Best of Sabermetrics: May 2010

by Sky Kalkman on May 1, 2010 12:12 PM EDT

Sure, we've missed a few months, but it's never too late to jump back on the horse. This thread is for two things:

Sharing any links published since February that are worth remembering for the year-end Saber Awards.
Sharing any new links throughout the month of May that are worth reading (and thus thus remembering for the year-end Saber Awards.)

Hopefully we'll remember to start a new thread for June. This one will be anchored in the Featured Stories widget in the right sidebar until then, for easy reference. Link away!

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Swartz n’ Seidman’s five-part SIERA series. Here’s part one:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10027

Crashburn Alley

by Crashburn Alley on May 1, 2010 12:16 PM EDT reply actions

I we’re not voting yet, but SECOND!

Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue

by PWHjort on May 1, 2010 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Thawing out frozen ropes, by Colin Wyers

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10523

Examining biases in batted ball classifications.

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 2, 2010 11:28 AM EDT reply actions

Hitter scouting reports, by Sky Andrecheck

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2010/03/hitter_scouting.php

“Looking at the evidence, it appears that when trying to identify a hitter’s strengths and weaknesses against particular pitches, looking at how he actually did against those pitches is not a particular useful measure. More indicative is the frequency which a batter was thrown each pitch. The better a hitter is against a particular pitch, they less often he will see it.”

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 2, 2010 11:38 AM EDT reply actions

Fantastic article.

by RedRobot8 on May 2, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Apparently the Indians agree.

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 7, 2010 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Throw your calculators away, by Morgan Ensberg

http://morganensberg.wordpress.com/2010/03/23/you-can-throw-your-calculators-away/

I thought it was a very helpful commentary/opinion piece, and we have a category for those, too, right?

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 2, 2010 11:43 AM EDT reply actions

If not, we will.

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by Sky Kalkman on May 2, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Using spray charts to examine wrist injuries, by Jeff Zimmerman

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/3/18/1379187/using-spray-charts-to-examine

Looking to see if a hitter can pull the ball with power as an indicator of recovery from a wrist injury.

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 2, 2010 11:46 AM EDT reply actions

This article induced me to have one last bout of David Ortiz optimism.

Oops.

by RedRobot8 on May 2, 2010 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe not so misplaced after all?

You can convince yourself of anything if the sample size is small enough. :)

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 20, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Ball-in-play mapping tool, by Sean Kelly

http://katron.org/projects/baseball/hit-location/

for the resources category

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 2, 2010 11:47 AM EDT reply actions

Improving pitcher projections, by John R. Mayne

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/content/article/improving-pitcher-projections/

Looking at fastball velocity to find pitchers likely to exceed or fail to fulfill their CHONE projections.

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 2, 2010 11:50 AM EDT reply actions

State of sabermetrics: Insights from the 2010 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, by Sal Baxamusa

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/state-of-sabermetrics-insights-from-the-2010-sloan-sports-analytics-confere/

very good commentary

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 2, 2010 11:54 AM EDT reply actions

Statistical significance is only one piece of evidence, by Phil Birnbaum

http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2010/03/statistical-significance-is-only-one.html

Good tutorial/education piece on drawing statistical conclusions in baseball.

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 2, 2010 11:57 AM EDT reply actions

Prospect prizefights, by Jeff Sackmann

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/prospect-prizefights/

and the companion article: “Mano a mano”
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/mano-a-mano/

“What is more indicative of future professional success: a relatively large sample against lower-quality competition, or a relatively small sample against higher-quality competition?”

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 2, 2010 12:04 PM EDT reply actions

Tangotiger v Rodney Fort

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/tangotiger_v_rodney_fort/

A discussion about the meaning of replacement value in terms of economics

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 2, 2010 12:06 PM EDT reply actions

This was very interesting,

at least for a pseudo-economist. I couldn’t help but feel that Tango dominated.

by RedRobot8 on May 2, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

He usually does

by vivaelpujols on May 5, 2010 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Do we have a painting category?

http://www.3-dbaseball.net/2010/03/christy-mathewson-painting.html

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 2, 2010 12:14 PM EDT reply actions

That was awesome, one of the coolest non-stats baseball links I've ever come across.

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by Sky Kalkman on May 2, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

the Oliver projection system is certainly worthy of something

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/introducing-oliver/

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 2, 2010 12:25 PM EDT reply actions

Dave Allen's series on Chipper Jones and first pitch swinging

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chipper-first-pitches-and-saber-mided-reporting/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/17131/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/are-ahitters-more-aggressive-on-first-pitches-from-good-pitchers
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-last-look-at-first-pitch-aggressiveness/

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 2, 2010 12:27 PM EDT reply actions

Great insight here.

I think that the game theory dynamics of the hitter-pitcher confrontation are ripe for a seminal research piece.

by RedRobot8 on May 2, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Okay, I'll stop for now.

Sky, do you have a link to the February list?

Did we get Josh’s player injury database on that list?

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 2, 2010 12:29 PM EDT reply actions

Here you go:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/2/5/1296059/best-of-sabermetrics-january-2010

(These, plus any other type of linkage articles will be in the “Best of Sabermetrics” section linked in the front page sidebar and just below the title of this post.)

And thanks for all those, Mike. Did you have those bookmarked, or just remember them all?

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by Sky Kalkman on May 2, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I looked through my Twitter feed to see what I'd rec'd there

Plus I browsed back through a few of my favorite sites and authors to refresh my memory.

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 2, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

"How Much Do We Really Know About The Strike Zone?" by Dan Turkenkopf

Vitally important to look at as we attempt to advance the quality of Pitch F/X analysis and expand its applications. A frustrating reality check.

by RedRobot8 on May 2, 2010 1:54 PM EDT reply actions

I think the concept of checking on the strike zone is good

I have a lot of doubts about Dan’s methodology and implementation, however.

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 2, 2010 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Eh. That perhaps comes off more negatively than I meant it to.

I think Dan’s article was a good starting point.

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 2, 2010 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know nearly as much about Pitch F/X as you do, so I'll defer to your judgment.

I would be very interested to see a similar study from you with your preferred methodology and implementation at some point. No pressure, I just love your work.

by RedRobot8 on May 2, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I have doubts about my methodology and implementation too :)

What specifically jumps out at you?

by Dan Turkenkopf on May 3, 2010 5:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Well

I’m concerned first that if there is a park-to-park difference in the overall percentage of called strikes, this might affect your numbers, and secondly that you’re giving equal weight to all “missed” calls outside a given rectangle, which could be VERY sensitive to noise, and thirdly that I couldn’t figure out what the park factor number you come up with means (either physically or in terms of adjusting something by a percentage).

I like Ike Hall’s approach from the 2008 summit better.

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 3, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't think the overall called strike percentage is going to matter since this was all relative to % of called pitches

But maybe I’m missing something.

The equal weight thing theoretically should average out over some period of time – whether that’s longer than a few years is a good question though.

And the park factor is just like a run park factor – a park factor of 50 means that the net number of missed pitches that were strikes was twice the league average. Park Factor is (roughly) : (AS-AB)/ACP / (HS-HB)/HCP plus adjustments.

The reason this should work out (I think) is that I used John Walsh’s strike zones which were set at essentially the “median” – where 50% of the pitches are called strikes and 50% are called balls.

I’m not familiar with Ike’s approach (or if I am, I’ve forgotten it). Do you have a link?

by Dan Turkenkopf on May 4, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Ike's presentation is in the zip file here

http://baseball.sportvision.com/summit/2008

By called strike percentage, I meant called strikes as a percentage of called pitches. I assume that varies by park, although I don’t know how the random variation compares to the systematic variation, if any. But if there is systematic variation, it seemed to me like this would bias your results.

Winner, Beyond the Box Score 32 Predictions Contest, 2009

by Mike Fast on May 7, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions