah has just been poor (2.8).

Takahashi and Ely throw more strikes, fewer ground balls and have better control than the two sinker-balling relievers.

While they may have had some good luck on batted balls (only the reverse applies to Cassevah), Ely and Takahashi have been the best of this little group. Texeira looks like he may be due for some regression as more grounders fail to find leather before they find the outfield. Cassevah needs more time, just 134 pitches in PITCHf/x.

Note: Flight path charts coming later

Poll
Who would you like to see in the next New Arms batch?
Ryoto Iragashi
22 votes
Tyson Ross
16 votes
Brad Thomas
2 votes
Luis Atilano
10 votes
Ivan Nova
14 votes
Jon Link
12 votes
Carlos Monasterios
10 votes
Raul Valdes
7 votes
Rommie Lewis
8 votes
Daniel Stange
1 votes
Cory Luebke
6 votes
Jonny Venters
25 votes
Jordan Norberto
3 votes

136 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 7 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I'd love to see one for Nova

He throws hard, and at least on television it looks like he’s throwing some sort of cutter. Though it doesn’t really look like a cutter in the data.

And one for Venters would be great, too. Whiff+groundball guys are always fun.

by Lucas Apostoleris on May 24, 2010 10:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Harry, what're your thoughts on Ely's start so far?

I mean, going beyond the 3-1 record and 3.41 ERA in 31 innings covering five starts, he’s got a freaking 1.83 FIP so far.

His groundball rate is roughly average so his HR/9 is due for some serious regression, which is why his 3.25 xFIP is so much higher than his regular FIP, but even so a 28-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio is awesome.

I know that scouts were never really enamored with the guy because his raw stuff is so underwhelming, but now he’s thriving in LA after three years of success in the minor leagues. He seems like he could be a solid No. 4 or No. 5 starter going forward. Would that seem reasonable to you?

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on May 25, 2010 1:38 PM EDT reply actions  

He might be

He’s been lucky, as much as 1.5 runs per 9, on batted balls. He is a flyball pitcher (with the exception of his change-up) so he may show some home/road splits thanks to Chavez Ravine.

Even then, so far, he’s been good enough to take seriously. If he keeps controlling the strike zone his not-flashy stuff could be serviceable. Right now, based on linear weights and regressed batted ball outcomes, I’d expect him to be above a 4.00 ERA, wich is even more pessimistic than xFIP.

by Harry Pavlidis on May 25, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I bet I am one of the only guys here

who knows who Cory Luebke is.

He was excellent in his first game back this year—3 IP, 5 K, 2 BB.

"It is a truth universally acknowledged that a zombie in possession of brains must be in want of more brains."
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.

by Zach (maestro876) on May 25, 2010 5:21 PM EDT reply actions  

Don't Assume Things

I voted for Stange, cause I’ve been a huge fan of him for years, since he threw high 90s with a great slider before TJ surgery.
I’m a minor league guru, I know these things.

My Guys: Gillies, Pacheco, Drabek, Verlander, Ozuna, A Salcedo, S Rodriguez, and others.

by cwhitman412 on May 25, 2010 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, take that

I would assume that a surprisingly decent number of our readers know who Luebke is, these aren’t exactly casual fans here, per se.

Still, there are just a whole lot of interesting names to choose from there.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on May 25, 2010 8:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Thanks for voting

Iragashi, Venters, Ross and Link are next. Nova and others not listed will be considered for my own wild card pick.
Yikes, still owe you flight paths….

by Harry Pavlidis on May 28, 2010 4:38 PM EDT reply actions  

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