BtB Power Rankings

Toprank-051910_medium

Allrank-051910_medium

"On Paper" playoff leaders

American League: E=Yankees C=Twins W=Rangers* WC=Rays
National League: E=Phillies C=Cardinals W=Padres WC=Giants

This Week's Feature: Extrapolated Wins (xtW)

Rather than feature a team this week, I'm featuring a new feature.  Above you can see a new column in the power rankings called "xtW."  This stands for extrapolated wins, which are essentially what Dan published last year in his poor man's season projections.  

They are calculated by taking a team's current wins and adding to it the expected wins if a team adheres to its component winning percentage (cW%) the rest of the season.  They do NOT involve league adjustments like the TPI number does.

As a nice example, look at the Rays and the Red Sox above.  They have similar cW%'s (and TPI's), and as a result would be expected (under this simple model) to win similar numbers of games from this point forward, with a slight bias in the Rays favor.  Nevertheless, because the Red Sox have such a large shortfall in wins to date this season compared to the Rays, they are projected to win only 88 games compared to the Rays' 99 wins.

I think this is a fun little feature, but please take it for what it is.  It assumes that, over the rest of the season, teams will perform just as well as they have to date based on their component stats.  That's not likely to happen, and most teams will regress significantly toward the mean.  This is why the extrapolated wins currently have eight teams winning over 90 games, and six teams winning less than 70.  Some of those teams probably will stay about where they are, but odds are many of them will end up with weaker (or better) performances than they've received to date, and thus will end up with win totals in the typical 70-90 range.

Nevertheless, if you are interested in a team that has apparently played better than their record indicates thus far, this may give you an indication of how much ground they can reasonably expect to make up over the rest of the season.

Hope you enjoy the new feature.

 

Converting Runs to Wins

Team G RS eRS RA eRA W% pW% cW% LgAdj TPI
ARI 40 188 182 230 173 0.400 0.401 0.523 -5 0.496
ATL 39 176 173 164 173 0.487 0.533 0.502 -5 0.476
BAL 40 137 151 192 200 0.325 0.350 0.375 5 0.400
BOS 40 204 214 212 189 0.500 0.482 0.559 5 0.583
CHW 38 153 146 177 175 0.421 0.435 0.417 5 0.444
CHC 40 177 188 185 167 0.450 0.480 0.557 -5 0.531
CIN 39 181 178 178 169 0.590 0.508 0.527 -5 0.501
CLE 37 144 155 177 184 0.405 0.406 0.420 5 0.445
COL 39 169 175 150 179 0.487 0.555 0.492 -5 0.467
DET 39 176 193 176 180 0.564 0.500 0.532 5 0.556
FLA 40 191 182 173 167 0.525 0.547 0.541 -5 0.514
HOU 39 116 98 185 169 0.333 0.303 0.273 -5 0.245
KCR 40 157 170 200 221 0.375 0.389 0.378 5 0.401
LAD 39 209 202 195 195 0.564 0.535 0.516 -5 0.492
LAA 41 173 160 209 205 0.439 0.410 0.383 5 0.408
MIL 39 208 222 224 202 0.385 0.463 0.547 -5 0.525
MIN 39 190 205 155 158 0.615 0.594 0.618 5 0.642
NYY 39 227 233 153 159 0.641 0.683 0.674 5 0.696
NYM 40 176 173 169 188 0.475 0.516 0.462 -5 0.436
OAK 40 164 161 179 178 0.500 0.461 0.454 5 0.481
PHI 38 207 198 142 158 0.632 0.671 0.605 -5 0.581
PIT 39 136 135 239 207 0.436 0.254 0.307 -5 0.283
SDP 39 175 165 130 133 0.590 0.631 0.594 -5 0.565
SEA 39 133 130 161 166 0.359 0.414 0.393 5 0.421
SFG 38 166 175 121 151 0.579 0.638 0.566 -5 0.540
STL 40 174 180 142 150 0.575 0.591 0.580 -5 0.553
TBR 39 209 182 117 154 0.718 0.744 0.576 5 0.602
TEX 40 186 181 177 183 0.550 0.523 0.495 5 0.521
TOR 41 212 199 180 177 0.585 0.578 0.555 5 0.581
WSN 40 166 173 185 187 0.500 0.450 0.465 -5 0.439

G=Games
RS = Actual Runs Scored, after a park adjustment
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored, after park adjustment (see "Offense" table below)
RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after a park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed, after park adjustments (see "Defense" table below)
W% = Actual Winning Percentage
pW% = PythagenPat Winning Percentage, based on actual runs scored and run allowed totals
cW% = Component Winning Percentage, using estimated runs scored and estimated runs allowed totals.  If you don't like the league adjustment, click in the header and sort by this column.
LgAdj = League adjustment, based on differences in league quality (justification here and here).
TPI = Team Performance Index, a hypothetical winning % based on component estimates of runs scored and runs allowed after the league adjustment.

Team Offenses and Defenses

Team RS eRS wOBA OBP SLG wRC EqBRR Clutch RA eRA ERA FIP xFIP xFIPrns Field Catch BABIP
ARI 188 182 0.330 0.333 0.431 185 -3 1 230 173 5.75 5.07 4.49 185 10 -1 0.324
ATL 176 173 0.326 0.342 0.379 174 0 -10 164 173 3.99 3.98 4.12 164 -6 0 0.287
BAL 137 151 0.310 0.309 0.387 152 -1 -4 192 200 4.41 4.51 4.66 191 -10 1 0.308
BOS 204 214 0.349 0.350 0.454 216 -2 -4 212 189 4.94 4.48 4.52 194 0 0 0.302
CHW 153 146 0.311 0.313 0.385 147 0 2 177 175 4.57 4.03 4.26 169 -4 0 0.306
CHC 177 188 0.334 0.341 0.422 190 -2 -27 185 167 4.35 3.82 3.93 161 -16 1 0.315
CIN 181 178 0.328 0.332 0.427 176 3 23 178 169 4.64 4.25 4.17 171 8 -1 0.308
CLE 144 155 0.318 0.333 0.363 155 0 3 177 184 4.17 4.63 4.76 183 4 0 0.301
COL 169 175 0.322 0.339 0.415 171 4 -14 150 179 3.92 3.81 4.22 173 0 -1 0.299
DET 176 193 0.339 0.349 0.415 194 -1 25 176 180 4.22 4.02 4.49 182 -5 -1 0.303
FLA 191 182 0.325 0.328 0.398 177 5 2 173 167 3.90 3.67 4.08 170 4 1 0.300
HOU 116 98 0.273 0.273 0.321 95 3 11 185 169 4.20 3.68 4.03 161 -3 1 0.321
KCR 157 170 0.322 0.327 0.401 172 -2 -2 200 221 4.89 4.71 4.93 205 -22 0 0.308
LAD 209 202 0.342 0.345 0.425 200 2 16 195 195 4.31 3.80 4.20 171 -21 -1 0.307
LAA 173 160 0.317 0.311 0.396 164 -4 -8 209 205 4.72 4.67 4.45 187 -10 -3 0.318
MIL 208 222 0.355 0.350 0.451 224 -2 -31 224 202 5.28 4.74 4.42 179 -26 -2 0.336
MIN 190 205 0.348 0.356 0.426 207 -2 -5 155 158 3.91 3.75 4.05 165 1 2 0.314
NYY 227 233 0.364 0.365 0.453 230 2 4 153 159 3.69 4.27 4.24 168 9 0 0.275
NYM 176 173 0.319 0.319 0.381 168 5 -6 169 188 3.86 4.35 4.45 188 -7 0 0.307
OAK 164 161 0.315 0.319 0.371 161 0 10 179 178 4.14 4.25 4.28 178 1 1 0.285
PHI 207 198 0.347 0.347 0.459 201 -3 13 142 158 3.65 4.22 4.08 162 4 2 0.293
PIT 136 135 0.301 0.304 0.354 137 -2 18 239 207 5.68 4.74 4.63 186 -24 -1 0.326
SDP 175 165 0.319 0.321 0.352 164 1 -2 130 133 2.74 3.53 3.80 158 26 2 0.268
SEA 133 130 0.300 0.309 0.339 135 -5 2 161 166 3.76 4.03 4.37 177 18 -1 0.291
SFG 166 175 0.326 0.333 0.402 171 4 -2 121 151 3.01 3.57 4.16 170 18 -1 0.272
STL 174 180 0.328 0.334 0.404 182 -3 2 142 150 2.81 3.50 3.89 164 14 2 0.286
TBR 209 182 0.328 0.329 0.399 178 5 10 117 154 2.69 3.73 4.06 169 18 0 0.268
TEX 186 181 0.322 0.333 0.396 174 8 13 177 183 4.08 4.61 4.55 194 9 1 0.282
TOR 212 199 0.340 0.314 0.466 201 -2 18 180 177 4.22 3.84 4.04 174 2 -3 0.297
WSN 166 173 0.328 0.331 0.417 178 -5 -3 185 187 4.51 4.69 4.78 198 12 2 0.294

RS = Actual Runs Scored
eRS = Estimated Runs Scored: wRC + EqBRR
wOBA The Book's statistic, but park adjusted, and using data from both wRC and EqBRR
OBP = On Base Percentage (Times on Base / Plate Appearances)
SLG = Slugging Percentage (Total Bases / At Bats)
wRC = From FanGraphs, with baserunning removed, after park adjustments
EqBRR = Dan Fox's composite baserunning statistics from Baseball Prospectus, minus stolen bases since they are included in wRC.
Clutch = "Clutchiness" measure from fangraphs; difference between actual WPA and expected WPA based on component statistics.  We report this in runs.

RA = Actual Runs Allowed, after park adjustment
eRA = Estimated Runs Allowed: tRuns - Field - Catch
ERA = Straight-up Earned Run Average
FIP = Fielding-Independent Runs, based strictly on K-, BB-, and HR-rates.
xFIP = Experimental Fielding-Independent Runs from FanGraphs.  Like FIP, but with HR/Outfield Fly Ball rates regressed completely to league average.  xFIP is as predictive as any other DIPS-like stat.
xFIPrns = Pitching Runs Allowed, based on xFIP
Field = The average of team UZR and team DRS (minus rSB since I calculate catcher fielding separately).
Catch = Catcher Fielding Runs, based on SB's, CS's, WP's, PB's, E's, and this year catcher interference.  The methods are essentially those described here.  But I'm using B-Ref data this year, and so there are slight tweaks to the methodology, generally in ways that should lead to greater precision.
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play.  Fluctuates at the team level with fielding, although chance events can have effects as well.

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