BtB Power Rankings

by JinAZ on May 19, 2010 11:20 PM EDT in Power Rankings

"On Paper" playoff leaders

American League: E=Yankees C=Twins W=Rangers* WC=Rays
National League: E=Phillies C=Cardinals W=Padres WC=Giants

This Week's Feature: Extrapolated Wins (xtW)

Rather than feature a team this week, I'm featuring a new feature. Above you can see a new column in the power rankings called "xtW." This stands for extrapolated wins, which are essentially what Dan published last year in his poor man's season projections.

They are calculated by taking a team's current wins and adding to it the expected wins if a team adheres to its component winning percentage (cW%) the rest of the season. They do NOT involve league adjustments like the TPI number does.

As a nice example, look at the Rays and the Red Sox above. They have similar cW%'s (and TPI's), and as a result would be expected (under this simple model) to win similar numbers of games from this point forward, with a slight bias in the Rays favor. Nevertheless, because the Red Sox have such a large shortfall in wins to date this season compared to the Rays, they are projected to win only 88 games compared to the Rays' 99 wins.

I think this is a fun little feature, but please take it for what it is. It assumes that, over the rest of the season, teams will perform just as well as they have to date based on their component stats. That's not likely to happen, and most teams will regress significantly toward the mean. This is why the extrapolated wins currently have eight teams winning over 90 games, and six teams winning less than 70. Some of those teams probably will stay about where they are, but odds are many of them will end up with weaker (or better) performances than they've received to date, and thus will end up with win totals in the typical 70-90 range.

Nevertheless, if you are interested in a team that has apparently played better than their record indicates thus far, this may give you an indication of how much ground they can reasonably expect to make up over the rest of the season.

Hope you enjoy the new feature.

Converting Runs to Wins

Team	G	RS	eRS	RA	eRA	W%	pW%	cW%	LgAdj	TPI
ARI	40	188	182	230	173	0.400	0.401	0.523	-5	0.496
ATL	39	176	173	164	173	0.487	0.533	0.502	-5	0.476
BAL	40	137	151	192	200	0.325	0.350	0.375	5	0.400
BOS	40	204	214	212	189	0.500	0.482	0.559	5	0.583
CHW	38	153	146	177	175	0.421	0.435	0.417	5	0.444
CHC	40	177	188	185	167	0.450	0.480	0.557	-5	0.531
CIN	39	181	178	178	169	0.590	0.508	0.527	-5	0.501
CLE	37	144	155	177	184	0.405	0.406	0.420	5	0.445
COL	39	169	175	150	179	0.487	0.555	0.492	-5	0.467
DET	39	176	193	176	180	0.564	0.500	0.532	5	0.556
FLA	40	191	182	173	167	0.525	0.547	0.541	-5	0.514
HOU	39	116	98	185	169	0.333	0.303	0.273	-5	0.245
KCR	40	157	170	200	221	0.375	0.389	0.378	5	0.401
LAD	39	209	202	195	195	0.564	0.535	0.516	-5	0.492
LAA	41	173	160	209	205	0.439	0.410	0.383	5	0.408
MIL	39	208	222	224	202	0.385	0.463	0.547	-5	0.525
MIN	39	190	205	155	158	0.615	0.594	0.618	5	0.642
NYY	39	227	233	153	159	0.641	0.683	0.674	5	0.696
NYM	40	176	173	169	188	0.475	0.516	0.462	-5	0.436
OAK	40	164	161	179	178	0.500	0.461	0.454	5	0.481
PHI	38	207	198	142	158	0.632	0.671	0.605	-5	0.581
PIT	39	136	135	239	207	0.436	0.254	0.307	-5	0.283
SDP	39	175	165	130	133	0.590	0.631	0.594	-5	0.565
SEA	39	133	130	161	166	0.359	0.414	0.393	5	0.421
SFG	38	166	175	121	151	0.579	0.638	0.566	-5	0.540
STL	40	174	180	142	150	0.575	0.591	0.580	-5	0.553
TBR	39	209	182	117	154	0.718	0.744	0.576	5	0.602
TEX	40	186	181	177	183	0.550	0.523	0.495	5	0.521
TOR	41	212	199	180	177	0.585	0.578	0.555	5	0.581
WSN	40	166	173	185	187	0.500	0.450	0.465	-5	0.439

G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals. If you don't like the league adjustment, click in the header and sort by this column.
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here).
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.

Team Offenses and Defenses

Team	RS	eRS	wOBA	OBP	SLG	wRC	EqBRR	Clutch	RA	eRA	ERA	FIP	xFIP	xFIPrns	Field	Catch	BABIP
ARI	188	182	0.330	0.333	0.431	185	-3	1	230	173	5.75	5.07	4.49	185	10	-1	0.324
ATL	176	173	0.326	0.342	0.379	174	0	-10	164	173	3.99	3.98	4.12	164	-6	0	0.287
BAL	137	151	0.310	0.309	0.387	152	-1	-4	192	200	4.41	4.51	4.66	191	-10	1	0.308
BOS	204	214	0.349	0.350	0.454	216	-2	-4	212	189	4.94	4.48	4.52	194	0	0	0.302
CHW	153	146	0.311	0.313	0.385	147	0	2	177	175	4.57	4.03	4.26	169	-4	0	0.306
CHC	177	188	0.334	0.341	0.422	190	-2	-27	185	167	4.35	3.82	3.93	161	-16	1	0.315
CIN	181	178	0.328	0.332	0.427	176	3	23	178	169	4.64	4.25	4.17	171	8	-1	0.308
CLE	144	155	0.318	0.333	0.363	155	0	3	177	184	4.17	4.63	4.76	183	4	0	0.301
COL	169	175	0.322	0.339	0.415	171	4	-14	150	179	3.92	3.81	4.22	173	0	-1	0.299
DET	176	193	0.339	0.349	0.415	194	-1	25	176	180	4.22	4.02	4.49	182	-5	-1	0.303
FLA	191	182	0.325	0.328	0.398	177	5	2	173	167	3.90	3.67	4.08	170	4	1	0.300
HOU	116	98	0.273	0.273	0.321	95	3	11	185	169	4.20	3.68	4.03	161	-3	1	0.321
KCR	157	170	0.322	0.327	0.401	172	-2	-2	200	221	4.89	4.71	4.93	205	-22	0	0.308
LAD	209	202	0.342	0.345	0.425	200	2	16	195	195	4.31	3.80	4.20	171	-21	-1	0.307
LAA	173	160	0.317	0.311	0.396	164	-4	-8	209	205	4.72	4.67	4.45	187	-10	-3	0.318
MIL	208	222	0.355	0.350	0.451	224	-2	-31	224	202	5.28	4.74	4.42	179	-26	-2	0.336
MIN	190	205	0.348	0.356	0.426	207	-2	-5	155	158	3.91	3.75	4.05	165	1	2	0.314
NYY	227	233	0.364	0.365	0.453	230	2	4	153	159	3.69	4.27	4.24	168	9	0	0.275
NYM	176	173	0.319	0.319	0.381	168	5	-6	169	188	3.86	4.35	4.45	188	-7	0	0.307
OAK	164	161	0.315	0.319	0.371	161	0	10	179	178	4.14	4.25	4.28	178	1	1	0.285
PHI	207	198	0.347	0.347	0.459	201	-3	13	142	158	3.65	4.22	4.08	162	4	2	0.293
PIT	136	135	0.301	0.304	0.354	137	-2	18	239	207	5.68	4.74	4.63	186	-24	-1	0.326
SDP	175	165	0.319	0.321	0.352	164	1	-2	130	133	2.74	3.53	3.80	158	26	2	0.268
SEA	133	130	0.300	0.309	0.339	135	-5	2	161	166	3.76	4.03	4.37	177	18	-1	0.291
SFG	166	175	0.326	0.333	0.402	171	4	-2	121	151	3.01	3.57	4.16	170	18	-1	0.272
STL	174	180	0.328	0.334	0.404	182	-3	2	142	150	2.81	3.50	3.89	164	14	2	0.286
TBR	209	182	0.328	0.329	0.399	178	5	10	117	154	2.69	3.73	4.06	169	18	0	0.268
TEX	186	181	0.322	0.333	0.396	174	8	13	177	183	4.08	4.61	4.55	194	9	1	0.282
TOR	212	199	0.340	0.314	0.466	201	-2	18	180	177	4.22	3.84	4.04	174	2	-3	0.297
WSN	166	173	0.328	0.331	0.417	178	-5	-3	185	187	4.51	4.69	4.78	198	12	2	0.294

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA = The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics. We report this in runs.

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: tRuns - Field - Catch
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs. Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average. xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = The average of team UZR and team DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately).
Catch = Catcher Fielding Runs, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference. The methods are essentially those described here. But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater precision.
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play. Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although chance events can have effects as well.

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Comments

It's good to know the mets haven't been getting lucky lately

at least we don’t have much further to fall.

I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.

by Gina on May 19, 2010 11:46 PM EDT reply actions

Why do the Rangers have an asterisk?

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on May 20, 2010 12:02 AM EDT reply actions

It's because they just took over their division in the Power Rankings.

Last week, they were not in first. Now, they are.

by Joseph Meyer on May 20, 2010 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions

82 Extrapolated wins takes that division!

Yikes. Bad start for the AL West.

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on May 20, 2010 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions

4 of the top 6 in the AL East.

Damn.

by Joseph Meyer on May 20, 2010 1:00 AM EDT reply actions

5 of 6

In an east division

WTY's ERA+ = 171 : - ) -- Kevin Frandsen > Brandon Wood??????

by Figgi4life on May 20, 2010 1:59 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Reality has a clear east-coast bias.

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on May 20, 2010 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions

The league adjustment is a joke.

Of course if you replace a DH for a pitcher the WHOLE offense will be better. At least NL managers actually have to think about what they are doing during a game(however some still choose not to). All the AL managers have to do is know when to warm a guy up, then put him in the game.

by BucksForever on May 20, 2010 5:06 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

AL teams have to pitch against the DH, too.

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by Sky Kalkman on May 20, 2010 6:09 AM EDT up reply actions

I am anti-DH too

But it has nothing to do with the league adjustment.

…unless you think that’s why the AL has dominated interleague since 2005. And if you think that, you have to explain to me why this was NOT the case prior to 2005.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on May 20, 2010 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd kind of like to see the xW use the league adjustment.

I see it as a re-scaling of the TPI, and it might even make it more clear that it’s NOT a projection, but a re-scaling. (The Yankees have played like a 110 win MLB team so far while the Phillies have played like a 90 win MLB team so far.)

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by Sky Kalkman on May 20, 2010 9:56 AM EDT reply actions

I dunno if Iike that

I think that might get too confusing. A lot of people seem to think TPI is doing what cW% does, and adding a wins metric might be even worse. I also think it’s getting a bit too theoretical… I’ve been treating TPI more as a unitless rating number that an actual theoretical winning %, even if that’s ultimately what it is.

I can see it being confusing next to TPI on the power ranking graphs, but I thought it was interesting enough to feature prominently.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on May 20, 2010 5:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Like this

Not a lot to add here, but I like the expected total wins. The Red Sox… woooh. Wow. I wonder to what extent their brain trust is thinking “yeah we’re f’ed”.

And the Yankees… 108 wins. Wow. Yes, regression to the mean and all that, but that’s a heck of a team they’ve assembled.

by Patrick42 on May 20, 2010 11:40 AM EDT reply actions

Injuries are a definite concern though

by Dan Turkenkopf on May 20, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Are they that scary, though?

Jeter has struggled, Teixeira is doing his early-season struggle thing, and the new guys (Johnson, Granderson) didn’t even play that well when they were healthy.

The injuries are certainly a concern, but with the play they’ve gotten from Brett Gardner, Francisco Cervelli and Marcus Thames (I know he’s hurt, too, now), they’ve been more than alright.

The emergences of Gardner and Hughes have made things a whole lot easier for New York. Although yeah, the injuries are obviously the one thing that could hold them back.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on May 20, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

With Posada, Granderson and Johnson out,

and Gardner and Cervelli overachieving some, there’s a distinct lack of depth. It’s not enough to really scare me, but it might only take one more big injury to really knock the train off the track.

by Dan Turkenkopf on May 20, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I think what I'd say to Boston is...

Keep at it. If you can be that unlucky (and your opponents lucky) in 1.5 months, you can still get lucky over the rest of the season. Might not be the most likely outcome—those TB wins are in the bank—but it’s too early to give up.

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on May 20, 2010 5:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions