Mariners at Rays BtB Series Preview

by stevesommer05 on May 14, 2010 2:02 PM EDT

The Rays and Mariners both have teams that were projected to be phenomenal defensively. Unfortunately for the Mariners, that's about where the similarities end. The Rays have a pythagorean record of 25-9 (one better than their actual record) and were 3rd in the most recent BtB Power Rankings. On the other hand the Mariners have a pythagorean record of 14-20 (also one better than their actual) and were 25th in the BtB Rankings (one spot ahead of the Royals!)

The best place to see the divergence of the two teams is to compare the offenses. The following chart looks at projected wOBA by lineup slot for the respective teams. The lineups used were what I could glean from recent lineups and use preseason projections combined with this years data.

Clearly the Rays hold the edge (often substantially) at most spots in the order. These projections are mostly indicative of reality as well as the Rays have scored 75 more runs than the Mariners so far and have a 44 run edge in runs created (RC).

A similar look at the defense (using my projections combined with CHONE for the players I did not poject)

shows that both teams were projected to be well above average defensively (even given current injuries). In this look, Seattle does have the edge in the aggregate, but it's not an overwhelming edge like they would have against most other teams. Of note, I haven't updated the defensive projections to reflect and data form this year yet like I have with the offense and pitching.

The final part of the equation is pitching. The following chart breaks down the Matchups for the series using the CHONE context neutral (ie no defense or park adjustments) ERA and current xFIP.

The edge goes to Tampa Bay except in the game that Cliff Lee is slated to pitch (SP3).

What happens when we add all of that up? I've devised a methodology which I've outlined here and here that I can use to simulate series and get a distribution of results. Applying that methodology using the inputs outlined in the charts above yields the following

Tampa's offensive advantages make this series appear fairly lopsided on paper, but that's only on paper. Even looking at the chart above Seattle will still win the series about 1 in 4 times.

Finally, feel free to drop suggestions for next weeks series in the comments

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Great stuff

Free Dan Johnson!

by Sveet on May 14, 2010 2:26 PM EDT reply actions

Steve (or anyone with a response), what do you think of Jose Lopez's defensive numbers?

He was always below average at second, but he’s got a +12 DRS and a +8 UZR already at third base. Obviously I haven’t seen him enough to have any idea how reflective that is of his work at the hot corner, but do you guys think that Lopez is actually emerging as a plus defender there?

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on May 14, 2010 2:59 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Yeah

I definitely haven’t seen enough first hand to speak to it… Maybe Jeff Sullivan or someone could weigh in. I probably do need to start updating the defensive projections with in season data like I do with the other stuff though. I also probably need to redo my D projections anyhow with UZR being slightly different now.

Beyond the Box Score | Play a Hard Nine | Twitter

by stevesommer05 on May 14, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Those UZR updates really helped it's credibility with the public

It seemed like a lot of the relatively less educated baseball fans kept pointing towards Ellsbury’s UZR as an example of why it’s worthless.

Obviously that argument was flawed for a few reasons, but fixing some of the really weird results that it produced in some ballparks should help to make it more widespread.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on May 14, 2010 3:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

And yeah, I'd love to hear from an M's fan (Jeff S??) on the Lopez thing

Because Lopez ends up being a pretty valuable everyday player if he’s a legitimate plus defender.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on May 14, 2010 3:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Amazed for the most part.

Jeff and Matthew go over Lopez’s defense a bit in their podcast this week. So far, Lopez playing 3B is turning out to be better than anyone had dreamed. Now if only his offense would return…

by ThundaPC on May 15, 2010 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Since this seems to be the open thread for today

Anyone know what happened to Swisher?

by Dan Turkenkopf on May 14, 2010 8:23 PM EDT reply actions

Reportedly he left with sore biceps again

And apparently after he left he went to get an MRI. Obviously the results haven’t come out yet though.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on May 14, 2010 8:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Thanks Satch

Hope he’s okay.. The Yanks can’t play both Winn and Thames every day.

by Dan Turkenkopf on May 14, 2010 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know if I hope he's okay, I'm not exactly pro-Yabkees

But I’m guessing that most Yankees fans aren’t too excited about a Thames/Gardner/Winn outfield, as you noted, especially considering the platoon splits of the corner outfield guys.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on May 14, 2010 9:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I am totally confused

Well, I don’t see an xFIP graph, but that’s not the main issue.

Aren’t you double counting? You’re using both ERA and then on TOP of it defensive adjustments? ERA is already affected by defense.

by themastah on May 15, 2010 1:11 PM EDT reply actions

I use a context neutral ERA (i.e. projected with no thought to defense) and back that out to a context neutral Runs Allowed. From that I subtract the defense. Using the context neutral projection is a recent change, but I’ve always backed ERA out to Runs Allowed. Sorry that wasn’t clear in the other explanatory posts.

There’s no chart specifically for xFIP because I just use that as in in-season adjustment for the projection

Beyond the Box Score | Play a Hard Nine | Twitter

by stevesommer05 on May 15, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Let me clarify a little more

I needed an estimate of Runs Allowed behind a neutral defense (from which I will subtract defense). Also I wanted a “True Talent” estimate of Runs Allowed. I figured the best way to get at that was to use a projection as it uses a sufficient sample and sufficient regression etc. Thus I am now using CHONE context neutral ERA and turning that into runs allowed by dividing by 0.92 (I’ve also seen 0.93 I think, but either way take the ERA and turn it into runs allowed). I also want to update the projection and I’m doing that manually and using xFIP and the current year true talent. I do a weighted average of the projection and xFIP.

Beyond the Box Score | Play a Hard Nine | Twitter

by stevesommer05 on May 15, 2010 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions