The Giants: (Playing the) Best Defense in the Majors.
by Justin Bopp on May 17, 2010 8:39 AM EDT
in Visuals Above Replacement
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PrintGraph of the Day is back.
The Giants have the best defense a team could hope for, according to UZR/150.
Data and Notes after the jump.
1. Data pulled 05-16-10 via Fangraphs.
2. Distribution is for all players with a minimum of 150 innings.
| San Francisco | UZR | UZR/150 | |
| 1B | Aubrey Huff | 0.6 | 4.0 |
| 2B | Juan Uribe | 1.6 | 19.4 |
| SS | Edgar Renteria | 1.0 | 10.4 |
| 3B | Pablo Sandoval | 0.8 | 5.1 |
| LF | Mark DeRosa | 2.1 | 20.9 |
| CF | Aaron Rowand | 2.6 | 22.4 |
| RF | Nate Shierholtz | 3.9 | 16.4 |
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When a whole team is like this - especially players not known for their defense - I tend to think there's something with the batted ball distribution
Or just something with small sample size.
Maybe I’m wrong though.
park adjustment?
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Maybe
But UZR has tended to have park issues in specific positions. Looking at the OF maybe PacBell is one of those places.
A quick glance:
1. CF – UZR has Rowand in somewhat of a see-saw career with defense. He had 25, 17, and 19 in Chicago, 1 and 4 in Philly, and a -6 and +9 before this year. We can agree on small sample size.
2. LF – DeRosa has always been somewhat of a utility guy, logging plays at 2B, SS, 3B, RF, and LF throughout his career. Possibly also a sample size issue.
3. RF – UZR has Shierholtz consistently playing very well in RF in his short career.
Regardless, I’ll change the title to be slightly more appropriate.
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Yeah, I don't think they're bad defensively
(i.e. not the Dodgers), but they’re not all Franklin Gutierrez out there either.
by Dan Turkenkopf on May 17, 2010 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions
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You blew my lead-in to Wednesday!
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DeRosa
In OF play previously, mostly RF, DeRosa has done well defensively there, though small samples.
But the thing about him is that if you examine his career numbers, almost no matter where you put him, he puts up good defensive numbers per UZR/150.
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by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 17, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, he’s negative at every infield position and positive at only LF and RF (SSS with 1B, SS, LF, and somewhat with RF though).
Goodbye, Steven Johnson, we hardly knew ye. Seriously, that was short.
Rowand
I would add that this off-season, he finally realized that he needs to get into shape for the baseball season, as an acknowledgement to age, so he actually got in exercise this off-season, in hopes of lasting a whole season instead of hitting the wall mid-way. So perhaps his improved defense is a reflection of him being in better shape, allowing him to field like he once did when younger.
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"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"The objective is that World Series ring" - The Kid
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 17, 2010 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm a Giants fan
I was wondering how much of the ballpark and pitching staff is a factor for these stats? That being said, Aubrey Huff has been a pleasant surprise at 1st base this year.
"Even the Swedes are getting mad."-Randy Hahn
"It's very cozy in the sin bin."-Randy Hahn
What are your thoughts on the possibility of Huff moving to LF and Posey playing first?
I personally think it’s a horrible idea. Why move Posey off catcher just because you have a Molina?
by Dan Turkenkopf on May 17, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
My Friend
Your right in the wheelhouse of every Giants fan who comments over at McCovey Chronicles. We were perplexed as to why they resigned Molina in the offseason because we knew that meant Posey would be stuck in the Minor Leagues.
Your right. Why move Posey to 1st base or any other position because of Molina. At this point I’d rather have Posey as the Catcher with Huff at 1st and Molina on the bench. With the Giants frustrating front office though, it isn’t happening this season.
"Even the Swedes are getting mad."-Randy Hahn
"It's very cozy in the sin bin."-Randy Hahn
With absolutely zero point of reference
Maybe they don’t actually want Posey in the Majors yet? I’m actually holding out for the delusional justification for the same thing in KC—sign a bunch of mediocre aging veterans for too much money so your high school draft picks can get a little seasoned in the minors.
Of course, that only works if you have draft picks worth “seasoning.”
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by Justin Bopp on May 17, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Posey played in college
But your right. The Giants don’t want Posey in the Majors yet, but no because of “seasoning” but because they don’t want his arbitration to kick in yet.
"Even the Swedes are getting mad."-Randy Hahn
"It's very cozy in the sin bin."-Randy Hahn
That's why I put it in quotes.
;)
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by Justin Bopp on May 17, 2010 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah
I see. “Seasoning” means my team is too cheap to bring up their best prospects to the Majors.
"Even the Swedes are getting mad."-Randy Hahn
"It's very cozy in the sin bin."-Randy Hahn
I can understand leaving him in the minors if you don't think you're going to compete this season
But switching him off catcher? That doesn’t make much sense.
by Dan Turkenkopf on May 17, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Like calling up a 20-year-old top starting pitching prospect
turning him into a middle reliever and then asking him to focus on his fastball?
It’s like they read, “How to screw up a flamethrowing pitching prospect”
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by Satchel Price on May 17, 2010 12:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
They are not switching him off catcher
That is just the delusion of certain Giants fans.
The Giants want to be able to keep Posey in the lineup for more than 130-140 games a season at catcher. So they want to be able to start him at 1B and get him in the lineup for 150+ games a season.
I don’t see how hard it is to understand that, but Giants fans are so desperate that they conjure up things like this. (though it is not just them, I see a lot of media outside of SF suggest the same thing).
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"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
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by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 17, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Alternative view
The Giants management has said a number of times that they are not holding back Posey because of money, that they will bring him up when they think that he is ready.
Giants fans are like any fans and think that someone hits well in AAA will translate to the majors, but they don’t know about players like Weiters last season who had just a high regard, if not higher, for his hitting than Posey, and he came up and did poorly (sub-700 OPS) until the last two weeks of the season. They think he will walk on water once he comes up.
They also don’t follow closely enough to know that Posey’s MLE in April was low 700 OPS because he wasn’t really hitting that well, he just started hitting well in May and caught everyone’s attention. So basically they are hoping his two weeks of hot hitting outweighs the month of relatively poor hitting in April (plus his relatively poor hitting in 2009, his MLE was not that great, at least not “fix up the offense to greatness” which they all seem to think he will do once the Giants put him in).
The Giants are smart and patient. They don’t want to bring Posey up and see if he sticks, they want to bring him up and keep him up. The fans don’t care about that. The offense has a hiccup and thus the sky is falling and you have to bring up your phenom.
I think the Huff to LF rumors are more to allow Uribe to stay in the lineup by moving Panda to 1B, Huff to LF and Uribe can play 3B. Alternatively, Sanchez was great defensively at 3B before while only average at 2B, so they could play Sanchez at 3B and Uribe at 2B (doubtful as Bochy doesn’t like to move players around, but he did it with DeRosa, briefly, playing him at 2B, and if they move Huff in this situation, he’s being moved too, as well as Sandoval).
But it just gave some desperate fans the opportunity to clamor for Posey. He’s the catcher of the future, get used to it, why they complain while both Molina and Huff have 800+ OPS, I have no idea, it could hurt the offense if Posey stumbles coming in while disrupting two players who are currently hitting well.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"The objective is that World Series ring" - The Kid
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 17, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure which one of your replies this fits best under, BUT
it’s also worth considering that at some point, a hitter “that good” has no business taking the daily beating of that a catcher takes. See: Why Joe Mauer will eventually be moved from behind the plate.
(so it makes sense for Posey to get out some of the eventual errors-of-concentration that happen during a position switch in the minors where he will be relatively isolated from public backlash)
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This has always perplexed me somewhat with Posey. It’s a well-known argument – amongst people tracking the situation, anyway – that Posey’s bat has more value as a catcher than as a first basemen. So there’s somewhat of a conundrum of his being placed behind the plate in the first place, if he’s only destined to move elsewhere later in his career. I’d rather see as a career 2B then to move him around and potentially shortening his career just so they can shoehorn him into a place where he is more valuable.
Maybe this is too much of a long view of the situation; maybe the Giants won’t even try to keep him past free agency. But it’s hard to deny that the whole situation is becoming borderline ridiculous. But I can only hope that Molina is true to form, slumps his way through the summer, and then Posey will get the call and they will make the transition official. Only then will this demon be exorcised.
Adoptive father of the enigmatic Michael Sandoval, and living vicariously through his proximity to Joe Mauer and the Panda.
Posey ought to follow the Craig Biggio career path: have him primarily catch for the first 4-6 years, with occasional starts at 2B/3B, gradually increasing his playing time at 2B/3B until he’s starting every game there.
Goodbye, Steven Johnson, we hardly knew ye. Seriously, that was short.
The Giants management has said a number of times that they are not holding back Posey because of money, that they will bring him up when they think that he is ready.
They can’t directly state that they’re leaving him down b/c of financial reasons or the union will pitch a fit (and they’d be right).
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After idea.
Why waste Posey’s defensive skills at catcher like that?
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by Satchel Price on May 17, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
If Posey is the Giants catcher of the future, he needs to play Catcher in the Majors, not another position. I know the Giants would like his bat, but they shouldn’t sacrifice his development behind the plate.
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Especially when they talked about how they wanted him to improve his receiving.
You have a catcher with a plus arm, solid power, plus hitting ability, a developed approach at the plate, and the need to refine his receiving and gamecalling skills… and you ask him to play first base?
If they’re really so set on getting Posey into the lineup, which certainly is a reasonable feeling to have, then it’d make more sense to let him take time away from Molina than from Huff. And frankly, this problem should never have existed in the first place, because the Giants had no business re-signing Molina when they already had Posey.
They really could’ve spent that Molina/Huff/DeRosa money better.
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I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on May 17, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Then if he hit poorly like Weiters did when he was brought up last year, then the fans would blame Giants management for not signing Molina when they had the chance.
Fans never take responsibility for the consequences of what they write, they don’t consider what happens if they are wrong. The Giants did the right thing signing Molina, Posey was no sure thing to start hitting immediately, and he still had problems defensively (see Baseball America’s assessment). The best move was to prepare him to catch full-time in 2011 and signing Molina gives them the time to let his progress be the reason he is brought up, not because they hope his offense and defense is ready.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"The objective is that World Series ring" - The Kid
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on May 17, 2010 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
If And/Or When The Giants Do This The Answer To This Question Is Really Quite Simple
This will only happen if the Giants remain in contention (which I expect they will) and they believe doing this for the remainder of 2010 gives them the best chance at making the playoffs in 2010. Winning now (if you have a real shot) always trumps optimizing player development. If the Giants believe that Molina at catcher with Posey at 1B and Huff in LF provides more production (offense and defense combined) then any of these three on the bench and someone else starting then this is exactly what they should do. Further the development impact to Posey as a catcher can be mitigated by having Posey get the backup starts (catching the MLB staff) which very soon might be all that is really left to complete his development as a catcher.
by giantsrainman on May 17, 2010 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
"Graph of the day is back"
Yay!
WTY's ERA+ = 159 : - ) -- Kevin Frandsen > Brandon Wood??????
by Figgi4life on May 17, 2010 10:50 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
YES, HELLO AGAIN GRAPH OF THE DAY!!!!
You lookin’ so fine, too. Glad to have you back!
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by Justin Bopp on May 17, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd like to do more distribution-style graphs.
There are some beautiful curves out there just waiting to be discovered and displayed for all to see. Let me know if you have any in mind.
Side note/question: UZR/150 worked about as perfectly as possible. Any chance that’s intentional?
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UZR is baselined to 0
And apparently is pretty normally distributed. I don’t think I’m that surprised by that, but I’m not sure if it’s by design or simply the way the population works out.
It is a really nice curve though.
by Dan Turkenkopf on May 17, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
@150 minimum innings, I think it was around 213 qualified players.
The part that jumps out to me is that it appears (visually, as I don’t have the data in front of me) that the vast majority of the population is somewhere between -10 and +10. That makes me happy.
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by Justin Bopp on May 17, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
hmm
I’m surprised Shierholtz has the smallest UZR/150 of the 3 outfielders. To the naked eye he certainly looks like the outfielder with the most range (except when Torres is playing).
If you don't like Brandon Medders you're not a true fan.
From what I remember...
…Nate tends to shade heavily toward center to cut off the alley. Maybe his positioning messes with the numbers a bit.
And maybe we’re not paying enough attention to the whole SSS issue. The defense has been better than anticipated (at least as I anticipated) and while I’ll take it, I’m not ready to declare Uribe, DeRosa, and Rowand GG favorites yet.
Please tell me we have moved past the dark ages of post hoc ergo propter hoc.
by Yeti Monster on May 17, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Haven’t you heard? You have to be a good hitter in order to win a Gold Glove, unless your name is Omar Vizquel.
Adoptive father of the enigmatic Michael Sandoval, and living vicariously through his proximity to Joe Mauer and the Panda.
Not only does he have better range than Rowad, DeRosa, Velez, or Bowker, but he’s got the best arm on the team and he’s quite adept at the diving catch (that is, he’s a very good judge of whether he can make a dive; he doesn’t often dive and miss and let the ball get by him for extra bases).
Goodbye, Steven Johnson, we hardly knew ye. Seriously, that was short.
Weren't they one of the top two or thre teams last year?
in team UZR anyway…
And I think the fact that AT&T is the only park with the Field F/X system may give the Giants some “inside” knowledge on optimum positioning…
Great point--and interesting thought.
I actually need to look at the UZR totals that FG had (which prompted this GotD). Are they totaling all players or just their starters? I’m approached it like it included everyone.
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It Does Indeed Include All Playing Time By Anyone At 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, & RF
But Team UZR does leave out pitchers and catchers as UZR does not currently measure defense for these positions.
by giantsrainman on May 17, 2010 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Glad this confirms what everyone who watches Pablo Sandoval thinks and denies what everyone who doesn’t watch Pablo Sandoval thinks: he’s a solid defensive 3B.
Goodbye, Steven Johnson, we hardly knew ye. Seriously, that was short.
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